Embracing Global Change: Crisis or campaign issue

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Embracing Global ChangeCrisis or campaign
issue?

• Bill Locke, MSU Earth Sciences
• (with apologies to Cathy Whitlock, Lisa
  Graumlich, Kathy Hansen, Dan Fagre, Greg
  Pederson!)

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A Convenient Truth

• "Out of 925 recent articles in peer-review
  scientific journals about global warming, there
  was no disagreement. Zero." Al Gore, An
  Inconvenient Truth
• Is the problem merely a campaign issue, does the
  fate of the human race depend on it, or is the
  truth somewhere in the middle?
• If it is a campaign issue thats convenient!

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Outline

• Recent observations
• Historic observations
• Prehistoric observations
• Causes and effects
• Models and confidence
• Truths and consequences

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Recent Observations Formerly known as Glacier
National Park

• We know that climate is warm-ing

1938
1981
http//www.nrmsc.usgs.gov/research/glacier_retreat
.htm
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Recent observations high temperatures
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Historic observationsThe context of global
change

• Hunters in the Snow (1565) by the Flemish painter
  Pieter Bruegel the Elder (15251569)
• Hans Brinker of the Silver Skates
• Little Ice Age

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Historic and proxies

• Global average measure-ments
• Proxy data
• Taxes
• Paintings
• Pollen
• Tree rings

Mann et al. the hockey stick
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Prehistoric data Vostok core
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Spectra of observed cycles

• Plate tectonics

J. Murray Mitchell, 1965 ff

• Milankovitch

?

• Annual and daily dominate!

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Shorter cycles sunspots?
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If not cyclic, why not?

• Volcanic eruptions

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Natural causesWhat should the Holocene be
like?

• COHMAP model
• Warming summers
• Melting ice sheets
• Decreasing dust
• Warming oceans
• Rising CO2
• Maximum warmth around 8000 years ago
• Should be glacial now

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Human-caused effects

• True or false?

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The government plot
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Human contributionsWhat should the Holocene be
like?

• Ruddiman (2005 Scientific American and others)
• Trend changed8000 years ago(CO2) and
• 5000 years ago(CH4)
• Effects of humanactivity

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Methane

• Petroleum production
• Rice cultivation
• Feedlots
• Landfills

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The Greenhouse Effect
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CausationAtmospheric forcings

• Greenhouse effects

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Changes in atmospheric chemistry
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Black carbon sources
Ref Novakov, Ramanathan, Hansen, .. Sathaye,
GRL, 2002
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Climate Modeling(Ants Leetsma, NOAA, 2003)

• More complex than we know but is it more
  complex than we can know?

after IPCC
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Do models really work?

• Verification (globally/latitudinally averaged)

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Cross-model verification
http//www.climatescience.gov/Library/workshop2002
/breakout-7/breakout7-wojick-LIA_vs_models.gif
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The futureStochastic outcomes

• Warming is inescapable
• Magnitude and effects are uncertain

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State of the RockiesColorado College (2006)

• Synthesis for the Rockies
• Observed historic change
• Projected future change

Gregory Zimmerman, Caitlin OBrady, and Bryan
Hurlbutt
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TemperatureScenarios

• Models dont address likelihood of scenarios!

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PrecipitationScenarios

• Little precipitation change

• Significant snowpack reduction

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SkiAreas
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Forestfires

• More frequent
• More intense
• Until fuels are gone

A. L. Westerling, H. G. Hidalgo, D. R. Cayan, T.
W. Swetnam www.sciencexpress.org / 6 July 2006 /
Page 5/ 10.1126/science.1128834
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Localvulnerability

• Greater Ystone
• Idaho Glacier
• Sierra Nevada

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Deterministic outcomesSea level change
Courtesy NASA Earth Observatory
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Linear models of sea level rise
Nonlinear(feedback)effects?
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Plausiblescenarios

• (May 06 Vanity Fair)
• 3m
• Marthas Vineyard
• District of Columbia
• Frisco Bay

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Plausiblescenarios

• The Hamptons
• 3 m sea level rise
• Category 3 storm

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N. Atlantichurricanefrequency

• Cyclical
• 5 yr
• 40 yr?
• Unusual!

Munich Re 2006
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New York City minus an ice sheet
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The distant futureThe ocean sink

• Most fossil fuel CO2 is not in the atmosphere

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What does the future hold?
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Is there a crisis?

• YES!
• Changes will exceed all observed values
• Temperature
• Precipitation
• Sea level
• Marine acidity
• Adapt or die!

• No
• Little can be done
• Benefits as well as costs
• Canada, Russia
• Humans are adaptable
• Dandelions, rats, mosquitoes
• Change is short-term
• 100 years

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From An Inconvenient Truth

• We are entering a period of consequences.
  (Winston Churchill)
• Global change is not so much a political as a
  moral issue Scientific, economic?
• If we can address the ozone hole, why not CO2?
  Single manufacturer, replaceable

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From National Geographic 8/06

• Chance of dying from hot weather (U.S.)
  113,729 versus
• Bicycling 14,919
• Lightning 179,746
• 80 of American homes are air-conditioned (1/6th
  of electricity)
• Environmentalisms method of handling global
  warming is flawed. (McKibben, p. 36)

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From National Geographic 8/06

• Hurricane Katrina
• Yes, New Orleans will bounce back. (p. 55)
• Let us not worry, there will always be a New
  Orleans. But will it be my New Orleans?
• Because of new building regulations larger
  lots, higher elevations many people cant
  afford to rebuild.

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From National Geographic 8/06

• Super storms no end in sight
• The solutionis to improve forecasting through
  better science. Thats the only way to get
  people to trust the warnings. S. Majumdar,
  hurricane researcher
• Cat. 4 hurricanes have increased from 4/yr to
  7/yr since 1970 but before that, decreased
  since 1940
• Of an Atlantic anomaly of 0.92C
• 0.45C global warming,
• 0.20 C El Nino, 0.10C AtlM-DOsc,
• Remainder weather

Trenberth Shea, GRL
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From the Proceedings of the National Academy of
Sciences

• Even if all the U.S. corn and soybean crops
  became biofuels, they would still satisfy only
  12 of the countrys gasoline demand and 6 of
  its diesel demand.

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Lighting the Key to Energy Savingfrom BBC News
Online (6/29/06)

• A global switch to efficient lighting systems
  would trim the world's electricity bill by nearly
  one-tenth.
• That is the conclusion of a study from the
  International Energy Agency (IEA), which it says
  is the first global survey of lighting uses and
  costs.
• The carbon dioxide emissions saved by such a
  switch would, it concludes, dwarf cuts so far
  achieved by adopting wind and solar power.

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From Men in Black

• Jay Why the big secret? People are smart, they
  can handle it. Kay A person is smart. People
  are dumb, panicky, dangerous animals and you know
  it.

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Human effects on climateRuddiman, 2005

• From a geological perspective it will all be over
  soon!