Telecommunication Trend from ancient time to the first half of this century and its impact on Information Society

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Telecommunication Trend from ancient time to the
first half of this century and its impact on
Information Society

• Haybatolah Khakzar
• Stuttgart University, Germany
• haybatolah_at_khakzar.de

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Telecommunication Trend from ancient time to the
first half of this century and its impact on
Information Society Haybatolah KhakzarStuttgart
University, Germanyhaybatolah_at_khakzar.de

• Abstract
• This paper deals with Telecommunication trends
  from ancient time to the next decades. First of
  all, I bring a brief history of beginning of
  telecommunication and than trends in
  microelectronics technology as predicted by SIA
  in their roadmap will be presented. Based on ever
  shrinking geometries of solid state devices and
  ever decreasing size of telecommunication
  equipment, the number of telecommunication
  subscribers will add up in the next few decades,
  until in average every man on earth has a mobile
  phone. The demand for higher bandwidth leads us
  to the use of optical fibres in networks around
  the world. This trend also boosts equipment
  development, as we will see in another part of
  this paper. Coding will be in future very
  important. I close my paper with some poems of
  Ferdowsi, where you see that coding was used 2500
  years ago.
• Keywords
• Roadmap of Microelectronic Technology,
  subscriber, mobile phone, optical fibre,
  satellite
• 1. Introduction
• 50 kilometres away from Shiraz we have persepolis
  the capital of the hochamanid dynasty, the cradle
  of communication. Herodoth describes in his 8th
  book part 98 the post system of that time. He
  writes that the Iranian have very fast horses.
  They are kept in places with the name angereion.
  Hedjazi writes in the magazine no. 4 of Ptt that
  the word post comes from sanscrit and means
  constant. That word has been overtaken in Latein.
  Posta comes from the word positus which means
  something like the place where you can deposit
  things and this word is in greek pistoli. The
  first telegraph was in the year 481 B. C. during
  the time of King Xerxes when Mardunieh
  telegraphed the conquering of Athens. On 24th of
  May 1844 at 8.45 o clock sent morse a telegraph
  from Washington to Baltimore and transmitted a
  sentence from bible what for marvellous creates
  the God. They did not believe

• him and said he is Shalatan. Only 16 years after
  that Siemens made one of the largest
  communications
• networks from England via Kermanshah, Isfahan,
  Shiarz and Bushehr to India.
• 2. Technology Trends of Microelectronics
• The technology of electronics goes to smaller and
  smaller structures in the direction of nano
  electronics. The smaller structures bring new
  effects in the semiconductor technology and also
  new directions. The nano technology goes two
  different ways, the top down and the bottom up.
  In the first case we go to smaller structures by
  physical, chemical and mechanical processes,
  where as in the second case we will have complex
  systems by atomic and molecular structures of the
  components. The research on the carbonnat pipes
  is an important section of research which I can
  not say much about it, because it is not my area
  of activity.
• The Roadmap of Technology Trends in
  Microelectronics, published by the SIA in 2002
  SIA 2002 shows a dramatic increase in DRAM
  storage capacity and on-chip transistor density.
  This fact is due to ever decreasing gate lengths
  in modern MOS processes. The roadmap predicts a
  decrease of the gate length of a MOS transistor
  used in modern microprocessor chips from 53nm in
• 2002 to 28nm in 2006, 18nm in 2010 and 9nm in
  2016. Using these figures, the storage capacity
  on a single chip will change from 512Mbit in 2002
  up to 2Gbit in 2006 to 64Gbit in 2016. According
  to the roadmap, the nominal power supply voltage
  of a logic or microprocessor chip will drop from
  1.1V in 2002 to 0.9V in 2006 down to 0.4V in
  2016. The realisation of threshold voltage of 0,4
  V will be very difficult.

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3.2 Satellite Communication Systems Table 3.2.1
shows satellite networks evolution 3.2.1
satellite networks evolution
Yeargtgtgt 2002 2006 2010 2016
Microprocessor Physical Gate Length (nm) 53 28 18 9
DRAM Density (Gbit/cm2) 0.54 1.85 4.75 28.85
DRAM Cell Size (µm2) 0.106 0.029 0.012 0.002
DRAM Cell, Equiv.. Oxide Thickness (nm) 1.8 0.32 0.064 0.01
DRAM Storage Capacity per Chip 512M 2G 8G 64G
SRAM Trans. Density (Mio. Transistors per cm2) 237 646 1718 7208
Nominal Power Supply Voltage (Logic, Volts) 1.1 0.9 0.6 0.4
NMOS subthreshold leakage current (at 250, µA/µm) 0.02 0.7 3 10
Parasitic Source / Drain resistance Rsd(O-µm) 180 170 110 80
Capacitance ( of ideal gate capacitance) 22 29 31 42
3.3. Optical Communication Systems The optical
Systems are the most important systems for an
efficient core network, because they are the
answer for broader bandwidth in the future. DWDM
and digital cross connects of communication
networks are the answer for the new standards in
new communication. The optical transport
hierarchies are as follows
3. Microwave-, Satellite-, Optical-, Internet-,
Mobile- and High definition TV-Communication-Syste
ms 3.1 Microwave communication Systems Microwave
communication is an interesting alternative to
the optical cables. The microwave is outside of
dense areas the only alternative. Their repeater
spacing is ca. 80 kilometres. In most of the time
the microwave is cheaper than the cable system.
Therefore the countries of the third world mostly
begin with microwaves systems, when they build
the infrastructure of their communication system.
Unfortunately offers microwave technology not
enough bandwidth. Therefore microwave systems
have to use PSK modulation. Just now labs develop
256 PSK-Systems which is very critical to noise
and can not survive without coding.
Networksystem nominal Daterate equvivalent
SDH/Sonet 2,5 Gbit/s 2488320
kbit/s STM-16/OC-48 ODU 1 Payload
2488320 kbit/s OTM
2666057,143 kbit/s 10 Gbit/s 9953280
kbit/s STM-64-/OC-192 ODU2 Payload
9995276992 kbit/s OTM2
10709225,316 kbit/s 40 Gbit/s
39813120kbit/s STM-256/OC-768 ODU3 Payload
401501593322 kbit/s OTM3
43018413,559 kbit/s
1987 I realised a low noise optical receiver with
HEMT transistors and feedback over 3 stages. I
described the results in former conference.
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It shows that the Bit stream between US/Canada
and Europe was already 4 Tbit/s in the year
2000. Alcatel and Wireless companies are planning
to build a fibre optical Transmission between US
Canada and Europe to transport 4 Tbit/s over
only 4 fibres using WDM technology. Some OPEC
members and oil companies are planning to build
the same system around the globe with a length of
30.000 km, using Optical Amplifier
Technology. 3.4 Mobile communication Systems We
will have soon everywhere Universal mobile
communication systems (UMTS) with the 1,920
2.120 GHz with an average cell radius of 500 m
900 m and transmit power of 125 mW 2
W. 3.5 Internet Table 3.5.1 shows the
Internet history Table 3.5.1 Internet history
Figure 3.3.1 Bitrate per Cable in Tbit/s The
figure 3.3.1 shows the development of Bits
transported over one single cable. The squares
standing on their corner are representing copper
cables, the upper squares for optical fibres.
Just now (2005) we are able to transport 12
Tbit/s over one optical fibre using WDM
(wavelength division multiplexing). 40Gbit/s x
300 wavelength 12000 Gbit/s 12Tbit/s. The
figure 3.3.2 is a prediction of the possible bit
rate trends in optical fibres 2.
Figure 3.3.3 bitstream between the continents.
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• 4. Telecommunication Subscriber Trends
• (in Millions)

• Telecommunication technology resulted in the
  growth of the global information infrastructure.
  The Internet, a network of networks, is
  revolutionizing how information is accessed and
  how people communicate. The Internet has
  potential to change a persons lifestyle with
  services ranging from shopping, finding local
  entertainment to helping with childrens
  homework. Technological development in the last
  several years combined with new network
  architectures interconnecting various
  heterogeneous information systems created a truly
  global information infrastructure. Many future
  broadband applications such as streaming video
  and audio, real-time distance learning, medical
  imaging, movie downloads, and online gaming,
  targing both residential and enterprise targeting
  users, demand high bandwidth. An outcome of this
  demand were several technologies under
  development to provide advanced network services
  with increased capacity of 40 Gabit/s per second,
  Internet Protocol version 6 (IVv6), and IP over
  Dense Wavelength Division Multiplexing (DWDM)
  backbone.
• 3.6 High Definition TV
• The high definition TV of the future will have
  seven times more points 720 x 576 points than the
  todays TVs with 720 x 576 points. The Premiere
  a pay TV organisation, in Germany will bring
  three HDTV programmes, for cinema, sport and
  documentation at the end of this year. You can
  buy at german markets plasma flat screens with
  105 cm x 65 cm x 18 cm for only 1.490,-- . They
  show brilliant pictures with these TV sets. But
  there is still a lot to do to decide the digital
  Video Broadcasting (DVB) standard. European
  Telecommunication standard institute (ETSI) has
  published a draft for Digital Video Broadcasting
  (DVB). It describes in 70 pages second generation
  framing structure, channel coding and modulation
  systems for Broadcasting, Interactive Services,
  New Gathering and other broadband satellite
  applications. It will be difficult to find a
  compromise between microwave, satellite, mobile
  communication systems who have not enough
  bandwidth on one side and optical communication
  systems on the other side, who wants 140 Mbit/s
  for a TV programm, because of its DWDM
  possibility.

Fig 4.1 Trends in Telecommunication
Subscribers The figure 4.1 shows the trends of
the number of fixed and mobile phone users. It
shows that we will have nearly 10 Billion handies
around the year 2030. This means, every
inhabitant of the earth has one mobile phone in
average, if the trend of the last years will
persist.
Figure 4.2 Long Term Bitrate
Trends The Figure 4.2 shows trends in Digital
Access Technologies for a small office using two
different scenarios The first scenario is a
cautious scenario, predicting that one person
might use a capacity of up to 200 Mbit/s for data
exchange from his home office using modem
technology, whereas a more optimistic scenario
predicts a bitrate of about 1 Gbit/s used by one
single person.
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5 Trends in Networked Equipment

• 6. Equipment Visions
• Equipment visions is to be divided into several
  groups.
• Regarding Computers, I would like to list the
  development on the basic of past inventions.
• Calculation machines (Schickard, Babbage, Zuse)
• The Myth of Thinking Machines (Mortimer Taube
  1960)
• Engines of Creation (K. Eric Drexler 1986)
• The Future of Robot and Human Intelligence (Hans
  Moravec 1988)
• The Age of Intelligent Machines (Ray Kurzweil
  1990)
• The Age of Spiritual Machines (Ray Kurzweil 1999)
• The key words of the Computer trends are
• Desktop, Deskside, Laptop, Notebook, Portable,
  Ultraportable, Personal Digital Assistants

Figure 5.1 Trends in Networked Equipment Figure
5.1 shows the trend of networked equipment 3.
The TV set is being counted to the networked
equipment. As one can see, each inhabitants owns
at average nearly one TVset. The trend in fixed
and mobile subscribers goes to the same limit, as
the above diagram shows. You will have one
equipment for Internet, telephony in fixed
network, mobile and Television. Figure 5.2
shows trends in screen development 3. Beginning
around the year 1940, where black-and-white TV
sets usually having around 100.000 pixels,
increasing to around 600.000 pixels for color TV
sets and around 1.500.000 pixels for
state-of-the-art high definition TV sets (HDTV)
in the 1980s and 1990s. Regarding PC screens,
there is a trend to increase pixel count using
CRTs to nearly 5.000.000, whereas flat panel
display technology will probably expand pixel
count to more than 10.000.000 pixels per screen
about the year 2025.
Regarding mobile equipment after the handy,
there will be UMTS and next generations. TV sets
will probably emerge into Screen
Wallpapers. Special equipment are Video Games and
developments for Handicaped People like Sound
Future for the Deaf . 7. A Vision The Age of
Digital Lifestyles or The Third Culture The
vision of the future We will have limited
molecules and quasi unlimited bits.

• The analogy to the present lifestyle of the
  mobile society with traffic by road, rail and
  air
• The history from fairy tales and dreams to
  recognizeable facts
• The trend Interpretations and predictions
  utilizing a synergy of the above forecasts
• The future Limited molecules versus
  quasi-unlimited bits
• Telecommunication establishes an information
  society and with that democracy all over the
  world.
• Telecommunication via Internet Universities
  brings better education to the people in
  developing countries

Figure 5.2 Screen Trends
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8. Conclusions The paper gives an outlook into
the future of telecommunication. On the basis of
past development trends Ive tried to picture the
future. Let me close with a sentence of Ian
Pearson, British Telecoms futurologist, which he
said in 1999 Accuracy is impossible but
blurred vision is better than none at all. 9.
Poems of Ferdowsi which shows that coding was
used 1000 years ago. 10. References 1 SIA
Roadmap, update 2002, published
at http//public.itrs.net/Files/2002Update/Home.p
df 2 Bell Labs, Bachus 3 K.U. Stein,
2000 4 Sastri L. Kota, Kavaeh Pahlavan, Pentti
Leppanen Broadband Satellite Communications for
Internet Access 2004 by Kluver Acedemic
Publishers 5 CeBIT, Hannover Messe 2005 6
Shahnameh 7 Pejman History of
Telecommunication