Improving the policy process

1
Improving the policy process
PAHO Leaders 2006 Disaster risk reduction,
mitigation, preparedness and response

• Pan American Health Organization
• Regional Center for Disaster Risk Reduction, UWI
• CDERA
• Thursday 23rd November 2006
• Sunset Jamaica Grande Resort, Ocho Rios

Professor Anthony Clayton University of the West
Indies
15/05/2020
2
Problems, problems

• Problem why do so many government policies fail?
• Common reasons failure to understand the task,
  unhelpful misperceptions, assumptions and
  politics, policy conflicts, resulting in
  incoherent priorities unachievable missions.
• Examples
• Why do countries get poorer when aid flows
  increase?
• Why do we negotiate for aid programs that damage
  our economy?
• Why do measures to protect jobs increase
  unemployment?
• Why do government agencies undermine each other?
• Why cant we solve the drug problem?

3
Example War

• The nature of war has changed
• Wars were formerly between nations the majority
  of conflicts today involve civil
  wars/insurgencies. War today is more likely to
  involve infiltration rather than invasion.
• Wars are increasingly asymmetrical, between
  security forces and unconventional irregular
  forces.
• In traditional warfare, most of the fatalities
  were soldiers. Today, most of the casualties are
  civilians.
• The nature of war has changed fundamentally more
  significant changes are expected over the next
  10-20 years.
• The way in which the issues are perceived by the
  general public (taxpayers, voters, recruits) has
  not kept pace. So there is an increasing
  disconnect.
• Even more important, the way in which the issues
  are perceived by the professionals has not kept
  pace

4
Wargame exposed gaping hole in Pentagon strategy
Julian Borger, The Guardian Tuesday September 25,
2001

• When terror came out of a clear blue sky on
  September 11, some of the Pentagon's top brass
  were given a jolting reminder of a wargame they
  played in 1997. In the game, the US was pitted
  against a zealous, decentralised terror
  organisation very like al-Qaida, and the US lost.
  Each time the US forces thought they had scored a
  blow against the terror organisation, it would
  regenerate itself to strike on another front. It
  emerged from the campaign more or less unscathed.
  
• That was four years ago, but some of the military
  strategists who organized the game believe the
  Pentagon failed to learn the lessons from the
  wargame, and said yesterday that the US military
  was still a long way from readiness to fight the
  adversary it now faced.

5
The Pentagon still fighting the wrong war

• According to Doug Johnson, a strategic studies
  professor involved in the 1997 exercise, the army
  lost because it didn't want to play that game.
  The army brass, Dr Johnson said, were intent on
  fighting a variation of a war against large tank
  armies on the central plains of somewhere. At
  one point, the Pentagon officers involved became
  so frustrated with their elusive opponents that
  they asked for the game organizers to have a
  friendly government's armoured battalion defect
  to the other side. They did it to give someone
  to blast, Dr Johnson said. Everyone went away
  feeling viscerally satisfied.
• As a result, they missed the point. The terror
  organisation still had most of its cells in
  place, and a functioning financial network.
• Within the contours of that particular game, the
  American forces and their allies simply weren't
  configured to deal with an enemy like the one we
  created, said Steven Metz, head of the Army War
  College's regional strategy and planning
  department.

6
Lessons?

• This illustrates three points in policy analysis
• Distinguish between perception and reality.
• Be wary of the Conventional Wisdom of the
  Dominant Group (COWDUNG), as a failure on a core
  assumption is likely to be fatal.
• The importance of seeing both the current
  position and the underlying context or trend.

7
Making better policy

• Question how can we increase the chances of
  success?
• Answer a more systematic approach, to help us
• Control for preconceived ideas and assumptions
• Check the facts, get the problem into focus
• Identify our options
• For each option, identify costs and trade-offs
• Agree our priorities
• Build the necessary consensus about the way
  forward
• Implement!
• Monitor, change tactics if required, stay focused
  on the goal

8
Bardachs Eightfold Path lists the main steps

1. Define the problem. What are we trying to
   achieve?
2. Assemble the evidence. What are the facts?
3. Construct policy alternatives. What can we do?
4. Select the criteria. How are we going to decide
   which is the best policy?
5. Project the outcomes of each policy option. What
   would happen if we tried this?
6. Assess the trade-offs. How much will this cost?
   What are the chances of success? Could this
   tactic create some other problem?
7. Decide. What are you going to recommend to the
   Minister?
8. Present. Set out the problem, your analysis and
   your recommendation.

9
3) Constructing policy alternatives

• Must be evidence-based (from stage 2).
• Take into account a range of expert advice and
  stakeholder views.
• Represent the main bodies of opinion.
• Help to bring issues into focus (usually achieved
  by making sure that alternatives are sufficiently
  diverse).
• Example 1 Swedish defence policy
• Example 2 Go Big, Go Long, Go Home.

10
4) Select the criteria

• What is important? Is it
• Results at any cost
• Results, provided that the process is not too
  expensive
• Results, provided that they can be achieved
  without upsetting anyone with a lot of political
  influence
• Not to change anything, but to make it look as
  though we are taking the problem seriously
• So does the proposed solution have to be
• The solution that we think has the best chance of
  success?
• The cheapest/quickest/most legal solution
  available?
• The most politically-acceptable way forward?
• The one that will make us look good?

11
5) Project outcomes for each option

• This is most technically difficult step, because
• We have to be realistic, rather than optimistic
  or pessimistic
• We have to resolve very significant uncertainty
  into a clear decision, on which much will depend.
• It is about the future, NOT the present
• Key questions what would happen if we did this?
• Have we tried anything like this before? What
  happened that time? Why?
• Has anyone else tried anything like this? What
  happened to them? Were the conditions similar?
• How will people react if we do this? How will the
  community respond? Will there be political
  problems? How will the different interest groups
  react? Could there be legal challenges?

12
Estimating impacts and costs

• Example the cost of crime control in Jamaica
• For J180m we can reduce homicides by 5.
• If 5 80 homicides, cost of reduction
  2.25m/homicide.
• What are the chances of success? 90? 50? 10?
  1?
• What are the risks of unwanted side effects?
• How does this compare against e.g. investment in
  schools?
• Bearing in mind that
• Job security increases unemployment
• Safer drivers take more risks
• Free zones encourage relocation, not job-creation

13
6) Dealing with trade-offs

• One option is clearly the best (rare)
• Each option has a different combination of costs
  and benefits (the usual situation)

Option Cost Chance of success Risks
A Medium High High
B Low Low Medium
C High Medium Low
14
Aggregated vs disaggregated decision-making

• Aggregated resolve everything into a single
  numeraire (usually cash).
• Disaggregated use matrices, maps and diagrams to
  keep more dimensions in view.
• There are pros and cons for each approach.

15
Aggregated
Low 0-3 Option make negative Medium
4-6 factors (e.g. cost, risk) High 7-10 negative
numbers.
Option Factor A - cost Factor B prospects Weighting 2 Factor C - risks Total
Plan A (Medium) -5 (High) 8 16 (High) -8 3
Plan B (Low) -2 (Low) 3 6 (Medium) -4 0
Plan C (High) -7 (Medium) 6 12 (Low) -3 2
This one!
16
Probability/impact matrix

• The conclusions from a policy exercise usually
  have to be absorbed into a government (or
  business) agenda that is already crowded. It is
  important to have greater clarity about future
  problems and potential solutions, but that does
  not remove the need to make the large number of
  day-to-day decisions involved in managing a
  Ministry or government agency.
• So it is important to have priorities for action.
• A probability impact matrix is a way of
  organizing these priorities. It is similar to the
  triage used by military doctors when dealing with
  incoming casualties.

17
Probability/impact matrix
Low impact High impact
Low probability
High probability
Ignore
Monitor carefully
Risk of critical failure!
Low priority
Top priority
18
High impact, low probability (we thought)

• It is sensible to allocate most time and
  resources to high impact, high probability
  events, but it is also important to monitor high
  impact, low probability events
• The US Federal Emergency Management Agency knew
  that New Orleans was potentially vulnerable to a
  hurricane, and had identified this as one of the
  three worst disasters that could befall the
  United States. This was, however, seen by the
  administration as a low probability event.
• On the 28th29th August 2005, Hurricane Katrina
  resulted in a 28-foot storm surge as well as
  torrential rain, the latter raised the height of
  Lake Pontchartrain by 7.6 feet, and the
  combination overwhelmed the levees that protected
  the city of New Orleans. About 80 of the city,
  which is on average about 6 feet below sea level,
  was then flooded.

• Unprepared. The Washington Post. Monday,
  September 5th, 2005

19
7) Decide

• Are you convinced?
• Are your colleagues convinced?
• Are the external experts, independent advisors,
  stakeholders convinced?

20
8) Final presentation

• State the following
• The problem
• The analysis of trends, causes
• Options, intervention points
• Benefits, costs, trade-offs and risks
• Recommendation

21
Project management tools

• There are a range of useful tools, including
• Project cycle management
• LogFrame planning
• Critical Path Analysis
• PERT analysis
• Gantt charts
• These can help to
• Identify the important sub-tasks.
• Identify the dependencies between sub-tasks.
• Organize the dependent sub-tasks into the
  appropriate sequence.
• Identify potential vulnerabilities.
• Identify the minimum time required to complete a
  project.
• Identify where resources can be optimally
  allocated.

22
Project cycle management (1)

• Most projects can be divided into a 6 phase
  project cycle
• Defining the theme. This is the choice of area,
  usually a list of key problems that require a
  policy intervention (typically scoring high on
  risk, public concern, or assessed chances of
  success).
• Project identification. This is the initial
  formulation of ideas for the actual project,
  including objectives, expected results and a list
  of the actions to be taken. The goal at this
  stage is to work out whether it is worth going
  ahead with a feasibility/pilot study. If the
  answer is yes, then the next step is usually to
  draw up the terms of reference and undertake the
  study.
• Formulation. This involves looking at the results
  of the feasibility or pilot study and specifying
  the project itself. Objectives, expected results
  and a list of the actions to be taken must now be
  set down in precise detail. These must then be
  checked back against the theme defined earlier.
  If the project is going to require external
  funding, it is at this stage that you decide
  whether or not to draw up a bid for funds.

23
Project cycle management (2)

• Financing. For those projects that require
  external funding this stage involves drafting
  the funding proposal, bidding for and securing
  funds, negotiating and signing the contracts.
• Implementation. This involves executing the
  project, monitoring progress and achieving the
  results.
• Evaluation. This stage involves analyzing the
  results and assessing the impact of the project
  both during and after its implementation. The
  goal is to identify any lessons to be learnt that
  could help with other projects, both now and in
  the future. Projects that require external
  funding are often phased, with the release of
  funding for each stage conditional on the
  completion of a full evaluation of the previous
  stage.

24
LogFrame risk reduction

• What is LogFrame?
• Logical Framework (LogFrame) planning involves
  analyzing and setting out, in a systematic and
  logical way, the objectives of a project and any
  causal relationships between the objectives of a
  project.
• It involves working towards these objectives,
  monitoring progress and checking that the
  objectives have been achieved. It also involves
  establishing the extent to which the success of
  the project depends on factors that cannot be
  controlled, and the extent to which the project
  is therefore exposed to risk.
• How LogFrame help?
• By helping us to think methodically and identify
  all the factors essential to the success of the
  project.
• By encouraging us to check and test our ideas,
  monitor progress, identify problems and take
  remedial action while there is still time to save
  the project.

25
LogFrame matrix
The activities can start if the preconditions are
met the activities will lead to results if the
assumptions are met the results will accomplish
the project purpose if the assumptions are met
achieving the projects purpose will help to
achieve the overall objectives if the assumptions
are met.
Intervention logic Verifiable indicators Sources of verification Assumptions
Overall objectives (the contribution)
Project purpose (the point)
Results (the achievement)
Activities (the actions) Means Costs
Preconditions Start
26
Critical Path Analysis (1)

• Critical Path Analysis and the related PERT model
  were developed in the 1950s to manage military
  projects, but are now more generally used to
  manage any particularly large, complex project.
  Another related tool, the Gantt chart, was
  developed three decades earlier. These tools
  involve listing all the sub-tasks in a project,
  then organizing them into two groups
• Sequential the first group consists of those
  tasks that have to be completed in sequence,
  because each stage depends on the one before.
  When building a factory, for example, the
  foundation must be finished before the
  load-bearing walls go up, and the walls must be
  ready before the roof can be fitted.
• Parallel the second group consists of those
  tasks that do not depend on the completion of
  other tasks. These can therefore be completed in
  parallel, i.e. at the same time as other tasks.
  In the same factory building project, for
  example, the contractor might decide that the
  tarmac for the car park can be laid at any time
  this does not depend on progress with the
  foundations, walls or floors of the main building.

27
Critical Path Analysis (2)

• The tasks are then represented in a diagram which
  shows the flow of events. The critical path is
  the line through the series of sequential events.
  This shows the minimum amount of time needed to
  complete the project as a whole. This also shows
  where the project might be vulnerable, because
  any failure on the critical path will always have
  implications for either the timetable (the
  completion will be delayed) or the budget (we
  will have to hire more people to get this phase
  finished on schedule). The key points along the
  critical path usually serve as the decision
  points for the project.
• This process shows where additional resources
  would have the most effect. Additional
  expenditure on a critical path event can shorten
  the amount of time required, and help to get a
  late project back on schedule. Hiring more
  bricklayers, for example, can help to get the
  walls finished earlier, thus making it possible
  to get the roof fitted. Additional expenditure on
  a parallel task, however, such as bringing in
  another roller to level the car park, will not
  help to shorten the timetable. This reveals how
  resources can be reallocated from parallel tasks
  to sequential tasks in order to speed up a
  project. This sort of tactic is sometimes
  referred to as a crash action programme.

28
Program Evaluation Review Technique (PERT)

• PERT is a form of Critical Path Analysis which
  also corrects for the fact that most people
  underestimate how long each task will take, while
  some people will overestimate the time required
  in order to inflate their bonuses. PERT is
  calculated by estimating the shortest possible
  time each task will take, the longest likely time
  each task could take, and the most likely amount
  of time that each task will actually take. In
  effect, PERT uses a band of values, with a top
  and bottom end and a most likely value, as
  opposed to a single value.
• This band is then resolved into a single value,
  usually in the following formula shortest time
  4 the most likely time the longest time/6. So
  if, for example, the shortest time was 2 days,
  the longest time 8 days, and the most likely time
  4 days, that would give 2 (44) 8 26/6
  4.3 days.
• This final value is then used instead of the
  shortest time value of 2 days or the longest
  value of 8 days, thus correcting for
  over-optimism or under-bidding.

29
Visual tools

• Critical path, PERT and Gantt charts (Gantt
  charts were developed by Henry Gantt in 1917) are
  usually shown as horizontal bar charts that show
  the important tasks over time.
• These are useful visual tools for keeping track
  of projects.

30
How to make Critical Path, PERT or Gantt charts

1. Make a list of all tasks/activities involved in
   the project.
2. Put them into sequential order.
3. Estimate the time it will take to complete each
   task and put the time next to that task on the
   list.
4. Readjust the sequence of tasks as necessary.
5. Determine who is responsible for each task on the
   list and put their name next to that task.
6. Label the chart across the top by day/week/month.
7. Label the chart along the left side with all the
   tasks.
8. Draw horizontal bars for each task beginning at
   the start date for that task and ending with the
   completion date for that task.

31
Example
Critical path (sequential) Non-Critical
(non-sequential)
Activity i/c Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
Prepare proposal Fred
Secure budget John
Recruit new staff Mary
Train new staff Joan
Assess existing staff Dave
Maintain equipment Fred
Maintain premises Bill
32
5) Project outcomes for each option

• This is most technically difficult step, because
• We have to be realistic, rather than optimistic
  or pessimistic
• We have to resolve very significant uncertainty
  into a clear decision, on which much will depend.
• It is about the future, NOT the present

So how do we plan for the future?
33
The problem with forecasts

• Sophisticated, highly-paid economists have
  successfully predicted seven of the last three
  global recessions (various sources).
• Never make forecasts especially about the
  future
• - Sam Goldwyn

34
Why do forecasts fail?

• 1) Trends change. We start from the current
  position, identify and extrapolate trends. We
  tend to assume that these will continue but
  eventually they dont. Competition intensifies,
  markets saturate and preferences change.
• 2) Parameters change. Market trends are shaped by
  underlying social and economic factors e.g.
  demographics, productivity growth and
  technological development. These structural
  factors usually change slowly but external
  shocks or new disruptive technologies can
  represent discontinuities (or tipping points)
  that precipitate more rapid change and
  restructure markets.

• Trend change is (in principle) predictable.but
  it is difficult to anticipate discontinuities.

35
Can we do better?

• Conventional forecasting results become less
  reliable at times of significant, rapid and
  pervasive change
• We are living in an unprecedented era of
  accelerating technological, economic and social
  change, driven by
• New technologies, such as informatics,
  biotechnology, and nanotechnology
• Global trade liberalisation, which could increase
  contestable world output from 20 of the total to
  80 of the total by 2030
• The re-drawing of world geopolitical parameters
• Changing pattern of resource demand,
  environmental impacts
• Are there more reliable decision/planning tools
  for times of change?

36
What is foresighting?

• Foresighting is a tool used
• to inform decision-making
• to help people anticipate future opportunities
  and avoid problems
• Foresighting involves
• envisioning a range of possible future scenarios,
  
• testing these rigorously, then -
• back-casting to present day, and mapping out the
  steps needed to achieve the preferred
  scenario/avoid the worst-case scenario.
• The foresight process itself is important,
  because
• it clarifies and challenges assumptions
• it encourages shared visions and flexible
  thinking
• it creates new knowledge networks

37
Changing parameters climate change
38
Earth's temperature is dangerously high - NASA

• Researchers at Nasa's Goddard Institute for
  Space Studies said that Earth's temperature was
  now reaching its highest level in a million
  years. Dr James Hansen, who led the study, said
  further global warming of just 1C could lead to
  big changes to the planet. If warming is kept
  less than that, effects of global warming may be
  relatively manageable, he said. But if further
  global warming reaches 2 or 3C, the Earth may
  become a different planet to the one we know
  now. The last time it was that warm was in the
  middle Pliocene, about 3m years ago, when sea
  level was about 25 meters (80 feet) higher than
  today.
• The study showed that there was already a threat
  of more extreme weather like the strong El Niños
  in 1983 and 1998, when many countries around the
  world had devastating floods and tornadoes.

Adapted from Hilary Osborne Tuesday September 26
2006 The Guardian
39
Hurricane Katrina, 2005, S E of New Orleans
40
The dispossessed.
Flooding in Bangladesh
41
(No Transcript)
42
Is this a solvable problem?
Previous environmental treaties have had partial
success The Montreal Protocol, which limits CFC
emissions. The Basle Convention, which controls
trans-boundary shipments of hazardous waste. But
these are relatively solvable problems compared
to energy use carbon emissions derive from the
use of our primary energy sources.
43
Kyoto redundant before ratified

• The US, the largest source of carbon emissions,
  has not ratified the protocol, partly because it
  imposes no limits on the gases produced by
  developing countries.
• China, which is now the worlds biggest consumer
  of coal and second biggest consumer of oil, emits
  almost as much carbon as the 25 members of the EU
  combined, and will shortly overtake them to
  become the worlds second largest source of
  carbon emissions, is exempt.
• As a result of these non-ratifications and
  exemptions, UN projections indicate that the
  treaty will reduce the currently projected rise
  in average surface temperature of 1.4 to 5.8C by
  2100 by just 0.1.

44
Methane release
- potential disaster?

• There are naturally-occurring greenhouse gases,
  mostly methane, trapped in ice-like structures
  called clathrates. Most of these are trapped in
  cold sediments and Arctic tundra.
• There is 400 gigatons of methane currently
  trapped in frozen arctic tundra. If the
  temperature gets too high, and the tundra
  defrosts, this methane will be released. Methane
  is gt20 times more efficient than CO² as a
  greenhouse gas, so this could cause runaway
  climate change.
• Similar events have happened before. The largest
  previous release of methane happened at the
  Permian-Triassic boundary event, about 250
  million years ago, when 95 of extant species
  were destroyed. It took 20 - 30 million years for
  rudimentary coral reefs to re-establish and
  forests to re-grow in some areas it took gt100
  million years for ecosystems to reach similar
  levels of diversity.

45
Western Siberia in 2005...thawed for the first
time in 11,000 years
46
A Stern warning (part 1)

• Key points in the report written by Sir Nicholas
  Stern for the UK government, published on Monday
  30th October
• CO² and temperature rise
• Carbon emissions have raised global temperatures
  by 0.5C.
• With BAU, there is gt75 chance that global
  temperatures will rise by 2-3C over the next 50
  years. There is a 50 chance that global
  temperatures could rise by 5C.
• Environmental impact
• Melting glaciers will increase flood risk, then
  drought.
• Crop yields will decline, particularly in Africa.
• Rising sea levels could displace 200 million
  people.
• Up to 40 of species could become extinct.
• There will be more frequent extreme weather
  patterns.

47
A Stern warning (part 2)

• Economic impact
• A rise of 2-3C could reduce global GDP by 3.
• A rise of 5C could cost up to 10 of global GDP.
  The poorest countries would lose
  disproportionately more.
• Worst case scenario the global economy could
  shrink by 20 - permanently.
• Cost of remedial action
• Controlling this risk would require stabilizing
  emissions within the next 20 years then reducing
  by 1-3 pa. The transition to a low-carbon
  economy would cost 1 of GDP, mostly one-off
  expenditure (e.g. investment in low-carbon
  technologies).
• Conclusion
• A one-off investment of 1 could avert a
  permanent reduction in annual income of 5-20.

48
(No Transcript)
49
The real problemas always
is people
50
Surging demand

• Transport still only accounts for 14 global
  emissions, less than power generation and
  land-use.
• However, air travel is the most rapidly-growing
  source of carbon emissions.
• This growth in the demand for global transport
  (driven by falling prices and increasing demand)
  is now seen as one of the most intractable
  problems in slowing the rate of climate change.

51
Growth in air travel

• Air traffic has been expanding at nearly 250 of
  average economic growth rates since 1959.
• The current UK Government's Aviation White Paper
  notes that aviation has increased fivefold over
  the last 30 years, and predicts that UK passenger
  numbers will more than double from 180 million to
  475 million over the next 25 years.

52
Carbon-intensive activity

• Air travel is not only the most rapidly-growing
  source of carbon emissions, it is also very
  energy-intensive. For example, a Boeing 747 burns
  about 5 gallons per mile, so a London to New York
  flight (3,471 miles) requires some 17,355
  gallons.
• Air travel relies on carbon-based fuel, so it is
  a carbon-intensive activity more so than other
  forms of transport. For example, a short flight
  (under 500km, e.g. London to Amsterdam) generates
  0.17kg of carbon/passenger/kilometre, compared
  with 0.14 kg/km by car, 0.052 kg/km for rail and
  0.047 kg/km by ship. So flying produces over
  three times more carbon/kilometre than rail, and
  over three-and-a-half times more than travelling
  by ship.
• As a result, a return flight between the UK and
  Australia produces about 3 tonnes of carbon per
  person (for comparison, an average car emits
  about 6 tonnes of carbon per annum).

53
Aggregate carbon emissions

• The world fleet now consists of about 16,000
  commercial jet aircraft. These generate over 600m
  tonnes of CO² per year.
• This means that aviation generates now nearly as
  much CO² as all human activities in Africa.

54
Consuming the carbon allowance

• In September 2005 the UK's Tyndall Centre for
  Climate Change calculated that all householders,
  motorists and businesses in the UK would have to
  reduce their CO² emissions to zero if the
  aviation industry was to be incorporated into the
  UK Government climate change targets for 2050.
• In other words, the entire UK economy would have
  to emit no carbon at all, because the airline
  industry would be emitting so much that it would
  consume the UKs entire carbon allowance. The
  same equation is true of most other EU member
  states. This is clearly impossible.

55
Technological options?

• There have been significant improvements in
  aircraft and engine technology. The new
  generation of planes (like the Airbus A380 and
  the Boeing 7E7) are partly made of carbon
  composites, rather than metal, therefore offer
  significantly better fuel efficiency and reduced
  emissions per passenger.
• But the IPCC point out that these gains will be
  erased by the projected growth in demand, which
  means that total fuel consumption and emissions
  of e.g. carbon dioxide, water vapour, nitric
  oxide, nitrogen dioxide and sulphur dioxide will
  continue to rise.
• It is not (yet) possible to operate aircraft on
  biofuels (but do we have enough land anyway?)

56
Scarcity is dynamic

• Scarcity reflects four main factors
• Total physical quantity in available
  form/location.
• Technology required to find, extract, process and
  transport the resource.
• Pattern of demand/use (also partly determined by
  available technology).
• Economics (anticipated) demand, supply,
  competition, alternatives substitutes.
• These four factors determine energy
  resource-use efficiency.
• So calculations of sustainability must take into
  account a number of factors, including (a) total
  stock, location and accessibility (b) available
  technology, (c) economics (d) market and
  technological trends, (e) development trends (f)
  demand growth and so on.

57
Solutions

1. Faster technological advance, including both
   incremental gains and more radical substitutions.
2. Faster progress in offset (flanking)
   technologies.
3. Demand-rationing, via price.
4. Command-and-control, via regulation.
5. Disaster preparedness, zoning, planning,
   exercises and mitigation.

58
Conclusions

• We need a robust process for making, implementing
  and monitoring policy.
• This has to be based on strategic/scenario
  planning and risk mapping.
• We need to search for the optimal (attainable,
  achievable or affordable) solution this might
  lie in another discipline or jurisdiction.

59
Thank you !