Diapositiva 1

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The impact of climate change today and on the
world of tomorrow Dr. Raffaele SalernoHead of
Research, Development and Production Epson Meteo
Centre
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Epson Meteo Centre

• A private independent applied meteo research
  organisation, established in 1995
• Weather forecasting and seasonal outlooks
• Internal HPCF(1 Teraflop)
• Numerous modelling applications including climate
  predictions
• International research projects and collaboration
  
• Application of weather research to industry,
  agriculture, communications, transportation,
  energy and oil companies, as well as media
  (newspapers, radio, television, web)

High Performance Computing Facility
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Climate change is now!

• Weather records of 2005
• One of the warmest years on historical record
  0.62 C above the 1880 - 2004 mean temperature
  0.53 C above the 1961-1990 mean temperature
  almost same as in 1998, but without El Nino
• Second highest in the Northern Hemisphere, sixth
  in Southern Europe in terms of surface
  temperature
• Regionally the highest temperature in Australia
  and the highest average temperature recorded in
  Canada and Siberia
• Global carbon dioxide concentration rose 2 ppm,
  slightly above the 1.6 ppm/year observed since
  1980
• Cost global economic losses of 200 billion
  dollars (125 billion Katrina previous record
  175 billion in 1995)

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Laika Glacier in 2005, compared to 1971
Coast line
Google-Earth, 2005
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ARCTICCoburg Island and Pond Inlet, CA
Signs of climatic change glaciers and mountains
next picture
1975
2005
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Climate change recent developments

• Prediction of the warming of the upper
  troposphere by better-mixed greenhouse gases as
  at the end of this century.
• Recent evidence of anomalous temperatures in the
  upper troposphere have been observed from
  December 2007 to January 2008 in South America

(NB NEW results not yet published)
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Climate prediction based on past climate

• The past behaviour of Earths climate provides
  powerful insight into what may happen in the
  future
• Example A cold period, known as Little Ice Age
  occurred between 1300 and 1850. This period was
  characterised by severe winters and shifting
  climate regimes

A frozen canal in the Netherlands in a painting
by P. Breughel is evidence of the Little Ice Age
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Emission scenarios
Future anthropogenic CO2 emissions will be the
product of different drivers such as demographic
development, socioeconomic development, and
technological changes.
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Temperature scenarios
Without any significant mitigation action,
temperature will rise 2C by 2050 and this is not
the worst scenario
Stabilising at 445490 ppm CO2-equivalent) could
limit global mean temperature increases to 2C
above the pre-industrial level
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Climate prediction

• Maximum surface temperature

Spring
Winter
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Climate prediction

• Maximum surface temperature

Summer
Autumn
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Climate prediction
Precipitation may be the best indication of
climate change. This is the global precipitation
in mm/yr which shows a tendency increase after
2015
Distribution of Autumn precipitations as for the
end of century
Autumn
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Impacts

• Climate change has direct effects on physical and
  biological systems on all continents and in most
  oceans
• Effects on humans
• excessive mortality in Europe
• evidence of changes in the distribution of some
  human disease vectors in parts of Europe, Africa,
  Asia
• earlier onset and increase in the seasonal
  production of allergenic pollen in mid and high
  latitudes of the Northern Hemisphere

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Impacts

• On 10 summits in the Bernina region, Swiss Alps
• Universities of Zürich and Hannover, October 2005

3262 m
2959 m
Ca. 1930
1980 2005
2050

• More then a doubling of the number of species
  over the last 75 years
• A further doubling from the present day to the
  year 2050
• - Acceleration of the increasing number of species

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Impacts

• Socioeconomic impacts
• migrations due to sea rise
• tourism
• agriculture
• freshwater availability
• increasing costs due to modification to
  biological system and human health impact

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Impacts

• Flooding, land loss, salinisation of groundwater
  and the destruction of buildings and
  infrastructures
• gt1500 million people will be exposed to increased
  water resource stress by the year 2050
• gt2 millions km2 of land will experience
  vegetation dieback
• gt10 million people will be flooded in coastal
  areas

Artic ice and snow cover evolution in July, from
present day to 2050 Darker colours mean greater
depths, light red colour means thinner layers,
white means no ice or snow
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Impacts
South Engadine, Switzerland
Heavy precipitation hit the Northen Swiss
Alps, 21-23 August 2005.

• During the multisecular event
• rain fell up to 3400 m and caused
• a lot of debris in the mountains, due to
• glacial retreat
• ice exposure
• retreating permafrost

Brienz, Bern Region, Switzerland
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Vulnerability reduction

• Specific policies and programmes
• Individual initiatives
• Participatory planning processes and other
  community approaches
• Promotion of environmental quality
• Transforming current practices for environmental
  resources into sustainable management practices

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Mitigation

• We need negative net emissions towards the end of
  this century
• Mitigation efforts over the next two or three
  decades will have a major impact on opportunities
  to achieve lower stabilisation levels.
• Emissions are required to decline before 2015 and
  further reduced to less than 50 of todays
  emissions by 2050
• Multi-gas emissions reduction scenarios are
  needed (able to meet climate targets at
  substantially lower costs compared to a CO2-only
  strategy).

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Remarks

•  Greenhouse Gas Reduction required
• Carbon Dioxide 60
• Methane 20
• Nitrous Oxide 80
• However, a 60 cut in carbon dioxide emissions,
  either now or over the next few years, will be
  almost impossible to achieve.
• Even the most optimistic IPCC emissions scenario
  foresees a rise in carbon emissions by 2025, with
  only a gradual decline by the year 2100

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Conclusions

• If climate model projections prove to be even
  moderately accurate, global temperatures by the
  end of this century will be higher than at any
  time during the last 120,000 years.
• Failure to introduce some form of global
  greenhouse gas emission reduction strategy will
  merely extend the timeframe of global warming
  that humanity is already witnessing, with very
  serious consequences for ecosystems and mankind,
  including risks of unsustainable social and
  economic costs which can lead to unpredictable
  direct consequences in many parts of our planet.

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Thank you for listening