Policy Formulation on Carbon Sequestration in Canada: Interface Between Science and Policy

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Policy Formulation on Carbon Sequestration in
CanadaInterface Between Science and Policy

• Gord Miller
• Environmental Commissioner of Ontario
• Carbon Sequestration Policy Forum
• May 3, 2005

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Overview
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Overview

• the scope of the carbon sequestration issue in
  Canada

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Overview

• the scope of the carbon sequestration issue in
  Canada
• our current policy situation re carbon
  sequestration

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Overview

• the scope of the carbon sequestration issue in
  Canada
• our current policy situation re carbon
  sequestration
• problems getting science to influence policy
  development

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Overview

• the scope of the carbon sequestration issue in
  Canada
• our current policy situation re carbon
  sequestration
• problems getting science to influence policy
  development
• possible solutions

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Scoping Carbon Sequestration

• limiting discussion to ecological sinks and
  sources

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Scoping Carbon Sequestration

• limiting discussion to ecological sinks and
  sources
• three kinds of landscapes

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Scoping Carbon Sequestration

• limiting discussion to ecological sinks and
  sources
• three kinds of landscapes
• the vast northern boreal of softwoods and peat
  accumulations

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Scoping Carbon Sequestration

• limiting discussion to ecological sinks and
  sources
• three kinds of landscapes
• the vast northern boreal of softwoods and peat
  accumulations
• the managed industrial forest

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Scoping Carbon Sequestration

• limiting discussion to ecological sinks and
  sources
• three kinds of landscapes
• the vast northern boreal of softwoods and peat
  accumulations
• the managed industrial forest
• the private land countryside

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The Northern Boreal
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The Northern Boreal

• not currently industrially utilized but the
  pressure is there to do so

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The Northern Boreal

• not currently industrially utilized but the
  pressure is there to do so
• potentially a huge source of new carbon
• if extensive harvesting were to occur
• if climate change started a new fire regime
• if peatlands dried out and oxidized

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The Northern Boreal

• not currently industrially utilized but the
  pressure is there to do so
• potentially a huge source of new carbon
• if extensive harvesting were to occur
• if climate change started a new fire regime
• if peatlands dried out and oxidized
• presently no conservation policy

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The Managed Industrial Forest
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The Managed Industrial Forest

• Kyoto Protocol Article 3.3 - opt in by 2006

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The Managed Industrial Forest

• Kyoto Protocol Article 3.3 - opt in by 2006
• increase standing biomass
• modified cutting
• fire suppression
• pre-commercial thinning

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The Managed Industrial Forest

• Kyoto Protocol Article 3.3 - opt in by 2006
• increase standing biomass
• modified cutting
• fire suppression
• pre-commercial thinning
• requires carbon trading system which is absent

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The Managed Industrial Forest

• once in there are risks

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The Managed Industrial Forest

• once in there are risks
• massive unexpected pest infestations
• catastrophic fires
• climate change itself

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The Managed Industrial Forest

• once in there are risks
• massive unexpected pest infestations
• catastrophic fires
• climate change itself
• all these risks have already manifest themselves

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The Managed Industrial Forest

• once in there are risks
• massive unexpected pest infestations
• catastrophic fires
• climate change itself
• all these risks have already manifest themselves
• likely policy outcome

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The Managed Industrial Forest

• once in there are risks
• massive unexpected pest infestations
• catastrophic fires
• climate change itself
• all these risks have already manifest themselves
• likely policy outcome decision NOT to bring the
  managed forest into Kyoto or its successor
  agreements

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Private Land Countryside
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Private Land Countryside

• Kyoto Protocol Article 3.2 - mandatory reporting
  of AD

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Private Land Countryside

• Kyoto Protocol Article 3.2 - mandatory reporting
  of AD
• agriculture dominated landscapes with significant
  forest elements - often under urban development
  pressure

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Private Land Countryside

• Kyoto Protocol Article 3.2 - mandatory reporting
  of AD
• agriculture dominated landscapes with significant
  forest elements - often under urban development
  pressure
• high standing crop of biomass in forest stands -
  high rate of deforestation (including soil
  stripping) with very little afforestation

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Private Land Countryside
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Private Land Countryside

• policy regime dominated by agriculture
• property tax reduction for agriculture
• crop insurance, drainage subsidies, etc.
• production subsidies and price supports

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Private Land Countryside

• policy regime dominated by agriculture
• property tax reduction for agriculture
• crop insurance, drainage subsidies, etc.
• production subsidies and price supports
• no incentive to afforest marginal land, positive
  incentive to deforest

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Private Land Countryside

• policy regime dominated by agriculture
• property tax reduction for agriculture
• crop insurance, drainage subsidies, etc.
• production subsidies and price supports
• no incentive to afforest marginal land, positive
  incentive to deforest
• economic based policy structure tied to world the
  commodity trade

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Private Land Countryside
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Private Land Countryside

• there is some discussion of carbon sequestration
  by modifying cultivation and cropping - but no
  mechanisms

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Private Land Countryside

• there is some discussion of carbon sequestration
  by modifying cultivation and cropping - but no
  mechanisms
• land is captured by the agricultural policy
  mechanisms awaiting conversion to urban uses

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Private Land Countryside

• there is some discussion of carbon sequestration
  by modifying cultivation and cropping - but no
  mechanisms
• land is captured by the agricultural policy
  mechanisms awaiting conversion to urban uses
• recent greenbelt initiative freezes rural status
  without creating alternate economic mechanisms

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Our Policy Paralysis

• the initiative to sequester carbon is a
  science-led policy - most policies are
  economics-led or led by social need

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Our Policy Paralysis

• the initiative to sequester carbon is a
  science-led policy - most policies are
  economics-led or led by social need
• different institutions in play - turf wars

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Our Policy Paralysis

• the initiative to sequester carbon is a
  science-led policy - most policies are
  economics-led or led by social need
• different institutions in play - turf wars
• different time horizons

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Our Policy Paralysis

• the initiative to sequester carbon is a
  science-led policy - most policies are
  economics-led or led by social need
• different institutions in play - turf wars
• different time horizons
• different perspectives on uncertainty

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Our Policy Paralysis

• the initiative to sequester carbon is a
  science-led policy - most policies are
  economics-led or led by social need
• different institutions in play - turf wars
• different time horizons
• different perspectives on uncertainty
• questions re the independence of science

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Our Policy Paralysis

• the initiative to sequester carbon is a
  science-led policy - most policies are
  economics-led or led by social need
• different institutions in play - turf wars
• different time horizons
• different perspectives on uncertainty
• questions re the independence of science
• absence of boundary organizations

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Possible Solutions
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Possible Solutions

• establish a national carbon credit trading
  structure

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Possible Solutions

• establish a national carbon credit trading
  structure
• develop a private land carbon sequestration
  incentive policy structure parallel to the
  agriculture policy structure possibly linked to
  biodiversity conservation and based on payments
  for ecosystem services provided

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Possible Solutions

• establish a national carbon credit trading
  structure
• develop a private land carbon sequestration
  incentive policy structure parallel to the
  agriculture policy structure possibly linked to
  biodiversity conservation and based on payments
  for ecosystem services provided
• develop and cultivate boundary organizations

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In Summary
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In Summary

• the northern boreal is a new source risk

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In Summary

• the northern boreal is a new source risk
• the industrial forest will likely be out of the
  accounting system but may be a new source

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In Summary

• the northern boreal is a new source risk
• the industrial forest will likely be out of the
  accounting system but may be a new source
• private land countryside is a net source due to
  deforestation

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In Summary

• the northern boreal is a new source risk
• the industrial forest will likely be out of the
  accounting system but may be a new source
• private land countryside is a net source due to
  deforestation
• carbon policy development is in paralysis because
  we are not good at science led policy

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Thank You For Your Attention
The ultimate test of a moral society is the kind
of world that it leaves to its children.
Dietrich Bonhoeffer, theologian (1906-1945)
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