Improving Methods for Poverty and Food Insecurity Mapping and Its Use at Country Level

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THE FIVIMS GLOBAL GIS DATABASE (FGGD)
FAO component of the Poverty and Food Insecurity
Mapping ProjectLead FAO Unit SDRN
Other main partners IIASA, CIESIN
Project Funding Government of Norway and FIVIMS
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The Poverty and Food Insecurity Mapping Project
has three components implemented by 9 partners
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The seven country case studies done by the seven
CGIAR Centers

1. CIAT Ecuador
2. CIMMYT Mexico
3. IFPRI Malawi
4. IITA Nigeria
5. ILRI Kenya
6. IRRI Bangladesh
7. IWMI Sri Lanka

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The main objective of the FAO component
DEVELOPMENT OF THE FIVIMS GLOBAL GIS DATABASE
(FGGD)
The FGGD is a GIS database and modeling framework
for better understanding of the global poverty
and food insecurity issues in SPATIAL and
ENVIRONMENTAL contexts related to agricultural
productivity and accessibility.
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The main expected use of the FGGD

• to be used as the main Global GIS database
  needed for implementation of the plans of actions
  of the three summits.

• MILLENIUM WORLD FOOD SUMMIT
  5 JOHANNESBURG
• SUMMIT SUMMIT

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IT IS ESTIMATED THAT THERE ARE OVER 800 MILLION
UNDERNOURISHED AND APPROXIMATELY 2 BILLION POOR
PEOPLE THESE FIGURES ARE BASED ON NATIONAL
STATISTICS

• BUT, IN ORDER TO UNDERSTAND THE DRIVERS OF HUNGER
  AND POVERTY
• WE ALSO NEED TO KNOW WHERE THEY LIVE

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IN PARTICULAR, ...WE NEED TO KNOW WHERE THEY ARE
IN RELATION TO

• Agroecological zones
• Marginal and productive lands
• Major crops and livestock production systems
• Market access
• Livelihood systems

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Poverty mapping Two approaches

• Bottom-up approach Using socio-economic data
  aggregated by administrative boundaries such as
  survey/census data
• Top-down approach Using satellite imagery,
  existing global environmental maps and GIS
  models.

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LEVEL 4 Maps for analysis of vulnerability Acces
sibility Pixel Ag. Economic Value Actual crop
zones for 28 crops Livestock production Rural
Population density Population Density in 2015
Subnational Nutrition Profiles,
GRID resolution 5 arc-minutes
The hierarchy of the maps in FGGD
Vector data scale 1 5 million
LEVEL 3 Maps Based on Models Potential crop
zones for 28 major crops Agro-ecological Zones,
Length of Growing Period Pixel shares of 4
land-use classes Croplands, Pasture, Forest and
Other Lands Environmental Constraints, Multiple
cropping zones
LEVEL 2 Primary data layers Soil and terrain
properties, Farming system zones, Precipitation,
Temperature, Protected Areas, Irrigated Areas,
LEVEL 1 Base Maps Coastlines, DEM, National
and Subnational Boundaries,
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SPATIAL and ENVIRONMENTAL analysis at pixel level
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GIS technology constraints Low accuracy at low
resolution
BARBADOS
Pixelization at 30x30 arc-seconds
Comparison of the two pixel sizes
Pixelization at 5x5 arc-minutes
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GIS technology constraints maps from different
sources may not match
FAO/UNESCO Soil map of the World
UN standard coastlines/country boundaries
Landscan population density map
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Length of growing period (LGP) zones
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Multiple cropping zones rainfed conditions
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POTENTIAL SUITABILITY INDEX MAPS COMPLETED FOR 28
CROPS WHICH ACCOUNT FOR ABOUT 70 OF GLOBAL CROP
PRODUCTION
1 banana (1 type)
2 barley (winter and spring barley combined - 16 types)
3 cassava (1 type)
4 citrus (1 type)
5 cocoa (1 type)
6 coffee (robusta and arabica coffee combined 2 types)
7 cotton (7 types)
8 groundnut (3 types)
9 maize (grain and silage maize combined - 19 types)
10 millet (pearl millet and foxtail millet combined - 9 types)
11 oil palm (1 type)
12 olive (1 type)
13 pulses (phaseolus bean, chickpea and cowpea combined - 17 types)
14 rape (8 types)
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Crops list continued
15 rice (indica and japonica wetland rice combined - 8 types)
16 rye (winter and spring rye combined - 8 types)
17 sorghum (7 types)
18 soybean (6 types)
19 sweet potato (3 types)
20 sugar beet (5 types)
21 sugarcane (1 type)
22 sunflower (6 types)
23 tea (1 type)
24 tobacco (4 types)
25 vegetables (cabbage, onion and tomato combined 10 types)
26 wheat (winter and spring wheat combined - 16 types)
27 white potato (4 types)
28 yams (white yam, greater yam, yellow yam and cocoyam (taro) combined - 6 types)
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Accessibility Distance to Roads
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India population density in areas gt 5 km from
roads
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India population density in areas gt 5 km from
roads
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FUTURE WORK What can we learn by analysing
accessibility maps at global scale?

• e.g. in India, there are approximately 147
  million people (15) living more than 5 km away
  from roads.

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Accessibility Distance to Markets
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Distance to the coast
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FUTURE WORK What can we learn by analysing
environmental maps at global scale?

• e.g. one preliminary figure about 620 million
  people live in agro-ecological zones, where
  moisture and temperature allow crop growth for
  less than 120 days.
• incomes of these people have to come mainly from
  sources other than rain-fed cropping (e.g.
  irrigated cropping, livestock, etc.)
• and we would like to know what will the number
  of these people also in 2015.

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ARIDITY INDEX
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AREA OF CROPLANDS BY ARIDITY INDEX
Aridity Index(P/PET) Croplands Sq. Km.
1 Hyper-arid (lt0.05) 55,737
2 Arid (0.05-0.20) 685,144
3 Semi-arid (0.21-0.50) 4,454,108
4 Dry sub-humid (0.51-0.65) 2,268,655
5 Humid (gt0.65) 8,608,590
6 Cold (Boreal and Polar Temperatures) 30,815
   
 TOTAL 16,103,049
 
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DRAFT
Future work
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Future work (contd)

• Do an intervention analysis in vulnerable areas,
  e.g. comparing various irrigation projects for
  the percent arid lands and the number of people
  to be affected
• Do a meta analysis of the seven country case
  studies completed by the CG Centers and 15-20
  country level poverty maps done by the WB
• Explore how top-down and bottom-up approaches
  could be combined to complement each other

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Important questions to be answered to assist
Science Councils priority setting role are the
following

1. Are most of the poor in a country/region rural or
   urban?
2. Are most of the rural poor in Favorable Rural
   Areas (FRA) or in Marginal Rural Areas (MRA)?
3. What are the commodities and farming systems for
   FRAs in a country? What are the poors farming
   systems in these FRA?
4. What are the commodities and farming systems for
   MRAs in a country? What are the poors farming
   systems in these MRA?

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Thank you.
ergin.ataman_at_fao.org
www.povertymap.net www.fao.org
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Combined suitability of Land for rainfed crops
and pastures
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Nigth lights
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CROPLANDS (PERCENT SHARE PER PIXEL)
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2 billion people living in extreme poverty ( less
than PPP1/day) at the time of the WFSfyl (2002)