Title: Climate change mitigation and Human Development Goals: reconciliation not confrontation
1Climate change mitigation and Human Development
Goals reconciliation not confrontation
Pre-sessional consultations of the IPCC TAR 27-28
November 2003, Milan Italy
- Jiahua Pan
- (panjh_at_163bj.com)
- Research Centre for
- Sustainable Development
- CASS, China
2Research Center for Sustainable Development work
on climate change mitigation frustration
- Mandate academic research and policy analysis on
sustainable development related issues - Nature RINGO, independent
- Goals try to find solutions, but always
unsuccessful - Frustration reconciliation and confrontations in
the process, no easy way out - Way out? We are trying
3Kyoto Targets from Berlin Mandate to Marrakech
Records
June 1997
KP Dec. 1997
Marrakech, 2001
EU 15
5.2
3.6
Change of base year for some Parties
Sinks US withdraw
4Emissions target as a goal, at what level?
- For both developed and developing country, there
are three major categories of goals - Political and/or social stability
- Economic growth or development
- Environment and natural resources
- Climate goal a subset category of goals, must be
subject to the requirement of higher order goals.
5Carbon emission Infrastructure
Carbon
Roads
Railways
Infrastructure
Steel
Airport
Undergrounds
Cement
Water Supply Treatment Facilities
Chemicals
Others
Flood Control Drainage Systems
6A decent living standard
education
access to clean water
necessary calories for survival
basic health care
7Three types of emissions
luxurious / wasteful emissions
collective consumption
basic needs
8Emissions for Basic needsa right for decent
living standard but not unlimited
- Achievement of human development potentials is a
basic human right that should be respected for - human development is not unlimited bounded by
biological and physical constraints - once basic development potentials are realised,
no need for further increase in emissions for
basic needs but automatic reductions
9Overall trend of human development Basic
necessity consumption nutrition(k/c.d)
Sufficiency rate around 3200 calories/day/capita
LDCs lower than subsistence
China,Brazil in between, still increasing
10The Role of Technology Transfer
Currently in use technologies (CUT)
emissions
Deved countries no wasteful consumption
CUT for BAT potential
Emissions path to fulfillment of human
development under current in use technologies
Best available technologies (BAT)
Emissions path to fulfillment of human
development under best available technologies
Subsistence/survival emissions
time
11Linking human development goals to emissions
requirement
- setting the first order goal human
development. This can be based on short and/or
long term development goals. - the goal is country driven and country
specific. - the goal must exclude
- unrealistic goals
- luxurious and/or wasteful components
- transparent and available to international
community - setting the low emissions goal as a second
level target
12Climate change mitigation what should and can we
do?
- Obligatory
- satisfaction of human basic needs and
- restrictions of excessive / wasteful emissions.
- Basic commitment Voluntary
- technological progress and
- institutional innovation
- Further commitment Conditional on
- transfer of technologies or financial assistance
by the developed country - not compromise human development goals nor
encourage luxurious / wasteful emissions - no credits of emissions reductions will be
counted if no progress
13How we can make it in practice?
- voluntary goal both developed developing
countries can commit - developed population, tech innovation,
economic growth rate - developing social, economic and technological.
- the goal must be subject to international
scrutiny??? - no unrealistic goals
- no luxurious and/or wasteful components
- ???progressive taxation on carbon as a
mechanism??? - discourage luxurious/wasteful emissions
- raise financial resources for tech transfer
- provide a market signal for low carbon tech and
consumption
14Reporting and Implementation
- Quantification of emissions targets
- Step 1 Assessment of development goals
- Step 2 Specification of socio-economic and
environmental targets - Step 3 Identification of low carbon development
paths taking into account of availability of
capitals and technologies. - Verification of Emissions reductions
- ex ante information
- ex post verification
- Net reductions
- Incentives and dis-incentives for implementation
- emissions trading
- Conditionality requirement
- Progressive taxation on emissions
- No exemption of luxurious emissions
15Problems to be resolved
- Human development goals what goals?
- Short, medium, long term economic development
gals as the basis for scrutiny? - Definition of basic needs
- Food (3200k/d/c), shelter (30-50????m2/c),clean
water, health? - Definition of luxurious/wasteful emissions?
- Use of large, empty and luxurious cars? Several
houses/households? - Will it be effective in emissions reductions?
- Workable or not?
- Real effects