Elements of thought

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13
Humans routinely draw conclusions in situations.
Those conclusions are based on assumptions that
usually operate at an unconscious level.
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14
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  (????? ??? ?? ???)
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• - ????? ?????? (??????? ???????)
  
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16
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Fact
Data

• Attitude
• Education
• Culture
• Personality
• Norm of organization
• Ambiguity
• Duration
• Group effect
• Cognitive Biases

17
???? ??????

• ???) ??????? ?????
• ?) ??? ? ?????
• ?) ????? ????????
• ?) ??????? ???????? ????????

18

• illusory correlation
• impact bias
• infrastructure bias
• ingroup bias
• just-world phenomenon
• Kuleshov effect
• Lake Wobegon effect
• logical fallacy
• loss aversion
• media bias
• memory bias
• mere exposure effect
• misinformation effect
• negativity effect
• negative perception of the color black
• notational bias
• outgroup homogeneity bias
• overconfidence effect

• anchoring
• anthropic bias
• attribution, attributional bias
• Barnum effect
• base rate neglect
• behavioral confirmation
• belief perseverance
• bias blind spot
• clustering illusion
• confirmation bias
• conjunction fallacy
• contrast effect
• cultural bias
• dilution effect
• disconfirmation bias
• egocentric bias
• endowment effect
• expectancy effect
• false consensus effect

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• selection bias
• selective perception
• self-deception
• self-serving bias
• spacing effect
• statistical bias
• status quo bias
• sunk cost effects
• tunnel vision
• trait ascription bias
• valence effect
• Von Restorff effect
• wishful thinking
• worse-than-average effect
• Zeigarnik effect

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???????? ???? ?? ????

• Information-processing
• Enquiry
• Reasoning
• Creative thinking
• Evaluation

• ?????? ???????
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• ???????

21
heuristics

• Heuristics are often used to help one generate a
  differential diagnosis and then refine
  probability
• A heuristic is a strategy that risks error to
  gain efficiency

22
three heuristic principles that are commonly
employed to generate probability estimates

• Sampling/Representativeness????????
• The more object X is similar to class Y, the
  more likely we think X belongs to Y
• Saliency/Availability ??????
• The easier it is to consider instances of class
  Y, the more frequent we think it is
• Anchoring ????
• Initial estimated values affect the final
  estimates, even after considerable adjustments

23

• ????????

24
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• ?????? ??????(?????????)/???? ??????????
• ?????? ??? ???????/??????
• ???? ????????
• ???? ??????
• ???? ????-?????

25
Example

• X is very shy and withdrawn, invariably helpful,
  but with little interest in people, or in the
  world of reality. A meek and tidy soul, he has a
  need for order and structure, and a passion for
  detail.
• Is X a Librarian, a Teacher, or a Lawyer?

26
?? ??? ????????? ?? ?? ???? ????? ??? ??????
?????? ?? ?????? ??? ????? ????? ?? ????

• . 1- ?? ?? ?? ?????? ?? ????? ???? ?? ???????
  ????? ?? ??? ?? ?? ?? ??????? ??? ???
• 2- ?? ?? ?????? ????? ????? ????? ?????? ???????
  ??? ?? ?? ?? ????? ???? ??? (??????? ?????? ????
  ).

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Representativeness

• Individuals assess the likelihood of
• an occurrence by the similarity of that
  occurrence to the stereotype of a set
• of occurrences.
• Judgments based on similarity
• Like goes with like

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Representative Bias (1)??? ?????? ?? ?????? ????

• ??? ?? ?????? ?? ???? ?? ??? ????? ?? ?????? ??
  ??? ??????? ??????????? ??????? ???? ??? ??? ??
  ?????? ???? ???? ?? ??? ??? ???? .
• ???? ???? ?? ???? ?? ????? ?? ?????? ?? ????? ??
  ????? ?? ??????? ????? ???? . ????? ?? ?????
  ??????? ?????? ??? ?????? ??????? ???? ???? ??
  ?????? ?? ????? .

The nature of reasoning, Sternberg, R, 2004
29
Example 2

• I have a friend who is a professor. He likes to
  write poetry, is rather shy, and is small in
  stature. Which of the following is his field?
• a) Chinese studies.
• b) psychology.

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Example 2

• Suppose 90 of Chinese scholars fit the
  stereotype
• And that only 5 of psychologists fit the
  stereotype
• Suppose there are
• 10,000 Chinese scholars
• 200,000 psychologists
• Then we get
• 90 of 10,000 gt 9,000
• 5 of 200,000 gt 10,000
• So there are actually more psychologists that fit
  the stereotype than Chinese scholars

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???? ??????

• ?? ?? ????? 100 ?????70 ????? ? 30 ???? ?????.
• ???) ??? ???? 30 ???? ???. ?? ????? ??? ? ??????
  ?????. ???????? ???? ? ?????? ??? ????? ????. ??
  ????? ??? ?? ???? ????? ??? ????? ???? ????.
  ???????? ?? ?? ???? ?????.
• ?????? ????? ?? ??? ??? ?? 70 ????? ????? ????
  ???? ??? ???? ???.... ????
• ???? ?? ?? ????50!!

32
Representative Bias (2)??? ?????? ?? ??? ?????

• The size of a sample withdrawn from a population
  should greatly affect the likelihood of obtaining
  certain results in it
• People, however, ignore sample size and only use
  the superficial similarity measures
• For example, people ignore the fact that larger
  samples are less likely to deviate from the mean
  than smaller samples

33
???? ??????

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  ?????? ?????? ???? 45 ????? ? ?? ?????????
  ?????? ???? 15 ????? ?? ??? ????? ?? ????.???????
  ?? ?? ????? 50 ???? ?? ??????? ????? ??? ???
  ?????. ????? ?? ???? ???? ??????? ????? ??? ?? ??
  ??? ?????? ?? ??? ???? ???. ???? ????? ??? ????
  ??? ??50 ???? ? ???? ???? ?? 50 ???? ???.
• ?? ??? ?? ??? ?? ???????????????? ?? ?? ??? ?? 60
  ???? ??????? ????? ???? ??? ????? ?? ??? ?????.
  ??? ?? ???? ???? ????????? ?????? ?????? ?? ???
  ????
• ???) ????????? ??????
• ?) ????????? ??????
• ?) ?? ?? ????????? ????? ?? (?? ?? 50 ????)

34
Representative Bias (3)?????? ??? ?? ????

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  ??????? ?? ???? . ?? ???? ??? ?? ??????? ?? ?????
  3 ??????? ??? ?? ?? ???? ???
• ????) ?????? ?? ??? ????? 3 ??????? ????? ??
  ????? ??? ?? ???? ???????? ??? ?? ????? ????.
• ? ) ?????? ?? ??? ????? 3 ??????? ?? ?? ?? ?????
  ??? ?? ???? ???????? ??? ?? ????? ????.
• ?) ?????? ?? ??? ????? 3 ??????? ???? ??? ??????
  ?? ???? ???????? ???? ?????.

35
Hot hand

• ????? ??? ?????
• ?????? ?????? ?? ?????? ?? ????? ????
• ?????? ????? ?????.

36
Representative Bias (3)?????? ??? ?? ????

• People expect random sequences to be
  representatively random even locally
• E.g., they consider a coin-toss run of HTHTTH to
  be more likely than HHHTTT or HHHHTH
• The Gamblers Fallacy
• After a run of reds in a roulette, black will
  make the overall run more representative (chance
  as a self-correcting process??)

37
Representative Bias (4)???? ?? ???????

• People tend to ignore the phenomenon
  of regression towards the mean.
• punishments /reward
• Correlation between parents and childrens
  heights or IQ

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Example

• A group of children took two tests. If I
  select 10 of the top 20 performers on test A,
  will their performance on test B most likely be
• A Better
• B Worse
• C The same

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Representative Bias (6)???? ?? ???????

• ???? ????? ??????? ?? ?? ?? ????? ?????? ?? ?????
  ?? ???? ??? ????? ?? ???? ??? ??????? ?? ????
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  ???? ?? ???. ?? ??? ???? ?? ????? ???? ??? ??
  ????? ??? ?????? ???? ????? ??????? ?? ????. ???
  ???? ??? ?? ???? ???? ?????? ??? ????? ?? ????
  ???? ???? ????? ???? ?????? ?? ???? ????

40
????????

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  ???? ? ?????? ???? ??? .
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  ?? ???? ?? ????? ????? ????? .
• ????? ????? ?? ??? ??? ?? ???? ??????? ?????
  (?????? ??? ???? ??? ? ???? ?? ??? ???? ??? ??
  ????? ) ??????? ??????? ?????? ?????? ???

41
Representative/ summary

• Used to judge membership in a class, Judge
  similarity to stereotypes
• People are insensitive to prior probability of
  outcomes
• They ignore preexisting distribution of
  categories or base rate frequencies
• People are insensitive to sample size
• They draw strong inferences from small number
  of cases
• People have a misconception of Chance Gamblers
  Fallacy,
• They see a normal event and think it
  rare
• they think chance will correct a series of
  rare events
• People have a misconception of Regression
• They see a rare event and think it
  normal
• they deny chance as a factor causing extreme
  outcomes

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• ???? ???? ????????

43
How to AVOID representative bias?

• Dont be misled by detailed scenarios
• Pay attention to base rates
• Remember, chance is NOT self-correcting!
• Dont misinterpret regression towards mean

44

• ???? ??????

45
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• ?????? ??????(?????????)/???? ??????????
• ?????? ??? ???????/??????
• ???? ????????
• ???? ??????
• ???? ????-?????

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Example

• Consider these pairs of causes of death
• Lung Cancer vs Motor Vehicle Accidents
• Emphysema vs Homicide
• Tuberculosis vs Fire and Flames
• From each pair, choose the one you think
  causes more deaths each year.

47
Newspaper Reports/Year Annual US Totals Peoples Choice ??? ???
3 140,000 43 ????? ???
127 46,000 57 ???????
1 22,000 45 ??????? ????
264 19,000 55 ???
0 4,000 27 ??
24 7,000 73 ??? ????
48
Newspaper Reports/Year Annual US Totals Peoples Choice ??? ???
3 140,000 43 ????? ???
127 46,000 57 ???????
1 22,000 45 ??????? ???
264 19,000 55 ???
0 4,000 27 ??
24 7,000 73 ??? ????
49
Newspaper Reports/Year Annual US Totals Peoples Choice Causes of Death
3 140,000 43 ????? ???
127 46,000 57 ???????
1 22,000 45 ??????? ???
264 19,000 55 ???
0 4,000 27 ??
24 7,000 73 ??? ????
50
Newspaper Reports/Year Annual US Totals Peoples Choice Causes of Death
3 140,000 43 ????? ???
127 46,000 57 ???????
1 22,000 45 ??????? ???
264 19,000 55 ???
0 4,000 27 ??
24 7,000 73 ??? ????
51
???? ???? ??????

• ???? ???? ??? R ?? ?? ??? ?????? . ??? ?? ???????
  ?????? ?? ?? ??? R ???? ?? ???? ????? ??? ??
  ?????? ??R ??? ??? ??????? ????? ???? ???????
  ???? ?? ???? ?????? ?? ?? ??? R ???? ?? ????
  ????? ???.
• ??? ? ???? ????? ?????? ?? ?? ??? R ???? ?? ????
  ???? ?? ?? ????? ?????? ??? ?? R ????? ??? ??????
  . ?? ???? ?? ?? ???? ??????? ???? ?????? ?? R ???
  ??? ?????? ????? ??? . ??? ????? ?? ???? ??? ???
  ???? ??? V,N,L,K ??? ???? ??? .

52
???? ???? ??????

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  ????? ?????? ?? ?? ???? ??? ????? ?????? ?????
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  ????.
• ?? ?? ?? ????? ????? ?????? ?? ???? ????? ????
  ?????? ????? ?? ???? ????? ????? ?? ????? ??
  ????!!
• ????? ?????? ?? ???? ?? ????? ??? ??????? ???????
  ? ???? ??????? ?? ?? ????? ????? ?????????? ???
  ?? ??? ??? .

53
Availability Biases (1) ????? ???????

• Classes whose instances are more easily
  retrievable will seem larger
• For example, judging if a list of names had more
  men or women depends on the relative frequency of
  famous names
• Salience affects retrievability
• E.g., watching a car accident increases
  subjective assessment of traffic accidents

54
Availability Biases (2) Effectiveness of a
Search Set

• We often form mental search sets to estimate
  how frequent are members of some class the
  effectiveness of the search might not relate
  directly to the class frequency
• Who is more prevalent Words that start with r or
  words where r is the 3rd letter?
• Are abstract words such as love more frequent
  than concrete words such as door?

55
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  ???? ??????? ????????????? ???? ??????????? ????
  ?????
• ?? ?? ?????? ????? ???????

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Example

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Availability Biases (2) Effectiveness of a
Search Set

• Individuals are biased in their assessments of
  the frequency of events based on how the
  structure of memory affects the search

58

• ????? ??????

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Forming Impressions of Others

• A Classroom Demonstration

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Example

• College-drop outs may easily be assumed to
  correlate with a pattern of failure.
• But Bill Gates and Michael Dell and many other
  successful business people are actually college
  drop-outs.    

61
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  ???? ?? ???.
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  ???.

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100

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101
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102
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???? B ???? A ????
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103
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• ??????? ?????? ?????? ?? ???? ?????? ??? ???? ???
  ???? ????? ????

104
Availability/ summary

• Used to judge likelihood or frequency of
  event, occurrence
• People tend to be biased by information that is
  easier to recall
• they are swayed by information that is vivid,
  well-publicized, or recent
• People tend to be biased by examples that they
  can easily retrieve
• People tend to correlate events that occur close
  together

105
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• ???? ???? ??????

106
Saliency /Availability

• Avoiding strategy
• Dividing the number of observed cases by the
  total number of patients one has seen, making
  reference to the relative frequency of the
  observed event

107

• ??? ??????? ???? ?????

108
???? ?????

• ?????? ???? ? ?????
• ?????? ??????(?????????)/???? ??????????
• ?????? ??? ???????/??????
• ???? ????????
• ???? ??????
• ???? ????-?????

109
??? ??????? ???? ?????

• Individuals make assessments by starting from an
  initial value and adjusting this initial value to
  yield a final decision.

110
??? ??????? ???? ?????

• Consequences
• Adjustments are typically insufficient and are
  biased towards initial values, the anchor
• Lead to premature closure of thinking. Diagnosis
  , once attached is difficult to remove and may
  seal the patients fate.

111
??? ??????? ???? ?????

• Anchoring may occur due to incomplete
  calculation, such as estimating by two
  high-school student groups
• the expression 8x7x6x5x4x3x2x1 (median answer
  512)
• with the expression 1x2x3x4x5x6x7x8 (median
  answer 2250)
• Anchoring occurs even when experts (real-estate
  agents) estimate real-estate prices (Northcraft
  and Neale, 1987)

112
??? ??????? ???? ?????

• The halo effect occurs when a person's positive
  or negative traits seem to "spill over" from one
  area of their personality to another in others'
  perceptions of them.

113
??? ??????? ???? ?????

• What percentage of African nations are in the UN?
• A large wheel was spun which showed subjects
  either 10 or 65.
• Subjects asked to determine if number was smaller
  or larger than wheel and then asked for estimate.
• Median estimates 25 (for 10) and 45 (for 65)

114
??????? ??? ??????? ???? ?????

• Anchoring effect involves 2 steps
• 1.Comparative (i.e., larger or smaller than
  X?)
• 2.Absolute (i.e., whats your best guess?)
• The effect of each step
• 1.Comparative Recruit evidence that is
  consistent with anchor
• 2.Absolute Judgment biased by accessible
  information

115
Anchoring and Adjustment/summary

• Used to estimate value or size of quantity
• Start from initial value and adjust to final
  estimate
• People are influenced by an initial anchor value
• anchor may be unreliable, irrelevant
• adjustment is often insufficient
• People overestimate probability of conjunctive
  events
• People underestimate probability of
  disjunctive events
• Anchors may be qualitative
• people form initial impressions that persist
  and are hard to change

116
???? ????

• ???? ???? ????

117
Anchoring and adjustment

• Avoiding strategy
• Awareness of the anchoring tendency
• Avoid early guesses and delay forming an
  impression until more complete information

118
Ignoring Statistical Rules (cont).?????

• Regression to the Mean
• Score on an IQ test
• Pilots and Feedback
• Ignoring Sample Size
• Hospital Problem
• Interviews
• Misconceptions of Chance
• Interpretations of random events (go with red or
  black?)
• Belief in the hot hand

119
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• ????? 1
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120

• ???? ??????? ??? ??????? ??? ?????? ??? ????
  ???? ????!

121
????? ????? ????? ????? ????!

• 1-?? ???? ???? ????/???? ??????? ?? ??????
  ??????(???? ??????? ???? ? ??????? ??? ??????)
  ???? ????? ??????? ???
• ?????? ????????? ?????? ?????!

122
????? ????? ????? ????? ????!

• 2-?? ???? ??? ??????? ????? ?? ??????
  ???????/?????? ?? ???? ???? ?????? ??????
• ????? ???? ?????? ?? ??? ???? ??? ???? ????
  ?????? ?? ?? ???????

123
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