A Decision Support System (DSS) for Amazon Conservation Planning Identification and Prevention of Potential Impacts of Infrastructure Development

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A Decision Support System (DSS) for Amazon
Conservation PlanningIdentification and
Prevention of Potential Impacts of Infrastructure
Development
JC Riveros, S. Rodrigues, G. Powell, C. Suarez,
W. Goulart-Silva, E. Pinage, A. Soto, C.
Scaramuzza, WWF Poverty - Environment
Partnership Meeting, November 19 2007
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Outline

• Purpose of the DSS Tool
• Spatial Scope
• DSS Structure
• Data Management
• Data Analysis
• Preliminary Outputs
• Future developments

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Purpose of the DSS Tool

• To provide a strong and consistent scientific
  underpinning for the WWF Amazon Vision and
  Strategy development by
• Identifying representative habitats to conserve
  the full expression of Amazonian diversity
• Conducting a gap analysis of the protected areas
  systems
• Incorporating an explicit freshwater conservation
  goal in the priority sites identification
• Evaluating the impact of the main pressures on
  the amazon biome
• Design a baseline for the monitoring of
  conservation interventions outcomes
• Create a database and an information system able
  to support the decision making process of the
  conservation planners

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Spatial Scope
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Overview of the DSS Structure
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Data Sources

• Biodiversity
• Terrestrial TNC's Ecosystems Map
• Freshwater WWF (hydrogeomorphic features)?
• Hidrology
• Watergap 2 University of Kiel
• Hydrosheds WWF et al
• Threats
• GLC 2000 European Commission - JRC
• Amazon Scenarios IPAM, WHRC, UMG
• Vulnerability
• Deforestation - GLC2000

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Biodiversity Heterogeneity Models

• Absence of wide-scale distribution information of
  most Amazon species
• Biodiversity surrogates based on available
  information and derived from enduring features

Terrestrial Biodiversity
423 classes
Freshwater Biodiversity
299 classes
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Cost Surface

• The cost surface was derived as a deforestation
  probability surface generated using IPAM/WHRC
  data. The procedure adopted was a sum of
  projected deforestation maps for the 2001-2050
  period.

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Cost Surface
Conversion Probability
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Data Analysis

• Analysis Goals
• ?Habitat Representation
• Heterogeneity Terrestrial and Freshwater
• ?Enhanced Resilience
• Big Blocks, Connectivity, Redundancy
• ?Ecological Processes
• Hydrological cycle maintenance
• Environmental services persistence
• ?Special Elements
• Endangered/ Keystone Species

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Planning Units

• Derived from HydroSHEDS dataset (Lehner et al.
  2006)?

41,600 Ecological Drainage Units
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Data Analysis Software Tools Targets

• We used C-Plan and Marxan decision support
  software to generate conservation priority area
  scenarios for the Amazon basin based on the
  principles of representation, irreplaceability,
  functionality, flexibility, vulnerability and
  connectivity (Scaramuzza et al. 2007)
• Conservation targets
• 30 baseline for all terrestrial and freshwater
  systems.
• 40 for high species turnover rates ER
  (e.g.Yungas)?
• extra value as a function of remanent
  vegetation. i.e. A highly vulnerable habitat
  will have a higher target reflecting the urgency
  of its conservation

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Analysis Results Different Scenarios
Using only strict protection PAs for
biodiversity conservation
Using PA (strict protection sustainable use)
Indigenous Territories for biodiversity
conservation
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Analysis Results Best Solution
IT SU PA
SP PA
No Protection
Areas gt 1.000.000 ha
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Analysis Results Climate Change Vulnerability
Climate envelope displacement- Block 19 (models
HAD3,NCAR,GISS,MIROC)?
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Deforestation (2003) and Road Development
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Projected Deforestation (2050) Road Development
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Above Ground Live Biomass (Saatchi, 2007)?
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Deforestation and Carbon Release(Peru 2010-2030)?
0,53 0,7 Pg
0,71 0,92 Pg
0,89 1,16 Pg
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Hydrologically linked impacts
Hydrologically connected model allows for the
identification of impacts at different
portionsof the basin upstream and downstream
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Future Improvements Impacts on Environmental
Services Livelihoods
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In summaryThe Amazon DSS tool can be used to

• Early identification of potential impacts at the
  basin and regional scale
• Comparison of Alternative Scenarios
• Biodiversity importance
• Importance for local livelihoods
• Deforestation potential (Carbon storage)?
• Information for/Negotiation with stakeholders
• Planning and consultation
• Mitigation and/or compensation
• Monitoring, enforcement and adaptation

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