Oregon%20Integrated%20Land%20Use%20and%20Transportation%20Models

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Oregon Integrated Land Use and Transportation
Models

• Part 1 Statewide Model
• Part 2 MetroScope
• Part 3 Land Use Scenario
• Developer (LUSDR)

Prepared for the Oregon MPO Consortium May 1, 2007
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Model Features
Model Name Activity Modeled Integration Model Type
Statewide Model Land Use-Transport -Economy Fully Integrated Equilibrium Simulation
MetroScope Land Use-Transport Connected Equilibrium
LUSDR Land Use-Transport Connected Stochastic
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Oregon Integrated Land Use and Transportation
Models
Part 1 Statewide Model

• Prepared for the Oregon MPO Consortium
• Presented by Becky Knudson
• ODOT Transportation Development Division
• May 1, 2007

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Why a Statewide Model

• Provide forecast of interurban and interregional
  traffic on state highways.
• With out a statewide model, traffic forecasting
  can only extrapolate past growth trends. These
  forecasts are not very sensitive to land use and
  transport policies.
• As the state gets more populous, the amount of
  interurban travel becomes more substantial.
  There is a need, particularly in the I-5
  corridor, to simulate the effects of present and
  potential land use and transport policies.

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Modeling in Oregon

• Coordinated through Oregon Modeling Steering
  Committee (OMSC)
• OMSC established to
• Realize gains from shared knowledge
• Avoid duplication of effort
• Combine resources to benefit new modeling efforts
• Good progress in Travel Demand modeling
• Time to turn more attention to Land Use modeling

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Why is Land Use Modeling Important?

• Land use in most transport models is an input
  into a model
• Must rely on separate forecast for land use and
  entered into model
• Modeling land use
• Reduces land use input data burden
• Provides more objectivity and consistency
• Captures redistribution/density of land uses in
  response to changes
• Is more theoretically consistent

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Why Integrated Land Use Transport Models?

• Produce future land use forecasts that account
  for transportation
• Analyze cumulative and indirect effects of
  proposed transportation projects
• Evaluate compliance with land use
• Explore transportation opportunities
• Evaluate economic effects of policies
• Facilitate integrated land use and transportation
  planning

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Why Use an Integrated Economic, Transportation
Land Use Model

• Transport systems affect economic production and
  the distribution of land use and vise versa.
• The potential impacts of transport system changes
  on land use is a concern
• Land use policy may be strategic manner in which
  to address transportation issues
• Economic, land use and transportation
  relationships are complex. Predicting outcomes of
  proposed policies and/or projects involves huge
  computational burden. Computer models are
  necessary tools for useful analysis.

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Oregons Statewide Integrated Land Use
Transport - Economic Model

• Gen1 (1999)
• Proof of Concept
• Large analysis zones
• Few industry sectors
• Only two land use types
• Simple network
• Truck freight only

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Oregons Statewide Integrated Land Use
Transport - Economic Model

• Transitional Model (Oregon2TM)
• More detail
• Modular
• Equilibrium modules
• Simulation modules
• Remains a regional model, does not include urban
  detail
• Consistent with MPO models

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County Boundaries (36)
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(28)
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Oregon2TM Beta Zones (519)
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Oregon2TM Alpha Zones (2,950)
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Oregon2TM Alpha Zones
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RVMPO Zones Compared to OR2TM
RVMPO zones 744 OR2TM alpha zones 154 OR2TM
beta zones 23
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Statewide Model Relationship to MPO Models

• Provide alternative population and economic
  forecasts for MPO model area
• Provide intercity travel data for use in MPO
  external model
• Provide information for major improvements that
  affect travel beyond MPO boundary (e.g., Salem
  Third Bridge)
• Provide information to assist with future land
  use allocation for MPOs with no land use model

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Structure of Oregon2 Transitional Model
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Policy Analysis

• Willamette Valley
• Bridge Limitations Study
• Newberg-Dundee EIS
• OTP

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Willamette Valley Alternative Transportation
Futures
By 2050 Willamette Valley population will
increase from 2.3 million to nearly 4
million Governor initiated a big-picture
brain-storming on alternative futures for
Oregons most populous region as well as an
agriculturally important area.
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Project Approach

• Help decision-makers understand
• How different land use and transportation
  policies are likely to affect land use patterns
  and state highway congestion
• Sensitivities of growth patterns and highway
  congestion to different land use and
  transportation policies

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Findings

• Supply of land affects price and therefore where
  people and jobs locate
• What transportation improvements and where they
  are made affects where people and jobs locate
• How people pay for transportation affects where
  they locate

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Legislative Directive to Study a New Freeway in
Eastern Oregon
The 2001 Legislature asked If a new freeway is
constructed in Central or Eastern Oregon, will it
divert traffic and development from I-5 in the
Willamette Valley?
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Central/Eastern Oregon Freeway

• Simple Answer No.
• Analysis revealed
• New highway would increase speed and reduce
  travel time from border to border
• May benefit Washington or California more than
  Eastern or Central Oregon
• Where access to the Willamette Valley improves,
  the larger market attracts more growth to Valley
• Better question
• What can we do to divert traffic and development
  from I-5 and the Willamette Valley to Eastern and
  Central Oregon?

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Oregon Bridge Deficiency Analysis
Over 500 Oregon bridges identified in 2001 as
structurally deficient. Cost to repair/replace
4.7 billion. The statewide model used to
evaluate alternative bridge investment
strategies. Final investment plan based on bridge
cost, economic costs, community/regional impacts.
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Findings

• Model results helped to clearly identify the
  problem develop a solution
• Analysis showed no immediate crisis, but
  predicted large losses of future jobs and reduced
  production if problem is not addressed
• Analysis revealed the regional and industry
  impacts, which identified constituent issues
• ODOT changing initial approach Fix Worst First
  to Corridor Analysis implemented through a
  staged repair and replacement program

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ODOT Recommendation

• 2.5B, initial 10-year strategy to address 4.7B
  bridge problem
• Address detour routes before interstate
  construction
• Over 90 percent of the statewide economic benefit
  of repairing all bridges gained for nearly half
  the cost

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Proposed Highway BypassInduced Growth Analysis
EIS for proposed bypass of two towns on a major
recreation route and commuter-shed of
Portland The model was used to examine the
potential effects on growth of population, jobs
and travel.
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Modeling/Analysis Conclusions

• A bypass would likely
• Stimulate economic growth in McMinnville
• Support greater travel for all purposes
• Have minimal effects on smaller communities in
  Yamhill County
• Commuter effects vary with a bypass
• Increased commuting by residents west of
  McMinnville to Portland east of McMinnville
• Commuters east of McMinnville shift commute from
  Portland to McMinnville

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Modeling/Analysis Conclusions

• System wide
• Total number of auto trips the same for No Action
  and Bypass
• Total hours of travel the same for No Action and
  Bypass
• Total miles traveled greater with the Bypass

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Questions?
Becky Knudson rebecca.a.knudson_at_odot.state.or.us 5
03.986.4113 Transportation Planning Analysis
Unit ODOT Planning Section 555 13th ST. NE Salem,
OR 97301
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Summary of Model Features
Model Name Activity Modeled Integration Model Type
Statewide Model Land Use-Transport -Economy Fully Integrated Equilibrium Simulation
MetroScope Land Use-Transport Connected Equilibrium
LUSDR Land Use-Transport Connected Stochastic