A Peak Oil Update and a Quantitative Assessment of Future Net Oil Exports by the Top Five Net

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A Peak Oil Update and a Quantitative Assessment
of Future Net Oil Exports by the Top Five Net Oil
Exporters

• Jeffrey J. Brown Samuel Foucher, Ph.D.

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Capital Energy Required to Produce Liquid
Transportation Fuels from Fossil Fuels

• Capital Energy Requirements Increase

Liquid
Gas
Solid

• Carbon Content Contaminants Increasing

Jeffrey J. Brown, Geologist email
westexas_at_aol.com
Natural Gas
Bitumen
Coal
Natural Gas Liquids
Condensate
Light Sweet Crude
Heavy Sour Crude
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Lower 48 Production 1960-1980
Source EIA, crude oil condensate only
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Lower 48 HL Plot
Source EIA, crude oil condensate only
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Total Lower 48 Production (1990 to current)
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Lower 48 and World Production
Source EIA, crude oil condensate only
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Jeffrey J. Brown, Geologist email
westexas_at_aol.com
Source Material GRAPHOILOGY by KHEBAB
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Jeffrey J. Brown, Geologist email
westexas_at_aol.com
Source Material GRAPHOILOGY by KHEBAB
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Texas and Saudi Production
Source EIA, crude oil condensate only,
Railroad Commission of Texas
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Texas and Saudi Production
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Texas and North Sea Production
Source EIA, crude oil condensate only
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Export Land Model
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ELM, UK and Indonesia, Year over Year Changes in
Net Exports
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Conventional Wisdom - the Economist Quote About
Saudi Arabia
 Saudi Aramco's proved reserves alone could
keep the world supplied for several decades. But
it is only exploiting ten of its 80 or so fields,
so will be able to pump at the present rate for
about 70 years even if it never discovers another
drop of oil .  Economist Magazine, August 10,
2006
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Saudi Arabia Constant Production at 11  mbpd,
Versus Consumption Increasing at 5.7/year
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Saudi Arabia, Production, Consumption
URR224 24 Gb
-2.7 2/year
4.4 2/year
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Saudi Arabia, Net Exports
-4.73 4/year
2015
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Russia, Production, Consumption
URR204 7 Gb

-5.1 2/year
0.3 0.8/year
2015
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Russia, Exports
-8.2 4/year
2015
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Norway, Production, Consumption
URR29 1 Gb

-11.0 2/year
0.7 2.7/year
2015
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Norway, Exports
-12.1 2.5/year
2015
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Iran, Production, Consumption
URR124 12 Gb

-1.5 2/year
2.9 1.8/year
2015
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Iran, Exports
-4.9 7/year
2015
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UAE, Production, Consumption
URR49 9 Gb

-2.9 4/year
 
5.0 5.0/year
2015
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UAE, Exports
-4.0 7/year
2015
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Top Five, Production, Consumption
URR680 55 Gb
-3.8 2/year
1.8 0.9/year
2015
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Top Five, Exports
-6.2 4/year
2015
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Top Five Net Exports, With US  Total Imports
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Electrified Transportation in San Angelo, Texas,
Circa 1908