Demography of Contemporary Uzbekistan A Presentation by Ross Smeltzer

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Demography of Contemporary UzbekistanA
Presentation by Ross Smeltzer
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Geographic Location
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Post-Soviet Politics of Uzbekistan

• According to the US Department of State, while,
  in theory, The constitution provides for a
  presidential system with separation of powers
  between the executive, legislative, and judicial
  branches. In practicePresident Islam Karimov and
  the centralized executive branch dominate
  political life and exercise nearly complete
  control over the other branchesCitizens did not
  have the right in practice to change their
  government through peaceful and democratic
  means.
• In 2009, Uzbekistan was classified by Freedom
  House as one of its Worst of the Worst and
  received the lowest possible ratings in terms of
  both civil liberties and political rights.

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The Post-Soviet Transition in Uzbekistan

• President Karimov, a former economist, committed
  Uzbekistan to a gradualist transition to a
  market economy.
• Uzbekistans GDP declined during the first years
  of the economic transition, recovered by 1995 and
  is now growing. The percentage of the population
  classified as living below the poverty line also
  increased during the transition period.
• But by 2001 it was the only country in the former
  Soviet Union to have surpassed its 1989 level of
  GDP.
• Agriculture remains the mainstay of the economy
  and contributes around a third of its gross
  domestic product. This is untypical of the
  former Soviet states, and has resulted in a very
  oligarch-dominated economy.

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Uzbekistans Post-Soviet Economic Growth
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Economic Transition Continued

• According to the UNs Development and Transition
  agency, Uzbekistans recent growth has not been
  accompanied with a reduction in inequality and
  poverty.
• The percentage of Uzbeks who lived in poverty
  was 44 in 1989 and by 2007 this number had grown
  to 47.
• Poverty in the country is an overwhelmingly rural
  phenomena, with 55 of the rural population
  living in poverty compared with 4 in the
  capital, Tashkent.
• This has implications for Uzbek emigration
  behavior.

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Uzbekistans Population within the Soviet Union

• Between 1897 and 1991, the population of the
  region that is now Uzbekistan more than
  quintupled, while the population of the entire
  territory of the former Soviet Union had not
  quite doubled.
• In 1991 the natural rate of population increase
  (the birth rate minus the death rate) in
  Uzbekistan was 28.3 per 1,000--more than four
  times that of the Soviet Union as a whole, and an
  increase from ten years earlier.
• Five of the eight most densely populated
  provinces of the former Soviet Union--Andijon,
  Farghona, Tashkent, Namangan, and Khorazm--are
  located in Uzbekistan
• In the last All-Union Census (1989) 71.4 of the
  Republics citizens were ethnic Uzbeks.

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General Population Characteristics

• According to estimates, Uzbekistan was expected
  to have 27,606,007 citizens by 2009 (Researchers
  must rely on estimates, since the last census of
  the republic was in 1989. A census is scheduled
  for 2010, however.)
• This makes it the 42nd most populous country in
  the world and the most populous of the
  post-Soviet Central Asian republics. Its
  population comprises nearly half of the total
  population of Central Asia.
• Ethnic Uzbeks now constitute around 80 of the
  republics population, with Russians making up
  around 6 and Tajiks a further 5. The rest of
  the population is composed of small contingents
  of Tatars, Kazakhs, Armenians, Koreans and
  Karakalpaks.

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Population Structure

• Uzbekistan is not only a populous country. It is
  also a relatively youthful one.
• Age Structure
• 0-14 years 28.1 (male 3,970,386/female
  3,787,371)
• 15-64 years 67 (male 9,191,439/female
  9,309,791)
• 65 years and over 4.9 (male 576,191/female
  770,829) (2009 est.)
• Median Age
• total 24.7 years
• male 24.2 years
• female 25.2 years (2009 est.)
• Urbanization
• urban population 37 of total population (2008)
• rate of urbanization 1.6 annual rate of change
  (2005-10 est.)

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Population Stucture 1990
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Population Pyramid 2000
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Population Pyramid 2010
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Projected Population Pyramid 2050
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Russias Population Structure in Comparison

• Age Structure
• 0-14 years 14.8 (male 10,644,833/female
  10,095,011)
• 15-64 years 71.5 (male 48,004,040/female
  52,142,313)
• 65 years and over 13.7 (male 5,880,877/female
  13,274,173) (2009 est.)
• Median Age
• total 38.4 years
• male 35.2 years
• female 41.6 years (2009 est.)

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Russian Population Pyramid 2010
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Central Asian Populations in Comparison
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Uzbekistans Population Growth
According to USAID, the population growth rate of
Uzbekistan was 0.94 in 2009, making it the
country with the 134th highest population growth
rate, below that of the United States at 130th.
Russias population growth rate, in contrast, is
-0.47.
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Urban vs. Rural Population Growth
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Population Continued

• The UN has projected that by 2025 the Uzbek
  population could be as high as 34, 203,000 and
  that by 2050 it could reach 40,513,000.

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Uzbekistans Fertility Rate

• Though Uzbekistans population has been growing
  steadily since the 1960s, its fertility rate
  began stagnating at around the same time. It then
  began declining to its present rate.
• Uzbekistans 2009 fertility rate is 1.95 children
  born/woman (2009 est.)
• According to UNICEF, it was 4.07 in 1990 and 2.36
  in 2003.
• The republics crude birth rate is 17.58
  births/1,000 population (2009 est.)
• In comparison, Russias fertility rate is 1.41
  children born/woman (2009 est.) and its birth
  rate is 11.1 births/1,000 population (2009 est.)

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Uzbekistans Declining Fertility Rate
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The Long Term Decline in Uzbek Fertility Rates

• This data was taken from Magali Barbieri, Alain
  Blums and Elena Dolknighs Nuptuality,
  Fertility, Use of Contraception and Family
  Policies in Uzbekistan.
• The authors argue that the demographic
  transition is well under way in Uzbekistan and
  that it is a product both of Soviet-era
  modernization and contemporary government policy.

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The Uzbek Demographic Transition in Regional
Perspective
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Regional Comparison Continued (up to 2004)
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Explanations for Declining Fertility

• Barbieri, Blum and Dolkigh argue that Soviet
  educational modernization, specifically programs
  targeted towards women (womens education
  programs, availability of abortions and the
  mandatory inclusion of women into the workplace),
  account for the decline in the fertility rate.
• Uzbek Literacy
• total population 99.3
• male 99.6
• female 99 (2003 est.)
• Governmental Efforts to lower Fertility
• Buckley, Barrett and Asminkin find that the
  Karimov government has actively campaigned to
  reduce fertility and has made family-planning a
  governmental priority
• They argue that the Red Apple Program, a
  state-funded program to increase family-planning
  awareness, pressures women to use IUDs, at the
  expense of all other forms of contraception.
• One Bukharan woman reported that when you go to
  the clinic after the birth, they insist on the
  IUD. My gynecologist said to me, Lie down Ill
  apply the IUD. You shouldnt become pregnant for
  3 years. They put pressure on women.

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Life Expectancy and Mortality in Uzbekistan

• Life expectancy at birth for the total population
  was, in 2009, 71.96 years
• For men it was 68.95 years
• For women it was 75.15 years

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Top Ten Causes of Death in Uzbekistan

• Ischaemic heart disease 33
• Cerebrovascular diseases 14
• Lower respiratory infections 6
• Hypertensive heart disease 5
• Cirrhosis of the liver 4
• Perinatal conditions 3
• Inflammatory heart diseases 3
• Tuberculosis 3
• Chronic obtrusive pulmonary disease 2
• Diabetes mellitus 2

• The WHO in Uzbekistan estimates that The leading
  broad-group causes of death are cardiovascular
  diseases (57.87), respiratory disease (8.38),
  cancer (7.24), external causes (injuries and
  poisoning) (7.21), diseases of the digestive
  system (6.43) and infectious and parasitic
  diseases (2.88).
• Most of the widespread health problems are
  related to poor nutrition, environments and food
  and water safety, and low physical activity.

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Mortality Rates Continued

• The Death Rate of Uzbekistan in 2009 was 5.29
  (deaths/ 1000 persons). In 2003 it was 7.97 and
  in 2007 it was 7.73. In 2009 Russias was 16.2
  and Ukraines was 16.4.

• The Under-5 mortality rate in 1990 was 74 (per
  1000 births)
• This declined to 38 in 2008
• The infant mortality rate (under 1) was 61 in
  1990
• It was 34 in 2008

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Long Term Mortality Decline
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Infant Mortality and Vaccination Rates
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Demographic Transition Model

• Model designed to represent the transition from
  pre-industrial to modern society.
• Most developing countries fall within the second
  or third stages of the model
• Uzbekistans declining Death Rate and Birth Rate
  (with the predicted declining Fertility Rate)
  means that it is within these transition stages.

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Migration

• Konstantin Romodovsky, the head of Russias
  migration service, said that Uzbekistan is the
  third-largest source of migrant labor for Russia.
  
• In 2006, a total of 500,000 Uzbek migrants
  travelled to Russia for work.
• Most are, according to the United Nations
  Development Program for Uzbekistan, forced to
  work abroad because of a lack of opportunity in
  Uzbekistan.
• Uzbekistans Net Migration Rate is -2.94
  migrant(s)/1,000 population (2009 est.)
• At least 10 of Uzbekistans labor force works
  abroad, mostly in Russia and Kazakhstan.
• Most Uzbek labor migrants remain abroad for
  between 3-10 years.

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Migration(departed) vs. migration(arrived)
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Migration Continued

• 33 of external labor migrants have higher
  education
• 31 have secondary education
• 26.2 have specialized post-secondary education
• Migrants can earn 300-400 a month in Russia.
  They would typically earn 145,000 sums (115) a
  month in Uzbekistan.
• One female interviewee said that What work can
  you find in the village? All you can do is work
  in the field all year. My husband tried to earn
  more, and went to work in the field when he had a
  temperature, and when it was raining. He earned
  peanuts  - not enough for anything...
• On average, individual migrants send 90,000 sums
  home from abroad.
• Migrant remittances represent around 7 of
  Uzbekistans GDP, much lower than Armenias,
  Tajikstans or Moldovas.

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Images
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Bibliography

• Agadjanian, Victor and Makarova, Ekaterina. From
  Soviet Modernization to Post-Soviet
  Transformation Understanding Marriage and
  Fertility Dynamics in Uzbekistan. Development
  and Change. 34(3) 447-473 (2003).
• Barbieri, Magali, Blum, Alain, Dolknigh, Elena.
  Nuptiality, Fertility, Use of Contraception, and
  Family Policies in Uzbekistan. Population
  Studies. Vol. 50, No. 1 (March, 1996) pp. 69-88.
• Buckley, Cynthia, Barrett, Jennifer and
  Asminkin, Yakov P., Reproductive and Sexual
  Health Among Young Adults in Uzbekistan. Studies
  in Family Planning. (35)1 1-14 (2004).
• CIA The World Factbook
• UNDPs Human Development Report 2009
• United Nations Department of Economic and Social
  Affairs/ Population Division Country Profile,
  Uzbekistan
• U.S. Census Bureaus International Database
• Uzbekistan in Figures Joint Analysis by the
  UNDP Country Office and the Center for Economic
  Research in Tashkent, Uzbekistan
• World Banks Data Finder Country Profile,
  Uzbekistan
• The World Bank Country Brief 2010, Uzbekistan
• World Health Organization Country Profile,
  Uzbekistan