Quantitative evaluation of regional precipitation forecasts for Belgium using multidimensional remot

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Quantitative evaluation of regional precipitation
forecasts for Belgium using multi-dimensional
remote sensing observations (QUEST-B) Nicole van
Lipziga, Tim Böhmea, Kwinten van Weverberga,
Laurent Delobbeb a Physical and regional
geography group, Katholieke Universiteit Leuven,
Belgium b Royal Meteorological Institute of
Belgium (RMI)
Kick-Off meeting PQP Bonn 10 / 11 April 2008
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Introduction Phase I
Phase II
Summary
QUEST vs. QUEST-B ? Quantitative
evaluation of regional precipitation forecasts
with a mesoscale model (COSMO) Focus
Germany ? Belgium ? Commun goal
Identification of processes responsible for
deficiencies in quantitative precipitation
forecast
QUEST, QUEST-B ? Using multi-dimensional remote
sensing observations Radar data
QUEST, QUEST-B Satellite data
QUEST, QUEST-B Microwave data
QUEST Ceilometer data QUEST
GPS data QUEST, QUEST-B
Kick-Off meeting PQP Bonn 10 / 11 April 2008
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Introduction Phase I
Phase II
Summary
QUEST Belgien - Region of interest
General Observation Period (GOP) Entire year 2007
COPS Region Summer 2007
QUEST-Belgien Area
Mesoscale Alpine Programme (MAP) Forecast
Demonstration Project (FDP) region
Kick-Off meeting PQP Bonn 10 / 11 April 2008
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Introduction Phase I
Phase II
Summary

• Phase I Model evaluation
• Comparison to observations and
• to output of other models
• Phase II Compilation of precipitation
  distribution for two contrasting summer seasons
• Improve understanding of causes for these
• differences in precipitation characteristics
• Input for soil erosion models and crop models
  input
• for soil erosion models and crop models

Kick-Off meeting PQP Bonn 10 / 11 April 2008
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Introduction Phase I
Phase II
Summary
Comparison to observations

• C-band Doppler Radar (f 5.6 GHz, ? 5.4 cm)
• - Scans at 10 elevation angles each 15
  minutes
• (0.5 17.5)
• - Horizontal resolution is 500 m in range and
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• in azimuth
• European network
• - Actual 2 radars in Belgium
• ? Satellite data (MSG, MODIS, CLOUDSAT)
• GPS data
• Synoptical weather stations

Kick-Off meeting PQP Bonn 10 / 11 April 2008
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Introduction Phase I
Phase II
Summary
Kick-Off-Treffen PQP Bonn 10 / 11 April 2008
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Introduction Phase I
Phase II
Summary
Radar of Wideumont (RMI, Ardennes)

• C-band Doppler Radar
• Gematronik
• Tower 46 m
• Antenna height 592 m
• Antenna diameter 4.2 m
• Measurements range
• 240 km for reflectivity
• 120 km for velocity

Kick-Off meeting PQP Bonn 10 / 11 April 2008
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Introduction Phase I
Phase II
Summary
Radar of Zaventem (BELGOCONTROL, Brussels)

• C-band Doppler Radar
• Radtec / Sigmet
• Antenna diameter 4.2 m
• Measurements range
• 240 km for reflectivity
• 120 km for velocity

Kick-Off meeting PQP Bonn 10 / 11 April 2008
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Introduction Phase I
Phase II
Summary
250 rain gauge stations in Belgium
Kick-Off meeting PQP Bonn 10 / 11 April 2008
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Introduction Phase I
Phase II
Summary

• Atmospheric models
• COSMO-DE model (LMK)
• ?x 2.8 km
• Comparison to (case studies)
• ALARO used for operational weather forecasting
• in Belgium
• ? basing on French AROME modeling system
• ?x 7 km resp. ?x 4 km
• ARPS (Advanced Regional Prediction System)
• ?x 3 km

Kick-Off meeting PQP Bonn 10 / 11 April 2008
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Introduction Phase I
Phase II
Summary
Case studies (but also long term evaluation!)
Dynamically driven convective case 01/10/2006
Thermodynamically driven convective
case 28/07/2006
Stratiform precipitation case 23/11/2006
Kick-Off meeting PQP Bonn 10 / 11 April 2008
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Introduction Phase I
Phase II
Summary

• Compilation of precipitation characteristics
  for two contrasting summer seasons
• ? Precipitation patterns / distribution in
  Belgium
• ? Interdisciplinary exchange
• Example
• - Input for soil erosion models

Kick-Off meeting PQP Bonn 10 / 11 April 2008
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Introduction Phase I
Phase II
Summary
Soil erosion in Flanders (Belgium) (Verstraeten
et al., 2003)
Orography of Belgium
Kick-Off meeting PQP Bonn 10 / 11 April 2008
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Introduction Phase I
Phase II
Summary
Amount of precipitation is important for soil
erosion
Verstraeten and Poesen, 2006
Rain erosivity for a rain event
Time series for the Belgian station Ukkel
Kick-Off meeting PQP Bonn 10 / 11 April 2008
P (mm) per rain event
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Introduction Phase I
Phase II
Summary

• Summary
• Evaluation of quantitative precipitation
  forecast for Belgium
• using COSMO model
• Comparison of COSMO model results with results
  of
• two other atmospheric modeling systems
  (ALADIN, ARPS)
• in case studies
• Long-term evaluation (observations) in 2
  contrasting
• summer seasons
• Characteristics of precipition in Belgium
• Interaction between different disciplines
• (meteorology, geography, agriculture) with
  respect to
• atmospheric branch of hydrological cycle

Kick-Off meeting PQP Bonn 10 / 11 April 2008
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Vielen Dank !!
Kick-Off meeting PQP Bonn 10 / 11 April 2008