Its not what you eat its the way that you eat it: Scary stories about food and risk

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Its not what you eat its the way that you eat
itScary stories about food and risk

• Richard Fielding
• School of Public Health,
• HKU

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Objectives

• Enhance insight into the concept of risk,
  particularly in relation to food
• Recognize that different perspectives held by
  different groups produce varied risks.
• Cook up balanced food-related stories as a result
  of these insights

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Background

• Science as true fact vs. perception as
  illusion and opinion. More accurately parallel
  processes.
• Facts only acquire meaning within contexts,
  those contexts mostly socio-culturally defined.
• Neurologically, pattern (and therefore meaning)
  is imposed on sensory activity by experience,
  expectation, current priorities and context.

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Perceptions

• are synthetic central processes involving the
  attribution of meaning to extrinsic and intrinsic
  activity.
• are rule bound hypotheses applied to anticipated
  stimuli, hence they involve judgments about the
  likely interpretation of stimuli.
• Information provided by the stimuli and the
  settings of the stimuli

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What is risk?

• Not simply the probability of an event.
• A complex function of beliefs, values, knowledge,
  social organization and culture.
• How big a risk is terrorism relative to food
  borne infections, road traffic accidents or
  physical inactivity?
• Even when there is risk, there may be
  countervailing benefits
• To understand risk we must consider behavioural
  factors.

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Marketing pressure

• Brand development creation of demand
• Obstruction of regulatory efforts.
• Extreme marketing sophistication to maximize
  consumption.
• Recent stock market falls due to fears of lower
  corporate profits from a slowdown in
  consumption illustrate how profit-driven macro-
  economics has become.
• VNRs (video news releases) to TV stations ads
  dressed to look like news reports and sent to
  news channels for air time.

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Support for central slaughtering ()
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Press focus

• Press questions largely ignored risk exposure and
  perception data, focusing on
• Governments agenda in trying to deprive
  population of live chickens (traditional foods)
• Who funded the study (? the government)
• Why was it done? (hidden agenda)
• Subsequent press coverage 10/13 items focused
  largely on the least change option for slaughter
  rather than exposure and health threats, i.e
  their own, rather than our agenda (Making the
  news!).

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Signal value
What does an event mean? Does it possess signal
value?
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Risk amplification

• Information mechanisms of social amplification
• Experience with dramatic events increases
  memorability which heightens the perceptions of
  risk, but most risk experience indirect
• Large volumes of information can amplify risk
  through raising profile relative to competing
  issues
• Debates among experts heighten uncertainty among
  lay people
• Dramatization (e.g Media exaggeration, misrep. of
  reports)
• Interpretations, rumours, social networks
• Meanings differ for specific terminology, e.g.
  mushroom cloud, incinerator, pandemic

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Implications for health communications

• Risk probability of occurrence x magnitude of
  impact
• Messages that raise anxiety produce unpredictable
  outcomes - may not reduce risk behaviour, or if
  they do, behaviour reverts following threat
  reduction
• Risk perception modified by
• cognitive and social influences
• past experience,
• current beliefs values,
• Framing,
• perceived motive,
• trustworthiness.

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Risk and uncertainty problems with choice

• Traditionally the past drove the present, in risk
  society, the future now drives the present, e.g.
  emphasis on Lifestyles and choices, key terms
  in current health care debates
• Choice brings responsibility for outcomes, also a
  justification for resistance to change.
• Uncertainty different from risk, but the two are
  considered synonymous
• Increasing patient involvement brings new
  problems the risk of guilt, regret, personal
  failure.
• But life is uncertain. Choice shifts
  responsibility from provider to consumer
• Heuristics and biases in perception
• Factors affecting uncertainty, e.g. inconsistent
  food quality, evoke largest responses
  unpredictability

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Probabilities Heuristics Biases

• Representativeness.
• Availability bias
• Confirmatory bias
• Overconfidence accuracy of prediction vs
  feedback (calibration)
• Confusion over probabilities - relative risk
• vs absolute risk

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Societal reactions to hazards

• Some hazards under-reactions
• Some hazards over-reactions.
• Amplification stages include
• Scientists conducting/communication technical
  assessment of risk
• Risk-management institution
• News media
• Activist social organizations
• Opinion leaders in social groups
• Personal - peer networks and reference groups
• Public agencies
• Social amplification spawns behavioural responses
  which lead to secondary impacts.
• E.g. falling beef sales after BSE fish sales
  after malachite green etc.

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Mary Douglas

• the effect of culture is to focus attention on
  certain dangers thereby transforming them into
  moral indicators.

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Historical nature of risk

• Changing patterns of disease
• Increased technological power (and potential for
  harm)
• Unintended consequences from change, and the
  recognition that change is fast-paced raise the
  question What next?
• E.g. GM foods
• Balancing social acceptance of risk with
  benefits precautionary principle

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Is the threat of avian flu over-stated?
Each century averages three influenza
pandemics. Most recent were in 1918, 1957 and
1968.
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World Poultry Trade

• 300 billion chickens USA, Brazil produce 70 of
  total world poultry exports, and EU are largest
  producers. 2004 Top 20 exporters value US8.1
  billion dollars
• 200 million chickens culled to control H5N1
• Declines in poultry consumption worldwide -70 in
  Italy, 25 India, 20 France -
• Projected worldwide trade in poultry 8.6 million
  tons revised to 8.1 million tons Feb 2006 FAO.
• Feed producers-42 billion industry lt 40
  reduction in in demand. Mostly soya. Largely US,
  Brazil. (major driving force for Amazonian
  deforestation)

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String of flaws found at Bernard Matthews plant
Guardian, Saturday February 17 2007 John Vidal,
Guardian environment editor The Bernard Matthews
plant infected with bird flu had serious
biosecurity shortfalls, a government
investigation has found holes in the turkey
sheds where birds, rats and mice could get in and
spread the H5N1 disease, leaking roofs, and
uncovered bins where seagulls were seen carrying
off meat waste. It also emerged yesterday that
the government is to look at whether (...) The
Bernard Matthews plant infected with bird flu had
serious biosecurity shortfalls, a (...)
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Matthews lays off 130 turkey workers Producer
reports 40 slump in sales Bird flu danger not
over, Miliband warns MPs Rebecca Smithers,
consumer affairs correspondentTuesday February
20, 2007The Guardian The company at the centre
of Britain's bird flu outbreak was last night
preparing to lay off hundreds of staff at one of
its factories in East Anglia as the environment
secretary, David Miliband, admitted the UK
remains vulnerable to further infection. In a
statement, Bernard Matthews blamed the
"regrettable" job losses on a 40 slump in sales
of its turkey products since the outbreak two
weeks ago. It is the first evidence of a serious
decline in consumer
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Information sources
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The costs and benefits of things

• How much are governments/ producers in touch with
  what consumers want?
• E.g. GM foods very strongly supported by
  gov/industry but not by consumers, but air
  pollution strong concern of population but seldom
  addressed by industry/gov as a concern.
• Distancing of decision-makers from consumers
• Relative access to government decision making as
  experts/government knows best challenged

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Choice vs regulation

• Belief in right to make choices, but consequences
  of those choices now can impact on future
  generations.
• When should governments regulate and how?
• Involvement of consumers in decisions about
  regulation and risk analysis
• Cheap food or good food - its your choice.