THE OECD SCHOOLING FOR TOMORROW SfT PROJECT

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• THE OECD SCHOOLING FOR TOMORROW (SfT) PROJECT
• Approaches to Futures Thinking
• to Enhance Strategy and Leadership
• ETSA (European Teacher Student Association)
• Feasibility Study Conference
• Lublin, Poland - August 27th 2005
• Francisco Benavides

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Why the Need for Futures Thinking in Education?

• Education decision-making increasingly complex
  the need for new approaches
• Decision-making predominantly short-term despite
  education and learning being fundamental to
  long-term futures
• But prediction/forecasting is notoriously
  inaccurate
• The CERI GB underline need to compile existing
  tools and develop new ones for long-term thinking
  in policy and practice

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The promise of futures thinking for leadership
and policy - Why do it?

• It can
• Create channels of dialogue and reflection in
  contribution to participatory governance
• Build vision, leadership and innovation capacity
  at all levels
• Enhance strategic policy formulation and
  implementation

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Which Way Forward? What will Shape Future
Schooling?

• Certain heavy trends often acknowledged e.g.
• Ageing populations
• Knowledge societies
• Growing ubiquity of ICT in home, work etc.
• Even with the familiar heavy trends there are
  big questions
• what will they mean for schooling? Radical change
  or just new challenges?
• Willingly embraced or forced adaptation?

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Some Drivers in the Geo-political and
International Environment

• Globalisation, growing international inequalities
  and migration
• impact of intensifying diversity of student
  populations and values?
• Changing governance declining central planning
  powers, more stakeholders, complex
  decision-making
• coherent educational reform? Chaos? Markets? but
• growing role of the trans/supra-national
  (Internet, EU/PISA, multi-nationals)
• breaching the last bastion of national
  sovereignty (schooling)?

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The Cultural and Values Environment

• Individualism
• personalisation or fragmentation?
• New forms of social capital
• flexible networks for informal learning?, stark
  inequalities and isolation?
• Secular society or religious radicalism
• a clear role for teachers and the school?

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Factors Closer to Education Itself

• The graduate labour market what prospects for
  teacher recruitment
• (women/men ratio, shortage, international teacher
  labour market, minorities?...)
• New forms of competence recognition - customised,
  international, employer-driven- schools become
  irrelevant or liberated to focus on teaching?

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What might this add up to?The OECD schooling
scenarios

• 1. ATTEMPTING TO MAINTAIN THE STATUS QUO
• Bureaucratic School Systems Continue Scenario
• 2. DIVERSE, DYNAMIC SCHOOLS AFTER ROOT-AND-BRANCH
  REFORM (Re-schooling)
• "Schools as Focused Learning Organisations
  Scenario
• "Schools as Core Social Centres Scenario
• 3. PURSUIT OF ALTERNATIVES TO SCHOOLS - SYSTEMS
  DISBAND OR DISINTEGRATE (De-schooling)
• Radical Extension of the Market Model Scenario
• "Learning Networks and the Network Society"
  Scenario
• Teacher Exodus and System Meltdown Scenario

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The OECD Schooling Scenarios

• 1. ATTEMPTING TO MAINTAIN THE STATUS QUO
• Bureaucratic School Systems Continue Scenario

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Bureaucratic School Systems Continue Scenario
EMPLOYERS ORGANISATIONS, UNIONS
TERTIARY EDUCATION
CULTURAL / RELIGIOUS GROUPS
SCHOOL
PARENTS
TEACHER
TEACHER
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The teaching profession

• Continuation of a distinct teacher corps
• sometimes with civil service status
• relatively strong unions and associations
• intended to protect and promote teacher
  interests,
• (teachers fears about change reinforcing this
  scenario)
• Yet, professional status and rewards
• are problematic in many countries
• many teachers perceiving a loss of status
• Important ambiguities
• High-level professional status vs.
• the image of teacher as worker.
• The single teacher root of their individual
  autonomy vs.
• obstacle new forms of collective
  organisation of teaching and learning

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The OECD Schooling Scenarios

• 2. DIVERSE, DYNAMIC SCHOOLS AFTER ROOT-AND-BRANCH
  REFORM (Re-schooling)
• "Schools as Focused Learning Organisations
  Scenario
• "Schools as Core Social Centres Scenario

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"Schools as Focused Learning Organisations
Scenario
SCHOOL
SCHOOL
SCHOOL
LEARNER
INTERNATIONAL AGENCIES
TEACHER
PARENTS
LEARNING CONSULTANT
CULTURAL / RELIGIOUS GROUPS
TERTIARY EDUCATION
TEACHER PROFESSION, TRAINING
LEARNING COMPANIES
MEDIA / IT
EMPLOYERS ORGANISATIONS, UNIONS
ENTERPRISES
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The teaching profession

• Highly motivated
• Favourable working conditions
• High levels of RD
• professional development
• group activities, networking
• mobility in and out of teaching
• a high status profession with generous staffing
  levels
• substantial degree of flexibility (in/out) and
  diversity of teacher careers

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"Schools as Core Social Centres Scenario
COMMUNITY
COMMUNITY
SCHOOL
SCHOOL
CULTURAL / RELIGIOUS GROUPS
TERTIARY EDUCATION
LEARNER
TERTIARY EDUCATION
INTERNATIONAL AGENCIES
TEACHER
ENTERPRISES
LEARNING CONSULTANT
CULTURAL / RELIGIOUS GROUPS
PARENTS
TEACHER PROFESSION, TRAINING
LEARNING COMPANIES
MEDIA / IT
EMPLOYERS ORGANISATIONS, UNIONS
ENTERPRISES
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The teaching profession

• A core of high-status teaching professionals
• with varied arrangements and conditions
• but good rewards for all
• Many others around the core
• other professionals, community players, parents,
  organisations
• Leadership more widely distributed and collective

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The OECD Schooling Scenarios

• 3. PURSUIT OF ALTERNATIVES TO SCHOOLS - SYSTEMS
  DISBAND OR DISINTEGRATE (De-schooling)
• Radical Extension of the Market Model Scenario
• "Learning Networks and the Network Society"
  Scenario
• Teacher Exodus and System Meltdown Scenario

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Radical Extension of the Market Model Scenario
TERTIARY EDUCATION
TEACHER DEVT CERT
LEARNING COMPANIES / CONSULTANT
SCHOOL
G O V E R N M E N T
INTERNATIONAL AGENCIES
SCHOOL
CULTURAL / RELIGIOUS GROUPS
FUNDING AGENCY
INDEPENDANT LEARNING CONSULTANT
ENTERPRISES
PRIVATE LEARNING COMPANIES
MEDIA / IT
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Market Model Government Inequality?
TERTIARY EDUCATION
TEACHER DEVT CERT
LEARNING COMPANIES / CONSULTANT
SCHOOL
G O V E R N M E N T
INTERNATIONAL AGENCIES
SCHOOL
CULTURAL / RELIGIOUS GROUPS
FUNDING AGENCY
INDEPENDANT LEARNING CONSULTANT
ENTERPRISES
PRIVATE LEARNING COMPANIES
MEDIA / IT
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The teaching profession

• New learning professionals are created
• public, private full-time, part-time
• Flourishing training arrangements and
  accreditation spring up
• great deal of innovation but
• clear risks in teacher quality and variations
• Teacher careers would match the diversity of the
  market itself
• and indeed no longer a clear notion of a teacher
  career at all.
• Increasing development of the international
  teacher market

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Learning Networks and the Network Society
Scenario
TERTIARY EDUCATION
INTERNATIONAL AGENCIES
G O V E R N M E N T
LEARNER
PARENTS
LEARNER
PARENTS
LEARNER
LEARNER
LEARNER
LEARNER
CULTURAL / RELIGIOUS GROUPS
LEARNER
PARENTS
MEDIA / IT
LEARNER
LEARNER
EMPLOYERS ORGANISATIONS, UNIONS
ENTERPRISES
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The teaching profession

• Specific professionals called "teachers"
  disappear
• Demarcations - between teacher and student,
  parent and teacher, education and community -
  blur and break down.
• New learning professionals emerge.
• Media and ICT companies become active in the
  learning networks
• operating help-line home visits.

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Bureaucratic School Systems Continue Scenario
Teacher Exodus and System Meltdown Scenario
EMPLOYERS ORGANISATIONS, UNIONS
TERTIARY EDUCATION
CULTURAL / RELIGIOUS GROUPS
SCHOOL
PARENTS
TEACHER
TEACHER
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The teaching profession

• In the beginning of the crises
• In general rewards would increase in the drive to
  tackle shortages.
• Distinctiveness of the teacher corps and role of
  unions/associations increase but established
  arrangements and career structures would erode
• As the crisis gathers pace
• conditions of teaching worsen
• problems acute in the worst affected areas
• efforts to bring trained, especially retired,
  teachers back into schools have disappointing
  results

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The teaching profession

• As the teacher exodus takes hold and the scale of
  the meltdown crisis is recognised, very
  different outcomes
• At one extreme, a vicious circle of retrenchment
• Conflict, and decline sets in, exacerbating the
  inequalities and problems further
• At the other, radical innovation and change
• different stakeholders joining forces behind
  far-reaching emergency strategies
• More evolutionary responses could lie between the
  two extremes
• Substantial difference to the position of
  teachers.

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Perceptions about Scenario Desirability and
Probability

• Educators from SfT events overwhelmingly support
  re-schooling.
• But many believe systems still nearest to
  bureaucratic model, for some VERY close.
• In general educators reject de-schooling not
  just as undesirable but even as unlikely -
  especially market models.
• Perhaps too quickly is this an unhealthy
  preference for reassuring visions over
  uncomfortable possibilities?

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What are we doing now?SfT enters a Third Phase

• Phase One - analytical and methodological
  development building the scenarios, and
  parallel work on networks and innovation and on
  ICT.
• Phase Two - operational and analytical. The
  inner-core countries work on futures thinking
  in action.
• Phase Three - Building the Knowledge Base,
  Broadening Participation and Disseminating
  Results.

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SfT Lines of Development and Analysis

• Futures thinking in Action Building the
  knowledge base, broadening participation
• Understanding Demand, Personalisation of Learning
  publications/future conference
• Radical Innovations in Learning (the micro
  level - going beyond earlier studies on
  innovation, networks and ICT Mexico initiative)
  
• Further Analysis of Trends, Driving Forces,
  Scenarios with university futures and wider
  OECD analysis

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Schooling for Tomorrow questions

• Deep forces, new trends new scenarios?
• How to recongnize them? Incipients forces?
• Inspiring models
• Where to look for them? Esay to copy? Pertinent?
• New partners
• Teacher students
• But also, NGOs?, companies?, churches?
• How to get closer?