Peak Oil and the

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Peak Oil and the Export Import Oil Endgame
Buenos Aires, November 6, 2008
Kjell Aleklett Global Energy Systems Uppsala
University, Sweden Kjell.aleklett_at_fysast.uu.se www
.fysast.uu.se/ges Blog aleklett.wordpress.com
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Kjell
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Uppsala Global Energy Systems
Web page www.fysast.uu.se/ges
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Where to find fossil fuels
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The Historical Peak Oil Endgame
The end of the Oil Age
Oct 23rd 2003 Leaders from The Economist printed
edition
On a time scale starting at year 0 and ending
4000 years later everyone agree that there will
be a peak in the oil production between 2000 and
2100
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GDP and oil use per capita
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GDP per capita
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Oil Intensity
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Oil intensity scenarios
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A Sustainable World Scenario
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An Inconvenient Truth About Oil
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Oilfields in USA part of the fields in the
world
Y2, X2
Y1 Reserves US 48 X1 Production US 48 Y2
Reserves Alaska X2 Production Alaska Y3
Reserves M.G. X3 Production M.G.
Y1, X1
Y3, X3
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M. King Hubbert 1956 The First Oil End Game
f. 1903, d 1989 "Our ignorance is not so vast as
our failure to use what we know."
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US Lower 48
35 years
1956
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Import and Export countries
25 Mbpd - USA needs to import al the oil from
Saudi, Russia, Norway, Nigeria and Venezuela
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The Peak Oil End Game in USA
1971
By 2030 the likely production in USA will be 2
million barrels per year
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EIA-DOE Energy consumption in USA
2030 27,7 Mbpd 2004 20,7 Mbpd Increase
7,0 Mbpd Production 2030 2,0 Mbpd Import to
USA 25 Mbpd
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China Discovery and Production
Production will start to decline within 5 years
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The world needs to increase the import with 30
mbpd by 2030 - from 48 mbpd to 78 mbpd
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Export countries 2030
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Venezuela Heavy Oil Orinoco belt
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Oil produktion in SSA
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The Norwegian Oil End Game
A field by field analysis with maximum discovery
potential. As Norway uses 0.2 Mbpd the export in
2030 will be around 0.2 Mbpd
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The Russian Oil End Game
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Future export of oil from Russia
We cannot count on more then 3 Mbpd in export
from Russia in year 2030
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The Middle East
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Total 115 bb in 2033
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Production in Saudi Arabia
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New discoveries from 1995 till 2025 is 100
billion barrels found and 100 billion barrels
expected to be found. USGS mean prediction for
the same time period is 649 billion barrels.
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USGS Estimates to 2025
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Top 18 Giant Fields
We have allocated 507 out of the estimated 47500
oilfields in the world to be giant oilfields. The
URR numbers from open published data in different
magazines varies and adding the URR of the 507
giant oil fields we get a number between 1550 and
1150Gb. Thus, if using 2250Gb as a global value
of URR, the giant fields represent about 65 per
cent of the global URR Numbers for the top 18
giant fields are given in the table.
Source AAPG, OGJ, EIA
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The Important Parameter Giant Fields

• Giant fields compared to other fields with
  respect to

• Number of fields

• URR

• Daily Production

Källa AAPG, OGJ, Simmons Company International
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Global Giant Oilfields
F.Robelius, Uppsala Hydrocarbon Depletions Study
Group
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The Elephant Oil End Game
Cantarell is speaking with Ghawar, Greater Burgan
and Safaniya waiting
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Cantarell is declining
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Giant fields

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Production of oil The Uppsala GES Giant
Oilfield Model

• The production of oil can be divided into the
  following fractions
• Giant oil fields long term
• Smaller oil fields long term
• Heavy oil long term
• New fields developments medium term
• Deep water medium term
• Natural gas liquids long term
• Thesis by Fredrik Robelius Giant Oil Fields
  Highway to oil, http//www.peakoil.net/GiantOilFie
  lds.html.

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Oil from oil sand i Canada, (Energy Policy)
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Jack 2 Kebnekaise and Mount Everest
8.848 meter
2.100 meter
8.588 meter
Jack 2
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Giant High Case
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The Worst and Best Oil End Games
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Fields needed for the best case oil end game
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Data Support a Worst Case Oil End Game
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Exports and in 2030
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Decline in existing fieldsExxonMobil

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Data Support a Worst Case Oil End Game
Production from existing oilfields decline with
3 million barrels per day in one year. In 4,5
years the production from existing oilfields will
be 71 million barrels per day. We must find new
oilfields and put them in production. A
production of 3 million barrels per day is 1,1
billion barrels per year and to be able to
produce this oil a reserve of 27 billion barrels
is needed. A plateau production will need this
level of new reserves every year.
2012
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Politisk drivkraft Nr1 The Planet
Värme ut
Värme in
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Koldioxid och fossila bränslen
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IPPCs scenarier för utsläpp av CO2
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Framtidens temperaturökning enligt IPCC
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Var finns de fossila reserverna?
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Comparison Oil
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Peak Gas? - Annual Global Gas Discoveries
A peak in discoveries must give a peak in
production!
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Comparison Gas
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Coal production forecast
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Comparison Coal
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Cumulative Fossil Usage A2
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Download www.internationaltransportforum.org/jtrc
/index.html, or www.tsl.uu.se/uhdsg
My conclusion is that the IPCC emission
scenarios are absolutely unrealistic about the
time frame 2020 to 2100 and these alternative
futures should not be given credence any
longer.
The world must build a thick crash mat to
cushion the downfall passing Peak Oil
The author of these reports
Kjell Aleklett, professor
Uppsala University, Global
Energy Systems
Box 535, SE-751 21 Uppsala,
Sweden Phone [phone]
kjell.aleklett_at_fysast.uu.s
e www.fysast.uu.se/ges
Kjell Aleklett is also President of ASPO,
The Association for the Study of Peak
OilGas, www.peakoil.net
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Global Energy Systems
Web page www.fysast.uu.se/ges Aleklett blog
aleklett.wordpress.com ASPO www.peakoil.net