Main results of the Break-out session on Tendency Surveys

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Main results of the Break-out session on
Tendency Surveys

• Gian Paolo Oneto
• Istat

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The main issue emerging from the discussion
concerns the need of Guidelines in the practice
and development of tendency surveys the
resulting practical proposal is about an Handbook

• Practical utility of the Handbook
• The Handbook on Tendency Surveys is intended for
  those that carry out tendency surveys and those
  who use composite tendency indicators.
• Drawing on a wide range of experience and
  expertise, the handbook should outlines
  harmonization practices for
• questionnaire design,
• survey questions,
• survey execution (sample design, frame,
  reference list)
• data processing (weighting, treatment of non
  responses..)
• the use of results (disseminaton, seasonal
  adjsustement, calculation of sentiment
  indicators).

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More on the contents of the Handbook..
The handbook is intended to assist those that
carry out surveys by helping to create an
harmonized list of questions by economic
activity. The handbook can be used as a guide
through the process of setting up sample survey
operations and data processing. The handbook will
provide guidance for dissemination of survey
results. but The handbook will guide users on
the applicability of tendency surveys with
respect to macroeconomic situations. It is
intended to serve the needs of analytical users
by making them aware of the statistical methods
and techniques employed in tendency surveys and
composite tendency indicators.
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Reasons to go further with respect to the
guidelines currently provided by EC and by Oecd

A new handbook should go further by taking into
consideration additional economic sectors and the
needs of developing countries. The new handbook
can be relevant as an internationally approved
set of guidelines applicable to all countries and
multiple economic activities. The Handbook will
be useful for national statisticians and
organizations that carry out and analyze tendency
surveys.
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A tentative table of contents has been tabled
TABLE OF CONTENTS 1. INTRODUCTION 2. SAMPLE
DESIGN (Survey frame, Sampling, Contacts with
respondents, Periodicity and timeliness) 3.1.
QUESTIONNAIRE DESIGN 3.2. STANDARD HARMONISED
QUESTIONNAIRES (by survey) 4. DATA PROCESSING,
QUALITY AND ANALYSIS ( Measurement and processing
errors, Aggregation and weighting Conversion of
multiple-choice questions into quantitative time
series, seasonal adjustment) (continue)

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TABLE OF CONTENTS (2) 5. USE OF TENDENCY SURVEY
RESULTS a. Nowcasting and forecasting
macroeconomic aggregates b. Confidence and
sentiment indicators how to synthesize the
information contained in tendency surveys c.
Applications of tendency surveys in business
cycle analysis and turning points dating and
detection 6. DATA DISSEMINATION AND
PUBLICATION (Metadata, Publication
procedures) ANNEX (online) Country practices
sample questionnaires

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Open questions...
Is there an operational consensus about the
scope of the new Handbook, based on the standard
approach of Official Statistics Manuals? Are
there controversial questions in the second
tier of the Handbook (the one focused on the
construction and utilisation of confidence
indicators) ? What can be the organizational
arrangement best suited to launch this project
(an Expert Group)? What are the International
organizations ready to take the lead?