Livestock, Dairy, and Poultry Outlook

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Livestock, Dairy, and Poultry Outlook

• Curt Lacy
• Extension Economist - Livestock
• Contributors John McKissick and Bill Thomas

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Overview

• General Situation
• Beef Outlook
• Poultry Outlook
• Dairy Outlook
• Hogs Outlook

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Contribution Of Various Enterprises to Georgias
Ag Economy
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Beef Cattle Outlook
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Supply
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Supply
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Supply
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Demand

• Domestic Consumption
• At home Expected to remain steady to improving
• Away from home With weak economy may suffer
  somewhat
• Exports
• Biggest uncertainty
• BSE in Japan has seriously curtailed export demand

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Projected 2002 Prices Georgia M1 Steers
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Poultry Outlook
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Demand

• Consumer demand expected to remain
  good,particularly if economy remains weak
• Exports still expected to grow but not as much as
  2001

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Projected Prices Returns Above Operating Costs,
2002
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Dairy Outlook
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December Milk Production

• Dec. up 1 from 2000
• Nov production adjusted down to .3
• 62,000 cows less than 2000 (20 States)
• 10,000 cows more than Nov
• Most of growth in West
• 12.4 - New Mexico
• 7.2 Idaho
• Down 1.4 for year

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Change in Production 4th Qr 2001
-7.9
-1.5
-5.9
-15
-7.9
-10.3
1.5
-10.4
-3.5
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All Milk Price

• 2001 price averaged 14.90
• 2.50 higher than 2000
• 50 cents below 1998 record
• Above 5 yr average by 1.00
• 2002
• Production up 3
• Demand flat
• Price down

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Regional Milk Production, 1980
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Regional Milk Production, 2000
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Regional Milk Production, 2020
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2001 Dairy Disappearance

• Total up 0.1
• Fluid down 0.3
• Butter down 4.7
• Am cheese up 3.0
• Other cheese down 0.4
• Economy slow
• Travel eating out down
• Dairy major ingredient

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FO 7 Blend Prices
16.13
14.91
13.63
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Pork Outlook
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Pork Outlook Demand

• Will remain strong
• Domestic and Export demand steady
• Retail pork prices unchanged

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Projected Market Hog PricesGeorgia, 2002
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Summary

• Cattle Good prices for next few years
• Poultry Steady prices and reasonable costs mean
  expected profits for 2002
• Dairy Lower prices than 2001 but overall good
• Pork Good prices and low costs mean expected
  profits

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