MEETING THE CHALLENGE OF OUR TIME IN THE 21ST CENTURY

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MEETING THE CHALLENGE OF OUR TIME IN THE 21ST
CENTURY
Walter Hays, Global Alliance for Disaster
Reduction, University of North Carolina, USA

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CREATING PARADIGM SHIFTS THAT WILL ACCELERATE
THE TRANSITION FROM BEING DISASTER PRONE TO
BEING DISASTER RESILIENT
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THE CHALLENGE OF THE 21ST CENTURY

• Protecting and preserving PEOPLE and
  COMMUNITIES from the potential disaster agents of
  natural hazards

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A SNAPHOT OF OUR WORLD

• 7 billion people, and growing while
• Living and competing in an interconnected global
  economy,
• Producing 60 trillion of products each year, and
• Facing complex disasters every year that can
  adversely impact a communitys 3 Ss, 5Es, and
  1H.

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THE 3 Ss

• SAFETY (from the potential disaster agents of
  recurring natural hazards)
• SECURITY
• SUSTAINABILITY

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THE FIVE Es

• ECONOMY
• ENERGY
• ENVIRONMENT
• ECOLOGY
• EDUCATION

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THE 1 H

• HEALTH CARE

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A DISASTER is ---

• --- the set of failures that occur when three
  continuums 1)  people, 2) community (i.e., a set
  of habitats, livelihoods, and social
  constructs), and 3) recurring events (e.g.,
  floods, earthquakes, ...,) intersect at a point
  in space and time, when and where the people and
  community are not ready.   

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THE THREE CONTINUUMS OF EVERY DISASTER

• PEOPLE
• COMMUNITY
• RECURRING EVENTS (AKA the potential
  disaster agents of Natural Hazards, which are
  proof of a DYNAMIC EARTH)

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FIVE INTER-CONNECTED WEAK-LINKS CAUSE DISASTERS

• UN--PREPARED
• UNPROTECTED
• UN---WARNED
• UN--ABLE TO RESPOND
• UN--RESILIENT

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LIKELY CAUSES OF COMPLEX DISASTERS during THE
21ST CENTURY

• Increasing morbidity, mortality, homelessness,
  and economic losses from recurring natural
  hazards striking non-disaster-resilient
  communities
• Threats related to global climate change
• Environmental degradation and pollution of air,
  water, and soil
• Endangerment and extinction of plant and animal
  life

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liKELY CAUSES OF COMPLEX DISASTERS during THE
21ST CENTURY

• Poverty
• Chronic hunger
• Health care needs
• Increasing risk of pandemic disease
• Large-scale migration of people
• Endangered plant and animal life
• Conflict and terrorism

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AN UNDESIRABLE LEGACY OF THE 21ST CENTURY

• Before we realize it, we could share in an
  unnecessary and irreversible reduction in the
  quality of life on Planet Earth if we fail to
  design and implement a global strategy for
  disaster resilience.

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THE BEST SOLUTION SET IS THE FRAMEWORK OF
DISASTER RESILIENCE

• To anticipate and plan for the full spectrum of
  what can happen, and build capacity FOR
  preparedness, protection, early warning,
  emergency response, and recovery in every
  community.
• To inform, educate, train, and build equity in
  all sectors of the community,

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WHEN YOU KNOW WHAT TO DO AND HOW TO DO IT, ---
JUST DO IT!

• Communities working strategically can implement
  a realistic set of scientific, technical, and
  political solutions to reach the elusive goal of
  disaster resilience --- within EXISTING
  administrative, legal, and economic constraints,
  --- NOW.

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THE ART AND SCIENCE OF CREATING A PARADIGM SHIFT
FOR COMMUNITY DISASTER RESILIENCE ENCOMPASSES

• STRATEGIC PARTNERSHIPS
• INTEGRATION OF SCIENCE AND PUBLIC POLICY
• PREPAREDNESS, PROTECTION, EARLY WARNING, EM.
  RESPONSE, AND RECOVERY

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FIVE PILLARS OF DISASTER RESILIENCE
ARE INTERCONNECTED
PREPAREDNESS AND EARLY WARNING
PROTECTION
ALL ELEMENTS ARE INTERRELATED
RECOVERY
EMERGENCY RESPONSE
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THE GLOBAL AGENDA COMMUNITY DISASTER RESILIENCE
EXPERIENCES WITH PREPAREDNESS
EXPERIENCES WITH PROTECTION
GLOBAL BOOKS OF KNOWLEDGE
EXPAND PARTNERSHIPS FROM 1990 TO THE PRESENT
(E.G., IDNDR, AND ISDR)
EXPERIENCES WITH EMERGENCY RESPONSE
EXPERIENCES WITH RECOVERY
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FACTORS THAT FACILITATE PARADIGM SHIFTS

• PUBLIC AWARENESS OF EACH PROBLEM AND THE
  BENEFIT/COSTS OF ITS SOLUTION SET.
• A COMMON AGENDA PROMOTED BY PARTNERSHIPS
  THROUGHOUT THE WORLD
• INCENTIVES FOR POLITICAL LEADERS AND SCIENTISTS
  TO ADOPT AND IMPLEMENT PUBLIC POLICIES AND
  BEST PRACTICES FOR DISASTER RESILIENCE.

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CHANGES BASED ON A LARGER SOCIAL CONSTRUCT OF
THE ISSUES

• POLICY CHANGE 1 FOCUS ON THE NATURE AND
  APPROPRIATENESS OF ACTIONS BY GLOBAL PARTNERS
  AND THE WAYS TO ENLIST SUPPORT AND RESOURCES FOR
  THE FIVE PILLARS OF DISASTER RESILIENCE.

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CHANGES BASED ON A LARGER SOCIAL CONSTRUCT OF
THE ISSUES

• POLICY CHANGE 2 FOSTER CHANGE BY
  INTEGRATING POLICIES AND BEST PRACTICES FOR
  PREPAREDNESS, PROTECTION, EARLY WARNING,
  EMERGENCY RESPONSE, AND RECOVERY BASED ON
  EXISTING LEGAL MANDATES.

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CHANGES BASED ON A LARGER SOCIAL CONSTRUCT OF
THE ISSUES

• POLICY CHANGE 3 CREATE, ADJUST, AND REALIGN
  PARTNERSHIPS UNTIL YOU CAN SOLVE THE PROBLEMS
  FACED BY LOCAL COMMUN ITIES IN EVERY REGION.

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TOWARDS DISASTER RESILIENCE
TURNING POINTS Partnerships for Preparedness,
Protection, Early Warning Emergency Response, and
Recovery
THE KNOWLEDGE BASE
CAPACITY BUILDING
CONTINUING EDUCATION
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YOUR COMMUNITY
DATA BASES AND INFORMATION
HAZARDS GROUND SHAKING GROUND FAILURE
SURFACE FAULTING TECTONIC DEFORMATION TSUNAMI RUN
UP AFTERSHOCKS