1' The Operational System of Weather Forecasting in MeteoGalicia 2' MOHID a water modelling system 3

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1. The Operational System of Weather Forecasting
in MeteoGalicia2. MOHID a water modelling
system 3. Outlooks
Meteo
Galicia
Summary
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The Operational System of Weather Forecasting in
MeteoGalicia
Universidade de Santiago de Compostela
Consellería de Medio Ambiente
Meteo
Galicia

• V. Pérez-Muñuzuri, P. Montero, E. Penabad, C.F.
  Balseiro, P. Carracedo and B. Gómez
• http//meteo.usc.es

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Numerical model applied to Galicia weather
forecast

• ARPS Advanced Regional Prediction System.
• Prognostic
• Navier-Stokes equations (u,v,w)
• Conservation equation for heat (?)
• Conservation equation for water substances (qi)
• Pressure equation (p)
• Turbulent kinetic energy equation (TKE)
• Diagnostic
• Equation of state of moist air (?)

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Numerical model applied to Galicia weather
forecast

• ARPS
• Operational non-hydrostatic model
• Widely tested and validated
• Application to different environments (weather
  forecast, dispersion modeling (As Pontes, A
  Coruña harbor), coupling to climate models, etc)
• nesting
• standard initial and boundary conditions
• specific parameterizations
• high resolutions
• Galicia forecast
• wind, temperature, pressure, humidity
• clouds
• rain, ice, snow, graupel
• storms

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Numerical model topography
Fine Grid 43x43, 10 km
Coarse Grid 65x51, 50 km
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Daily Operational System Twice per day 00Z 12Z
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28 Oct, 2000
IR 1700 UTC
0700 UTC Rain
1200 UTC Rain
1800 UTC Rain
A
B
A
B
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22 surface stations Galician meteorological
network
http//www.siam-cma.org

• Model validation
• Statistics
• Data assimilation

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Results Wind surface fields

• Coarse Grid Fine Grid

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Model Validation for the Prestige Case

• Wind Surface Model Output vs Observations
  (Corrubedo)

Module
Direction
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Wind Drift Trajectories
Trajectories Wind drift (3 ) Initial positions
from observations
Trajectories Wind drift (3 ) Confidence
Limit Initial position from sunk Prestige
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• An hydrodynamical model is needed
• A strategy of sharing information was established
  between MeteoGalicia and IST to develop an
  atmospheric ocean coupled model (ARPS-MOHID)

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MOHID a water modelling system

• R. Neves, F. Braunschweig, R. Fernandes, P.
  Leitão, P. Pina and H. Coelho
• http//www.mohid.com

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Presentation contents

• MOHID structure
• Some results
• The case of the prestige

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Surface
http//www.mohid.com
Oil processes
Water Properties


Water Quality.
Waves
Dissolved properties
Currents
Advection Diffusion
Turbulence http//www.gotm.net
Particulated Properties
Módulo Interface BOTTOM
Sediment Properties
Sediment Quality.
Interstitial water

• Physical processes
• Consolidation, bioturbation

Solid phase
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MOHID hydrodynamic module Main characteristics

• Boussinesq and hydrostatic approximations
• Finite volumes discretization
• Generic vertical discretization
• Baroclinic pressure z level
• Semi-implicit
• One-way nesting
• Boundary conditions Flow relaxation, radiation

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Processes and scales integration
Initial schematic profile
2D barotropic flow
3D 10 layers
3D 10 layers
Tide Constant North wind 0.1 Pa Density gradients
ModelLevel 2
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10 days simulation
Velocity 2D
SST / velocity
SST / velocity
Tide Density gradients Constant North wind 0.1
Pa
Galicia West Coast
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Satellite Images 1994

• 19 Jun 25 Jun ? North Wind 0.1 Pa ?
  26 Jun 02 Jul

? N Wind 0.1 Pa ?
2nd day
10th day
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Primary production
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Climatologic forcing (Coelho et al., 2002)

• Dx 1/4º . Result after 2 years of spin up

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Global tide solution
This global tide results are being validate
comparing them with the FES95.2 solution
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The Prestige Case
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Oil drift before ship breaking
Ship Trajectory
Oil Drift - Mohid
Forcing Conditions - Wind (spatial / temporal
variation prediction from operational model of
Meteo Galicia and IST) - Hydrodynamics 20
layers (superficial layer 10cm) with variable
density (climatologic stratification) slope
current - Vertical turbulence (GOTM model) - 2 Km
minimum spatial step
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Oil drift before ship breaking
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Oil drift after ship breaking
Trajectory observed
Mohid simulations
Forcing Conditions - Wind (spatial / temporal
variation prediction from operational model of
Meteo Galicia and IST) - Hydrodynamics 20
layers (superficial layer 10cm) with variable
density (climatologic stratification) slope
current - Vertical turbulence (GOTM model) - 10
Km minimum spatial step
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Near shore oil drift after ship breaking
Forcing Conditions - Wind (spatial / temporal
variation prediction from operational model of
Meteo Galicia and IST) - Hydrodynamics 20
layers (superficial layer 10cm) with variable
density (climatologic stratification) slope
current - Vertical turbulence (GOTM model) - 10
Km minimum spatial step
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Outlooks
Meteo
Galicia
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Current problems

• Offshore aerial observations shows surface oil
  slicks transported by wind drift
• Nearshore some oil slicks suddenly appeared in
  the right side of the wind drift trajectory
• This can be explained by fuel oil transported
  in subsurface layers, by surface currents Coma
  Hypothesis. Tarballs, consisting mainly of the
  micelle part of the oilspill, have travelled
  within the mixed layer (approx. 15 m depth), thus
  being affected by the currents and not only by
  the wind stress.

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Expected difficulties

• How to validate nested model results ? Satellite
  images, CTD, ADCP?
• How to validate ascending velocity of fuel oil
  escaping from the tanker?
• How to validate currents along the ascending
  trajectory of fuel oil ?

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Ongoing Work

• Run a 3D baroclinic model for the North Atlantic
• The solution will be refined in the prestige area
  of influence using several nesting levels (50 km
  1 km).
• The joint effect of tide, wind, river run-off and
  atmosphere heat fluxes will be considered

• Compute the fuel oil ascension using tracers with
  buoyancy

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Future Work

• Need for an Oceanographical-Meteorological
  Operational Model
• Simulation and analysis of possible solutions for
  the Prestige considering the different scenarios
  of recovering the oil at 3.5 km depth
• Management of a data base with different
  simulations of oil-spills in order to build a GIS
  system with these statistical results to prevent
  new oil spills and be able to offer results of
  trajectories within a few hours after the
  disaster.
• Need of a strategical plan for quick response in
  case of new oil spills