Avian Influenza Modeling

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Avian Influenza Modeling

• By John Fujita
• Research Institution Pacific Disaster Center
• Research Supervisor Mike Napier
• Home Institution University of Hawaii, Manoa

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Background on Avian Influenza

• Family orthomyxoviradae
• Relative of common flu
• Most prevalent in birds
• Spread
• Direct contact
• Fecal matter
• nasal and ocular discharges
• Symptoms
• Pneumonia, eye infections, pancreatic damage, and
  severe respiratory diseases

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Economic Impact

• 19831984 outbreak of Highly Pathogenic AI in the
  USA
• Destruction of more than 17 million birds
• 63 million in Federal funds
• additional 350 million in increased consumer
  costs

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Historic Pandemics

• 1918-1919 Spanish Flu
• Worst Pandemic in History
• 50 Million Deaths
• Over 500,000 dead in US
• 1957-1958 Asian Flu
• 70,000 deaths in US
• 1968-1969 Hong Kong Flu
• 34,000 deaths in US

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Potential Impact of a Pandemic

• 20-50 of the world human population infected
• 250 million deaths

"We at WHO the World Health Organization
believe that the world is now in the gravest
possible danger of a pandemic" Dr. Shigeru Omi,
the WHO's Western Pacific Regional Director, 23
February 2005
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Cycle of Avian Influenza
Source from www.doh.state.fl.us/Disease_ctrl/
epi/htopics/Avian_Influenza.ppt
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Recent Breakouts

• 108 confirmed human case studies
• Infection clusters
• First-time infection of multiple species
• Death rate going down

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My Contributions

• Human case studies (at provincial level)
• World Health Organization 2004
• Animal case studies (at least district level)
• OIE 1997
• GIS data layers
• Poultry and population density
• Migratory bird flyways
• Airline routes
• Geospatial data
• Rainfall, elevation, temperature, humidity,
  hydrology, wind direction

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Conclusion

• MORE FUNDING for PDC
• Saving of millions of lives

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Future of Project

• Develop knowledge base and gather raw data- John
  Fujita and Mike Napier

Preliminary Model and Analysis John Fujita and
Mike Napier
Develop contacts and obtain complete data Allen
Clark
Complete Model and Analysis Mike Napier
Draw insightful conclusions- Mike Napier
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Acknowledgements

• Center for Adaptive Optics
• Malika Bell
• Lisa Hunter
• Liz Espinoza
• National Science Foundation
• Maui Economic Development Board
• Isla Yap
• Leslie Willkins
• Maui Community College
• Mark Hoffman

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BIG MAHOLOS

• Pacific Disaster Center
• Mike Napier
• This project is supported by the National Science
  Foundation Science and Technology Center for
  Adaptive Optics, managed by the University of
  California at Santa Cruz under cooperative
  agreement No. AST - 9876783.

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Any Questions?
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Preliminary Model