One NOAA Approach for Developing Ecological Forecasting Services

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One NOAA Approach for Developing Ecological
Forecasting Services

• IOOS-MAST Workshop
• Dr. Marie Colton
• Technical Director
• NOAAs Ocean Service
• 22 Jul 08

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• NOAA background
• Ecological Forecasts - Why Now?
• NOS efforts in forecasting
• Lessons learned along the way
• Fostering development within NOAA
• Future
• Summary

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• NOAAs Vision An informed society that uses a
  comprehensive understanding of the role of the
  oceans, coasts, and atmosphere in the global
  ecosystem to make the best social and economic
  decisions
• NOAAs Mission To understand and predict changes
  in the Earths environment and conserve and
  manage coastal and marine resources to meet our
  Nation's economic, social, and environmental
  needs

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Weather Forecasting

• History dating back to the beginning of the
  weather service
• Weather and severe storm forecasts are the most
  mature

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Coastal Forecasting

• Coastal forecasting is a key focus area for NOS
• Necessary for NOS to carry out many of its
  mandates
• Navigation, response and restoration, and
  resource management

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Fisheries Forecasting

• Fisheries and living resources management are
  also key focus areas
• Requires both physical and biological interactions

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National and Regional Ecosystem Challenges

• Great Lakes
• Toxic pollution
• Restoration of Great Lakes Areas of Concern

• Alaska
• Impacts of sea ice reduction dependent living
  marine resources
• Tribal access for subsistence uses
• Management of marine mammals cooperatively with
  Alaskan native
• Stellar Sea Lion recovery

• Northeast
• Overfished groundfish stocks, fishing gear
  impacts, and bycatch
• Right Whale ship strikes and entanglements
• Urban runoff

• California Current
• Fishing gear impacts and by catch
• Pacific salmon recovery
• Impaired water quality in watersheds and salmon
  habitat loss
• Public access
• Increased pinniped and human interactions

• Southeast
• Addressed sea turtle bycatch by recovery actions
  and take reduction plans for Kemps ridley
  turtles and Humpback Whales. Both populations
  now stabilizing or increasing
• Protected large tracts of habitat for fish and
  wildlife through CELC Program, including a
  10,700-acre parcel in South Carolina
• Engaged stakeholder community and other agencies
  to delineate regional ecosystem boundaries and
  enhance strategy to implement ecosystem approaches

• Pacific Islands
• Marine Debris
• Bycatch and entanglement of sea turtles and
  seabirds
• Conservation of Monk Seals and humpback Whales
• Coral Bleaching

• Gulf of Mexico
• Hurricane Recovery
• Sea turtle by catch in trawl and long line
  fisheries
• Bycatch in the red snapper and shrimp fisheries
• Inadequate sewage capacity
• Pollution related marine mammal strandings
• Offshore oil and gas production

• Caribbean
• Coral bleaching and disease
• Recovery of coral species
• Urban Runoff
• Sea turtle recovery
• Growth of tourism industry placing demands on
  limited resources

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Challenge of Managing Ecosystems lies at
the Heart of the Policy Trilemma in Government
POLLUTION (impact on resources)
POLICY
POPULATION (demand on resources)
PROSPERITY (quality of life)
From EPRI
Excellent science with sound integration, well
managed
Adapted by Dr. Ione Taylor, USGS Chief
Scientist, Eastern Region
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Long-Term Incentive Re-engineering National
Forecasting Capabilities for future Earth Systems
Forecasts
Wx/Climo
Water
GeoChem
Living Resources
Physical/numerical/statistical Modeling
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Forecasting for Resource Management

• NOAA is a mission/service agency and achievement
  of many mandates need ecological forecasts
• Policy and scientific literature point to this as
  a high priority need

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Connects Science and Management

• Provides a mechanism to focus research efforts
  and to translate science into management
  application
• Move from being reactive to proactive

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• NOAA background
• Ecological Forecasts - Why Now?
• NOS efforts in forecasting
• Lessons learned along the way
• Fostering development within NOAA
• Future
• Summary

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Goal Ecological Forecasting System

• Operational, multi-purposed ecological forecast
  models designed to
• Forecast and assess the impacts of environmental
  stressors on ecosystems
• And predict the evolution of ecosystems for
  ecological and resource management applications
• seamless suite of products based on user
  priorities and the degree to which their various
  needs are being met

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Notional Seamless Suite of Ecosystem Products and
Services
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Suggested Prioritization Factors

• Mandate Legislation, Executive Orders
• User Pull Critical for long-term funding
• Purview NOAA and Inter-agency Strategic Plans,
  Research Plans, Ocean Research Priority Plan,
  Committee on Ocean Policy report, etc
• Leadership Identified by span of control
• Cost / Benefits ratio Developing and leveraging
  internal and external partnerships and resources
• Investment Level of effort needed for
  development
• Time Frame Time needed for reliable product

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Sea Level Rise
Purpose provide ecosystem-scale forecasts that
include the ecological consequences of
alternative management strategies
Hydrodynamic Module
Landscape Change Module
Morphological Module
Biological Module
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Tactical Event Response

• NOS responded to over 2000 hazard events over 20
  years
• Anywhere in the worlds ocean
• Any time of day
• With 2 hours notice
• Predict transport, fate, effects

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NOAA Transition PolicyConcept of Operations
Application
Research
Products and Services
Phenomena of Interest
Observing Systems
ENSO Update
Time
Time
HAB Bulletin
Giant Bluefin Tuna
Space
Space
Operational Ocean and Coastal Forecast
Guidance NOS, NWS Ops
Observations OSSE IOOS, NESDIS, OAR, JCSDA
Data Assimilation OSE NESDIS, NWS, OAR, JCSDA
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Harmful Algal Bloom Forecasting System
Management Need

• Outreach
• - Needs assessment
• - User meetings
• Technical assistance
• Operational email address and phone number

SeaWiFS (provided by CoastWatch)
Field data
Buoy data
Model output
State and Local Constituents

• - Chlorophyll a algorithms
• - Chlorophyll anomaly
• Rs 670 for removing
• sedimentary backscatter

• Data ingestion and
• integration
• - Synthesis
• Analysis
• Accuracy assessment

Coordination - Stakeholder Communication -
Quality assurance - Product validation

• Validation data
• respiratory irritation

Data/product Distribution
Applications

• Weekly bulletin by
• subscription
• on-line mapping service
• Web based public health advisories
• User guides
• Customer support

• - Decision support
• - Sampling design
• Human health
• event response
• ecological modeling

Demonstration
User evaluation
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Findings

• Terminology forecasts vs predictions, nowcasts,
  scenarios
• Infrastructure who runs, NOAA, outside,
  centers, data needs
• Personnel need ecological forecasters and
  integrators
• Funding need dedicated source for transition,
  long-term funding
• Policy how good is good enough
• Jurisdictional and liability - state vs gov
• Decision support tools how to present, analyze,
  accept model derived data
• Science needs

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Challenges

• Making system versatile enough to encompass
  several types of forecasts while specific enough
  to make those forecasts useful to users in that
  region
• Developing community-based models
• So many external efforts time to research and
  figure out how you might fit in/adapt to these
  versus just doing your own.
• Integrating process and statistical models
• Scalable models

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Ecological Forecasting Design Elements

• Built on existing resources
• NOAA-wide White Paper underway climate,
  synoptic, real-time
• NOAA wide collaboration of regional efforts and
  major program interactions
• Roles of IOOS regional associations
• Interagency Working Groups
• Based on common modeling hydrodynamic backbone
  (synergy between ecosystem and hydrodynamic
  forecasting efforts)
• Navy / NOAA MOA
• NOS/NWS HYCOM, ROMS, ADCIRC, WWIII, GNOME
• NMFS Fisheries Science Centers

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Ecological Forecasting Design Elements

• Informed by lessons learned from past forecasting
• WRF, multi-model ensembles, nesting, coupling,
  model evaluation, shared development
  environments, test beds
• Data availability, accessibility, and standards,
  data assimilation, targeted obs
• OSE/OSSEs skill scores, verification and
  validation
• Fully incorporate NOAA users, partners, and
  stakeholders
• Ecological forecasting town halls

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Ecological Forecasting Design Elements

• Social Sciences
• Decision support tools designed at same time
• Social engineering of complex community for
  national products (community frameworks,
  Wikinomics?)
• Centralized and regional forecasting centers
• Architectures
• Cyber infrastructure
• Personnel and expertise

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All the building blocks are in place

• Understanding and technology have matured to a
  level allowing applications and operations for
  ecological forecasting

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NOAA Ecosystem Mission Goal

• Protect, Restore, and Manage the Use of Coastal
  and Ocean Resources Through an Ecosystem Approach
  to Management
• Programs
• Aquaculture
• Coastal and Marine Resources
• Corals
• Ecosystem Observations
• Ecosystem Research
• Enforcement
• Fisheries Management
• Habitat
• Protected Species