Trends in biodiversity and environmental quality: Looking forward Jurgen Tack Anik Schneiders, Stijn Overloop, Myriam Dumortier, Maarten Hens, Luc De Bruyn, Johan Peymen, Toon Van Daele, Wouter Van Reeth, Anja De Braekeleer,

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Trends in biodiversity and environmental
qualityLooking forwardJurgen TackAnik
Schneiders, Stijn Overloop, Myriam Dumortier,
Maarten Hens, Luc De Bruyn, Johan Peymen, Toon
Van Daele, Wouter Van Reeth, Anja De Braekeleer,
Purple Conference 26/5/2010
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(No Transcript)
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Looking forward landuse 2030
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WFD
Floods Dir
Energy Dir
Biodiv 2010
Groundwater Dir
Natura 2000
EU white paper
Nitrate Dir
Climate change
Biodiversity
Sustainable watermanagement
MEA Ecosystem Serv.
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Environment Nature exploration
Looking forward
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Environment outlook Nature outlook
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Land use model Flanders
Subtitel
gt Tekst
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Scenarios
Land use Reference
Environmental Quality (reference)
Land use Segregation
Land use Multifunctional
Socio-economics
Climate
Land use Reference
Environmental Quality (Europe)
Land use Segregation
Land use Multifunctional
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UrbanisationDistance to green areas for
inhabitants

• Accessibility of green areas decline
• Peri-urban areas increase

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Policy scenarios for agriculture
environment- unchanged policy Reference
scenario shrinking land use by 5 in 25
years growing productivity (tonnes/ha)-
alternative policy Europe scenario - manure
policy 140 kg N/ha - manure processing at
stable prices - lower nutrient content in animal
feed - agriculture with environmental and nature
objectives
Chapter Agriculture
Environment Outlook 2030
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Agriculture change in land use
gt Reference decrease of 5 gt Europa decrease of
3 Increase AEN
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Agriculture with environment nature objectives
gt Europe-2030 increase in fields with
environment nature objectives
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Critical load (nitrogen)
gt Decrease in areas overrunning the critical
load according to the vegetation
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Conclusion

• Urbanisation increase
• Agricultural areas decrease
• European goals demand larger areas for
  agricultural use
• (due to lower production capacity)
• Stricter manure policy is needed to reach water
  targets
• Critical load Europe scenario necessary

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Looking forward rivers 2027
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WFD
Floods Dir
Energy Dir
Biodiv 2010
Groundwater Dir
Natura 2000
EU white paper
Nitrate Dir
Climate change
Biodiversity
Sustainable watermanagement
MEA Ecosystem Serv.
agriculture
urbanisation
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Water quality
Manure advice, buffer strips, wintergreen cover
Costs
other sources agriculture companies public waste
water treatment
manure decree
Environment Outlook 2030
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Scenarios waterlopen 2027
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Water quality oxygen
2006
R 2015
E 2015
E 2027

• good ecological quality increase after 2027

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Water quality restoration of fish populations
2005
2006
R 2015
E 2015
E 2027
Rheophylic Fish populations sensitive to
pollution
Suitability barrier only migratio low
reproducttion moderate reproduction good
reproduction optimal reproduction

• restoration reproduction capacity after Europe
  2027 scenario

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Water quality suitability for fish
Rheophylic species sensitive for pollution
Vulnerable Tolerant
E27 jump forward Sensitive species maximum
45 of potential habitat
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Conclusions

• Current and complementory measures will lower
  discharges into surface water.
• Fysico-chemical water quality continues to
  increase, but phosphorous remains a major
  problem.
• Phosphorous important limiting factor for
  primary production and macrophyte growth
• Biological quality increases, but in the most
  advanced scenario only between 45 and 60 of the
  rivers reaches a good water quality.

Environment Outlook 2030
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Looking forward climate change
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WFD
Floods Dir
Energy Dir
Biodiv 2010
Groundwater Dir
Natura 2000
EU white paper
Nitrate Dir
Climate change
Biodiversity
Sustainable watermanagement
MEA Ecosystem Serv.
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Climate change temperature
Increase temperature monthly average 2100

• gt Flanders 2100 2,5 tot 9C in summer

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Climate change precipitation
Flanders 2100 2 scenarios increase in winter
precepitation Flanders 2100 all scenarios
decrease in summer precepitation
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Climate change increased flood risk
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Land use changes

• Valley decrease agriculture use, less ncrease
  build up areas, more opportunities for nature

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Climate change
Consequences for marsh vegetations

• Valley Opportunities for nature, for climate
  adaptation, for Carbon stocks,

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Conclusions

• Higher flood capacity will is needed
• Higher risks of drought in summer
• Risk of species loss increases
• resilient ecosystems will be needed
• Opportunities for marsh vegetation in flood areas
• Opportunities for different ecosystem services in
  flood areas

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Some conclusions of the future
Beekforel
Yves Adams
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Goals will Not be reached
Goals will Not be reached
AEN increase needed
Ecosystems with More resilience needed
More buffer Capacity needed
Valley opportunities for adaptation
New holistic approach
Temperature increase
Decrease area Increase AEN
Increase peri urban area