Title: The Challenge of Energy and Environment in China and the World
1The Challenge of Energy and Environment in China
and the World
- John P. Holdren
- Teresa John Heinz Professor of Environmental
Policy - John F. Kennedy School of Government
Professor of
Environmental Science Policy - Department of Earth Planetary Sciences
- HARVARD UNIVERSITY
- Director
- THE WOODS HOLE RESEARCH CENTER
- Panel Presentation for the
Harvard Alumni
Association Global Series Meeting
Shanghai 29 March 2008
2Why is energy important?
- Because
- meeting basic human needs is important
- economic growth is important,
- the environment is important,
- international relations are important,
- and energy is intimately entwined with all
- four.
3Economically
- Affordable energy is a crucial ingredient of
sustained prosperity sustainable development. - Energy is 10 of GDP, 10 of world trade, and a
large part of trade deficits in importing
countries - Costly energy ? inflation, recession,
frustration of economic aspirations of the poor. - Investments in energy-supply systems are 800
billion/yr worldwide 15 of gross domestic
investment in developing countries.
4Environmentally
- Energy supply major contributor to dangerous
difficult environmental problems from local to
global - Specifically, energy supply is the source of
- most indoor and outdoor air pollution, most acid
rain - much of the hydrocarbon and trace-metal pollution
of soil and ground water - almost all of the oil humans add to the ocean
- most radioactive waste
- most of the human emissions of greenhouse gases
that are disrupting global climate.
5International relations
- Oil gas are so important to economies that
suppliers can use cut-offs as a weapon, and
importers may threaten or wage war to gain or
maintain access. - Spread of nuclear-energy technologies spreads
access to nuclear-weapon capabilities - Energy systems are force-multiplier targets for
terrorists dams, nuclear reactors, oil
refineries - Internal international tensions upheavals can
result from energy-strategy inadequacies that
threaten, create, or perpetuate great economic or
environmental harm.
6Growth of world population prosperity over past
150 years brought 20-fold increase in energy use
Growth rate 1850-1950 was 1.45/yr, driven mainly
by coal. From 1950-2000 it was
3.15/yr, driven mainly by oil natural gas.
7Rapid growth high fossil-fuel dependence are
continuing
Units are millions of tonnes of oil equivalent
Growth rate 2000-2006 averaged 2.7/yr.
8Much of the growth is in Asia Bars show role
of China India in growth 2000-2006
WEO 2007
9Some comparative country data for 2006
- USA
China India - Population, millions 299
1311 1122 - GDP/pers, 2006 (ppp) 44300
7900 3800 - Total energy supply, EJ 106
86 29 - of which fossil fuels 88 84
62 - Oil consumption, EJ 42
16 5 - Oil imports, Mb/d 12.3
3.5 1.9 - Electricity generation, TWh 4250 2830
730 - of which coal generates 50
80 70 - Fossil C emitted in CO2, MtC 1710
1640 380 - ppp at purchasing-power parity, EJ
exajoules, TWh terawatt-hours, MtC megatons
of carbon in CO2. Total energy supply includes
biomass fuels. Electricity generation is gross,
not net.
10Continued high growth is expected to 2030
US EIA 2007 and IEA WEO 2007 reference forecasts
- 2006 2030
- Primary energy, exajoules
- World 526 800
- United States 106 150
- China 86 175
- Electricity, trillion kWh
- World 19.3 35
- United States 4.3 6.0
- China 2.8 7.5
11and beyond, if business as usual continues
- World use of primary energy reaches
- 2.5 times the 2000 level by 2050,
- 4 times by 2100.
- World electricity generation reaches
- 3 times the 2000 level by 2050,
- 5 times by 2100.
12Fossil fuels are expected to continue to dominate
supply in the decades immediately ahead
WEO 2007
13Projected growth of oil use for road transport in
Asia is particularly large
WEO 2007
14These oil demands are projected to be met mainly
by imports
WEO 2007
15Projected growth of coal-fired electric power
plants in Asia is also high
- Coal-fired capacity, GWe, actual USEIA
projection -
- USA China India World
-
- 2003 310 239 67 1120
- 2010 319 348 95 1300
- 2020 345 531 140 1600
- 2030 457 785 161 2000
World coal-electric capacity goes up 900 GWe by
2030, and 640 GWe of the increase is in China and
India.
Source US EIA, International Energy Outlook 2006
16High fossil-fuel dependence already causes big
problems for Asia and the world
- Increasing dependence on imported oil natural
gas means economic vulnerability, as well as
international tensions and potential for conflict
over access terms. - Coal burning for electricity and industry and oil
burning in vehicles are main sources of severe
urban and regional air pollution SOx, NOx,
hydrocarbons, soot with big impacts on public
health, acid precipitation. - Emissions of CO2 from ALL fossil-fuel burning are
largest driver of global climate disruption,
already associated with increasing harm to human
well-being and rapidly becoming more severe. - The oil market, pollutant transport,
climate are global. Each country is
affected by what other countries do.
17Developing Asias oil imports from Persian Gulf
Source EIA International Energy Outlook 2006
are now bigger than North Americas and growing
faster
18??????????????Forecasts of SO2 and NO2 Emissions
?? Scenario 2000 2010 2020
????(??) SO2 (10,000 tons) A ?? Scenario A 2719 4072 5738
????(??) SO2 (10,000 tons) B ?? Scenario B 2719 3900 4947
????(??) SO2 (10,000 tons) C ?? Scenario C 2719 3443 4056
????(??) NOX (10,000 tons) A ?? Scenario A 1988 3417 4982
????(??) NOX (10,000 tons) B ?? Scenario B 1988 3273 4295
????(??) NOX (10,000 tons) C ?? Scenario C 1988 2889 3521
Under the preferred (green) scenario, Chinese NOx
emissions still increase 75 by 2020, SOx
emissions by 50.
Liu Shijin, The State Council, 2004
19Health Costs from Particulate Pollution in China
Source Clear Water, Blue Skies Chinas
Environment in the New Century, World Bank, 1997.
20Acid precipitation under BAU growth
Wet and dry reactive nitrogen deposition from the
atmosphere, early 1990s and projected for 2050
21China passes USA as biggest CO2 emitter in 2007
22The temperature of the Earth is rising steeply
C
Green bars show 95 confidence intervals
2005 was the hottest year on record the 13
hottest all occurred since 1990, 23 out of the 24
hottest since 1980.
J. Hansen et al., PNAS 103 14288-293 (26 Sept
2006)
23This climatic disruption is already harmful
Weakening of the East Asia Monsoon is an example
Qi Ye, Tsinghua University, May 2006
Predicted by climate models, this change has
produced increased flooding in the South of China
and increased drought in the North.
24Floods have been increasing on every continent
Major floods per decade, 1950-2000
The most dramatic rising trend is in Asia.
25Under BAU much bigger disruption is coming
Last time T was 2ºC above 1900 level was 130,000
yr BP, with sea level 4-6 m higher than
today. Last time T was 3ºC above 1900 level was
30 million yr BP, with sea level 20-30 m higher
than today. Note Shaded bands denote 1 standard
deviation from mean in ensembles of model runs
IPCC (2007) scenarios
EU target ?T 2ºC
IPCC 2007
26Stabilizing CO2 concentration to limit T increase
requires big emissions reductions from BAU
BAU (? 6C)
(3C)
(2C)
Path for 50 chance of avoiding ?Tavg gt2C (gold)
is much more demanding than path for 50 chance
of avoiding gt3C (green).
27Solutions better technologies are key
- ONLY WITH IMPROVED TECHNOLOGIES CAN WE
- limit oil imports oil dependence overall
without incurring excessive economic or
environmental costs - improve urban air quality while meeting growing
demand for automobiles - use the worlds abundant coal resources without
intolerable impacts on regional air quality, acid
rain, and global climate - expand the use of nuclear energy enough to make a
difference for climate change and oil gas
dependence, while still reducing
accident/terrorism proliferation risks
28Needed new or improved technologies
- Cleaner, more fuel-efficient motor vehicles
hybrids (diesels, plug-in hybrids) - More energy-efficient commercial residential
buildings - Fuel- and electricity-efficient manufacturing
- Improved coal technologies to make electricity
hydrogen with CO2 capture storage - Advanced nuclear reactors with increased safety
and proliferation-resistant fuel cycles - Biofuels that dont compete with food forests
- Cheaper photovoltaic cells
29Policy innovation is needed in order to
- provide the scale, continuity, coordination of
effort in energy research development needed to
realize in a timely way the required
technological innovations - get the benefits of market competition in the
electricity sector while protecting public goods
(provision of basic energy services to the poor,
preservation of adequate system reliability,
protection of environment) - ensure the rapid diffusion of cleaner and more
efficient energy technologies across the least
developed countries and sectors - devise and implement an equitable, adequate, and
achievable cooperative framework for limiting
global emissions of greenhouse gases
30Asias role in solutions
- Good education system, high production of
scientists engineers, business environment
favor rapid innovation. - Asias growing role in global energy-environment
problems means USA Europe want to cooperate
with Asia to solve these problems (e.g.,
cost-sharing, technology transfer). - High growth rate of Asian economies allows for
dominance of new, efficient technologies
infrastructure over old, inefficient ones. - This and other factors position Asia to be a
world leader in renewable energy, energy
efficiency, clean coal. - Underdeveloped rural regions in Asia provide
opportunity to plan build new
resource-conserving towns.
31Thank you!