Title: Weather and Climate Information: For Agricultural Production and Food Security
1Weather and Climate InformationFor
Agricultural Production and Food Security
- Simon Gathara
- Ministry of Environment and Mineral Resources
- Kenya Meteorological Department
Agrometeorological Division
2Introduction
- Kenya Meteorological Department (KMD) operates
the following observing stations - 37 Synoptic stations ( 24 Hrs manned by KMD)
- 14 Agrometeorological stations (8 hrs manned by
KMD and some by other institutions - 24 Automatic Weather Stations (12 more soon)
- 1,000 Rainfall stations (manned by volunteers)
- Temperature stations (manned by volunteers)
3NETWORK OF AGROMETEOROLOGICAL STATIONS
4Introduction ------Contd
- In synoptic stations data observed include
- Rainfall
- Temperature
- Relative Humidity
- Wind Speed and Direction
- Sunshine hours
- Radiation
- Pressure
5Data observed on crops at the Agro-meteorological
stations
- Variety of the grown crop
- Stage of development attained by the crop
- General assessment of crop performance
- Damage by pests, diseases and adverse weather
- State of weeding in the farm
- Plant density
- Soil moisture
6Types of Forecasts
- KMD makes forecasts on the following time scales
- Daily
- 4 day
- 7 day
- 10 day
- Monthly
- Seasonal
-
- In all these cases efforts are made to monitor
the socio economic impacts of the expected
weather on various sectors.
7Agrometeorological Products Services
- Products include
- 10- Day Crop and Weather Review (Dekadal
Bulletin). - Monthly Agrometeorological Bulletin (Advisories
on Impacts on Agriculture and Livestock
Production). - Seasonal bulletins. These give advisories on
start and end of particular rainy season hence
length of growing seasons. - Tailor made products as specified by the user.
- Advisory Services include
- Advisories on the rainfall distribution of
specified areas - Advisories on risk of planting early or late in
the season - Advisories on adverse effects of weather on
crops - Advisories on influence of weather on outbreak of
crop pests and diseases - Advisory services on harvest and post harvest
operations - Advisories on pastures and general water status
for livestock and wildlife
810- Day Crop Weather Review (Dekadal Bulletin)
- This bulletin is Published every 10 days and
distributed to users. The bulletin describes the
weather of the past 10-days period and its impact
on crop performance and also gives the weather
outlook for the coming 10 days and expected
impacts to agriculture and Livestock production.
9Monthly Bulletin
- A monthly bulletin is published once a month and
it carries information on collected
meteorological and Agrometeorological data on
climatic conditions, development of the weather
and a description of crop performance during the
month. Description of the development of pasture
and crop water satisfaction within the month.
10PHENOLOGICAL OBSERVATIONS (emergence)
11PHENOLOGICAL OBSERVATIONS (100 ninth leaf)
12PHENOLOGICAL OBSERVATIONS(65 tasseling)
13PHENOLOGICALOBSERVATION(100 Full ripeness)
14APPLICATION OF AGROMETEOROLOGICAL INFORMATION
Left Maize cob Used neither certified seeds nor
Agrometeorological Information Middle Maize
cob Used certified seeds but did not utilize
Agrometeorological Information Right Maize
cob Used both certified seeds and
Agrometeorological Information
15IMPACTS OF PROLONGED DROUGHT
Drought results in inadequate pasture water for
livestock and wildlife. This often leads to human
and animal conflicts. The pastoral communities
are forced to migrate in search of water and
pastures.
16Prolonged droughts result in land degradation
exposing the land to wind and water soil erosion.
This leads to soil infertility and
desertification.
17Severe drought results in death of livestock and
wildlife resulting in loss of livelihood of the
pastoral communities.
18Severe droughts result in crop failure leading to
food insecurity and warranting food relief
contingencies.
19Prolonged drought results in lack of adequate
water for domestic use leading to communities
trekking for long distances in search of the
precious commodity.
20The Role KMD Can Play in Provision of Crop
Climatic Needs
- KMD has historical data in some stations ranging
from the late years of 1800s to date. - Climatic means (averages) including daily,
monthly and annuals of all the aforementioned
parameters have been established and can be made
available if a user needs to compare current
values with the long term means - Using the long series of rainfall data, mean
dates of onset and cessation of the rain seasons
have been established and the dates of earliest
onset and cessations established. i.e with
appropriate standard deviations
21The Role KMD Can Play in Provision of Crop
Climatic Needs
- KMD is able to give the farmer (user), the risks
associated with dry/wet spells of given lengths
if he plants early, at time of onset and late - This information is of use to plan whether to
intercrop. - In as far as thermal needs of a crop is
concerned, KMD is able to provide probabilities
of given ranges of temperature in order to
ascertain some harmful events e.g frost and
during growing period to be able to judge whether
crops optimum conditions are able to be met if
the same is being introduced
22The Role KMD Can Play in Provision of Crop
Climatic Needs
- Whereas most of KMD forecasts indicate
terminologies such as above Normal, Below Normal
and Normal with assistance of the
Agrometeorological services, the same may be
quantified for use in yield estimation. - KMD has statistical and crop simulation models
which use meteorological and climatological data
to monitor crop development. - Simple crop specific water balance models are
currently being used in KMD to monitor crop
development and to an extent estimate yield. - KMDs data being at point value, may not be able
to provide estimates over large areas, however
with collaboration areal averaging can be done to
facilitate such estimates
23Conclusions
- KMD assists agricultural activities through
provision of seasonal weather forecasts with
long lead times in order that farmers can plan in
advance - Tailored information of events within the season
can also be made available - There is need for collaborative approach in the
provision of meteorological products - Though the KMD Network of stations is sparse, the
gaps can be filled through remote sensing - From point values, Crop-weather models can form a
compliment in crop monitoring and early Warning - Met dept has a sustained effort to provide marine
and oceanography information and Fisheries Dept
can be able to access this information for
planning.
24THANK YOU