Doing Business After a Major Bay Area Earthquake

1
Doing Business After a Major
Bay Area Earthquake

• JEANNE PERKINS
• ABAG Earthquake Program Manager

2
What Are Natural HAZARDS?

3
Earthquake-Related Hazards

• Ground Shaking
• Fault Rupture
• Liquefaction
• Landslides
• Tsunamis

4
Weather-Related Hazards

• Flooding
• Landslides
• Wildfires
• Drought

5
What Are the HAZARDS in MY
Area?

6
(No Transcript)
7
(No Transcript)
8
(No Transcript)
9
(No Transcript)
10
(No Transcript)
11
(No Transcript)
12
(No Transcript)
13
Transportation Impacts
14
2 PAST EARTHQUAKES

• 142 road closures in Loma Prieta
• 140 road closures in Northridge
• 18 FUTURE EARTHQUAKES
• 17 Bigger than these earthquakes
• 0 Bigger than New Orleans

15
What Happens - M 7.9 on San Andreas Fault --

• 1,330 total closures
• Problems along I-280 and Hwy. 101 in San Mateo
  Co.
• San Francisco a mess
• San Mateo and Marin county coasts isolated
• Problems near Bay at OAK, SFO and SJC

16
What Happens - M 6.9 on Entire Hayward Fault
--

• 1,650 total closures
• Most toll bridges not usable
• Some problems in the Hwy. 101 and 37 corridors in
  Marin, SF and San Mateo counties
• Entire East Bay isolated

17
Recovery Timeline

18
What Does This Mean?

• There were only 142 road closures in Loma Prieta.
• There were only 140 road closures in Northridge.
• Our model for predicting the potential impacts of
  these closures should be Kobe, not either of
  these California earthquakes.

19
Utility System Impacts
20
Liquefaction - Results

• Selected Damage
• to Foundations
• Roads Sidewalks
• Sand boils
• Pipeline Breaks

21
(No Transcript)
22
What Happened in the Very High Liquefaction
Areas - Loma Prieta Quake

• Water - 4-5 times more breaks
• Natural Gas - 3 - 11 times more breaks
• Roads - 1.3 times more surface, but 25 times more
  costly

23
Liquefaction Hazard - Loma Prieta Versus Entire
Hayward
24
Airport System Impacts
25
What Happens - M 7.9 on Entire Bay Area San
Andreas Fault

• SFO probably CLOSED
• OAK probably CLOSED
• SJC disruption - should be OK due to
  retrofit completed in 2003.

26
What Happens - M 6.9 on Entire Hayward Fault

• SFO probably disruption
• OAK probably CLOSED
• SJC disruption - should be OK due to
  retrofit completed in 2003.

27

• Housing Impacts

28
2 PAST EARTHQUAKES

• 16,000 Uninhabitable Housing Units Due to the
  Loma Prieta Earthquake
• 48,000 Uninhabitable Housing Units Due to the
  Northridge Earthquake
• 18 FUTURE EARTHQUAKES
• 13 Bigger than Loma Prieta
• 8 Bigger than Northridge
• 0 Bigger than New Orleans

29
What Happens - M 7.9 on Entire Bay Area San
Andreas Fault

• 159,900 uninhabitable housing units
• (300,000 Katrina)
• 359,000 people displaced
• 105,700 peak shelter population

30
What Happens - M 6.9 on Entire Hayward Fault

• 155,700 uninhabitable housing units
• 300,000 - Katrina
• 356,600 people displaced
• 110,300 peak shelter population

31
Single Family Homes

• 9 of the problem in the Hayward Nightmare

32
Mobile Homes

• 7 of the problem in the Hayward Nightmare

33
Multifamily Wood-Frame

• 66 of the problem in the Hayward Nightmare

34
Unreinforced Masonry

• 8 of the problem in the Hayward Nightmare

35
Other Non-Wood Multi-Family

• 10 of the problem in the Hayward Nightmare

36
Multifamily vs. Single-Family

• 84 of the problem in the Hayward Nightmare

37
The Nightmare Goes On and On...
38
The Nightmare Goes On and On...
39
Who Has the Nightmare?
40
What is the role of business
after a disaster?

41
Where is ABAGs Local Hazard Mitigation Plan
information on the internet?

• http//quake.abag.ca.gov
• As well as special info at http//quake.abag.ca.
  gov/business

42
Save the Date Thursday,
April 20 (Day 3 of the Mega-Conference)