San Diego Aviation Infrastructure

1
San Diego Aviation Infrastructure Issues
2
Course Theme
Institutions

• Regional Economic Change
• Demographic Change
• End of Suburbanization

Policy Outcomes
3
Course Theme Airports
New Airport Authority

• Rise of Technology Clusters Tourism
• Demographic Change
• Running out of Raw Land

New Airport?
4
Overview of the Lecture

• Brief Review of the Issue
• Economics Airports
• New Airport Authority Workplan

5
San Diego and its Airport

• Topic of Discussion since 1946
• Airports are Economic Generators
• But also loud, noisy, air pollution
• Miramar examined a number of times
• Latest in 1992
• Also Twin Ports in the Early 1990s
• Likely ballot vote in 2006

6
Arguments in Favor of Moving the Airport

• Lindbergh Smallest Major Airport in America (650
  acres)
• Short Runway restricts the kind of airplanes
  that service San Diego
• Noise over Point Loma
• Traffic Congestion on Habor Drive to get to
  airport

7
Arguments Against Moving Airport

• Convenience to Downtown (and especially to
  Convention Center)
• San Diegos status as a non-hub
• Costs to Build new airport
• Financial condition of the Port
• Noise in potentially impacted neighborhoods

8
Opponents Supporters

• Opponents
• Port
• Communities surrounding potential sites
• Some Downtown interests
• Proponents
• Industries needing air connections
• Organized Labor
• Point Loma

9
Airports Economics
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ESTIMATING OPPORTUNITY COSTS
Estimated Impacts of Passengers and Air Cargo
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ESTIMATING OPPORTUNITY COSTS
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ESTIMATING OPPORTUNITY COSTS
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UNCONSTRAINED DEMAND, 2000 - 2030
Passengers
40M
25M
5M
2000
2010
2030
2020
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UNCONSTRAINED DEMAND, 2000 - 2030
Air Cargo (tons)
600K
300K
100K
2000
2010
2030
2020
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Other Economic Issues

• High-Tech/Bio-Tech reliance on Air Connections
• Surrounding Development Patterns

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TOTAL ECONOMIC IMPACTOF AIR TRANSPORTATION



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THE CONSTRAINED CAPACITY SCENARIOS
Annual Air Cargo tons
Capacity Scenario
Annual Air Operations
Annual Passengers millions
Existing 275,000 18.7 - 25.6 110,000
- Facilities 140,000 Limited 282,000 18.7
- 26.3 220,000 - Expansion 240,000 Major 335
,000 - 24.4 - 27.9 300,000 - Expansion 337,000
325,000 Unconstrained Demand 373,160 35.5 541,
000
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WHAT ARE THEOPPORTUNITY COSTS?
In the Year 2030 (1997 Dollars)
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San Diego County Regional Airport Authority
(SDCRAA)

• SDCRAA operates and plans for Lindbergh Field
• Responsible for airport planning in the San Diego
  region

20
San Diego Airport Authority

• 2000 Movement to Take Airport out from Authority
  of Port District
• New Airport Authority Created
• Run by 9 member board
• NOT ELECTED!!! Appointed by variety of officials
• Mayor of San Diego (3 appointments)
• Sheriff (1 appointment)
• Governor of California (1 appointment)
• Small City Mayors (4 appointments)

21
San Diego Airport Authority

• Eliminate Ports Financial Stake in keeping
  airport at Lindbergh
• Reduce Role of Nimbies
• (Not In My BackYard)
• Insure Broad Geographic Representation

22

• Air Transportation
• Action Program
• for the
• San Diego Region

23

• Air Transportation Action
• Program for the
• San Diego Region

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• Air Transportation Planning

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General Program Overview
Eliminate the infeasible, ineffective, and
obviously unattainable ones
Compare the benefits and costs of the remaining
solutions
Generate a list of all possible solutions
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Long-Term StrategyProgram Status
320 scenarios reduced to 21
INITIAL SCREENING Eliminate scenarios that
obviously do not work
March - May 2002
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Air Transportation Action Plan

• Insulation from Politics working but.
• Planning Takes a long time Opponents can
  organize
• Dispersed Powers allow attempts at Intervention
  (AB 77)
• Still many hurdles left in process

28
Predictions

• Power of new interest groups will provide impetus
  to try
• New Authority will be able to propose
• Lack of Complete Authority Will probably lead to
  failure