Title: Knowledge Management for UEFA Champions League
1Knowledge Management forUEFA Champions League
By Harsha Gunnam Hetal Mehta Nargis Memon Manish
Wadhwa
2Individual Contributions
Objectives
Basic Findings
Interesting Findings
Future Work
Conclusion
Process
Introduction
Sources
Tasks Harsha Hetal Nargis Manish
Initial Research ? ? ? ?
Literature Review ? ?
Data Extraction ? ? ? ?
Database Creation ? ?
Coefficient Analysis ? ?
Ranking Analysis ? ?
Trend Analysis ? ? ? ?
Prediction of Winners ? ? ? ?
Testing of Results ? ? ? ?
Final Report Presentation ? ? ? ?
3Agenda
Objectives
Basic Findings
Interesting Findings
Future Work
Conclusion
Process
Introduction
Sources
4Introduction
Objectives
Basic Findings
Interesting Findings
Future Work
Conclusion
Process
Introduction
Sources
- UEFA - The governing body of football on the
continent of Europe - Champions League
- Started in 1992
- Most Prestigious Trophy in the Sport
- Current Champion AC Milan
- Format
UEFA Champions League Competition System UEFA Champions League Competition System
1st qualifying round 24
2nd qualifying round 1612
3rd qualifying round 1814
Group stage 1616
First knock-out round 16
Quarter finals 8
Semi-finals 4
Final 2
5Research Objectives
Objectives
Basic Findings
Interesting Findings
Future Work
Conclusion
Process
Introduction
Sources
6Literature Review
Objectives
Basic Findings
Interesting Findings
Future Work
Conclusion
Process
Introduction
Sources
- Papahristodoulou, Christos, "Team Performance in
UEFA Champions League 2005-06." Munich Personal
RePEc Archive (2006) Unpublished, Paper 138 - Barros, Carlos Pestana, Leach, Stephanie,
Performance evaluation of the English Premier
Football League with data envelopment analysis.
Applied Economics Vol. 38 No. 12 (2006)
1449-1458 - http//www.betinf.com/champ.htm
- Sports Betting Information
- http//www.betstudy.com/soccer-stats/c/europe/uefa
-champions-league/ - Online Betting Guide
- http//en.uclpredictor.uefa.com/
- Online Predictor Game
7Research Design
Objectives
Basic Findings
Interesting Findings
Future Work
Conclusion
Process
Introduction
Sources
Coefficient Analysis
Head-to-Head Probability
UEFA Data Source
Ranking Analysis
Data Extraction
Array of Winners
Top 3 Leagues
Excel
Home Away Advantage
Top 12 Teams
8Data Sources
Objectives
Basic Findings
Interesting Findings
Future Work
Conclusion
Process
Introduction
Sources
- UEFA Data Source
- http//www.xs4all.nl/kassiesa/bert/uefa/
- Data collected over 6 seasons
- 2002-2008
- Attributes -
9Basic Findings
Objectives
Basic Findings
Interesting Findings
Future Work
Conclusion
Process
Introduction
Sources
10Coefficient Analysis
Objectives
Basic Findings
Interesting Findings
Future Work
Conclusion
Process
Introduction
Sources
- Standard UEFA Calculations
- Country Coefficient Number of Points/Number of
Teams - Calculation Accuracy 100
- Team Coefficient Number of Points 33 of
Country Coefficient - Calculation Accuracy 100
11Basic Findings
Objectives
Basic Findings
Interesting Findings
Future Work
Conclusion
Process
Introduction
Sources
12Predicted Ranking
Objectives
Basic Findings
Interesting Findings
Future Work
Conclusion
Process
Introduction
Sources
- Accuracy 100
- Years Considered 2003-2008
- Country Ranking Summation of 5 years of Country
Coefficients - Team Ranking Summation of 5 years of Team
Coefficients
13Ranking Analysis - Leagues
Objectives
Basic Findings
Interesting Findings
Future Work
Conclusion
Process
Introduction
Sources
- Observations
- Spain, England and Italy Top three leagues for
the past six seasons - Romania Rapid Improvement
14Top Leagues Teams
Objectives
Basic Findings
Interesting Findings
Future Work
Conclusion
Process
Introduction
Sources
15Ranking Analysis - Teams
Objectives
Basic Findings
Interesting Findings
Future Work
Conclusion
Process
Introduction
Sources
- Observations
- Consistent Team FC Barcelona
- Rapid Improvement Chelsea
16Interesting Findings
Objectives
Basic Findings
Interesting Findings
Future Work
Conclusion
Process
Introduction
Sources
17Head-to-Head Probability Analysis
Objectives
Basic Findings
Interesting Findings
Future Work
Conclusion
Process
Introduction
Sources
- Technique
- Naive Bayes
- Observations
- Strength 6 Teams
- Weakness FC Barcelona
18Head-to-Head Probability Testing
Objectives
Basic Findings
Interesting Findings
Future Work
Conclusion
Process
Introduction
Sources
Team Opponent 2003-07 2008 Prediction
AC Milan Celtic 0.5 0 OK
AC Milan Shakhtar Donetsk 1 1 OK
Arsenal Sparta Praha 1 1 OK
AS Roma Dinamo Kiev -1 1 NOT OK
AS Roma Manchester United 0 -0.75 OK
AS Roma Real Madrid -0.5 1 NOT OK
Chelsea Valencia 0.5 1 OK
FC Barcelona Celtic 0.5 1 OK
Manchester United Olympique Lyon 0 0.5 OK
Real Madrid Olympiakos Piraeus 0.5 0.5 OK
- Technique
- Comparison of the signs of the difference between
the win probability and the lose probability - Matched signs Correct Prediction
- Different signs Incorrect Prediction
- Assumption
- Difference of zero (win-loss) favors both ways
- Accuracy 80
19Interesting Findings
Objectives
Basic Findings
Interesting Findings
Future Work
Conclusion
Process
Introduction
Sources
20Home Away Analysis
Objectives
Basic Findings
Interesting Findings
Future Work
Conclusion
Process
Introduction
Sources
- Technique
- Mapped advantage on the basis of strength.
- Strength level decided by the difference in goals
scored - Very Strong Win with a difference of 2 or more
goals - Strong Win with a difference of 1 goal
- Weak Draw or lose with a difference of 1 goal
- Very Weak Lose with a difference of 2 or more
goals
21Home Away Analysis
Objectives
Basic Findings
Interesting Findings
Future Work
Conclusion
Process
Introduction
Sources
- Observations
- Strongest Home Team AC Milan
- Weakest Home Team Real Madrid
- Strongest Visiting Team Liverpool
- Weakest Visiting Team Chelsea
22Interesting Findings
Objectives
Basic Findings
Interesting Findings
Future Work
Conclusion
Process
Introduction
Sources
23Prediction of Winners
Objectives
Basic Findings
Interesting Findings
Future Work
Conclusion
Process
Introduction
Sources
- Technique
- Assigned values to strength levels
- Aggregated the values of the strength levels
- Team Win Probability (Aggregated Strength Value
Probability) / Number of Matches
24Testing of Final Prediction
Objectives
Basic Findings
Interesting Findings
Future Work
Conclusion
Process
Introduction
Sources
- Dataset considered 2003-2007
- Accuracy
- Home Win 90
- Away Win 100
25Conclusion
Objectives
Basic Findings
Interesting Findings
Future Work
Conclusion
Process
Introduction
Sources
26Applications Future Work
Objectives
Basic Findings
Interesting Findings
Future Work
Conclusion
Process
Introduction
Sources
Applications
Future Work
27References
Objectives
Basic Findings
Interesting Findings
Future Work
Conclusion
Process
Introduction
Sources
- Papahristodoulou, Christos, "Team Performance in
UEFA Champions League 2005-06." Munich Personal
RePEc Archive (2006) Unpublished, Paper 138 - Barros, Carlos Pestana, Leach, Stephanie,
Performance evaluation of the English Premier
Football League with data envelopment analysis.
Applied Economics Vol. 38 No. 12 (2006)
1449-1458 - Websites
- http//www.betinf.com/champ.htm
- http//www.betstudy.com/soccer-stats/c/europe/ue
fa-champions-league/ - http//en.uclpredictor.uefa.com/
- http//www.uefa.com/competitions/ucl/index.html
- http//en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Uefa_Champions_Leag
ue - http//en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bayes_theorem
- http//www.xs4all.nl/kassiesa/bert/uefa/
- http//www.soccerbase.com/
- http//europeancups.altervista.org/
28Thank You
Objectives
Basic Findings
Interesting Findings
Future Work
Conclusion
Process
Introduction
Sources
- Thank You
- Dr. Hsinchun Chen
- Yulei Zhang (Gavin)
- Yan Dang (Mandy)
29Questions
Objectives
Basic Findings
Interesting Findings
Future Work
Conclusion
Process
Introduction
Sources
30Head-to-Head Probability Analysis
Objectives
Basic Findings
Interesting Findings
Future Work
Conclusion
Process
Introduction
Sources
31Head-to-Head Probability Analysis
Objectives
Basic Findings
Interesting Findings
Future Work
Conclusion
Process
Introduction
Sources
FC Barcelona Vs Others
Liverpool Vs Others