Title: Ohio Gas Association SalesMarketing Seminar Joe Kienle Dominion Transmission July 1920, 2005 Columbu
1Ohio Gas Association Sales/Marketing SeminarJoe
KienleDominion TransmissionJuly 19-20,
2005Columbus, Ohio
2Cautionary Statement Regarding Forward-looking
Statements
This presentation includes forward-looking
statements and projections, made in reliance on
the safe harbor provisions of the Private
Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995. The
company has made every reasonable effort to
ensure that the information and assumptions on
which these statement and projections are based
are current, reasonable, and complete. However,
a variety of factors could cause actual results
to differ materially from the projections,
anticipated results or other expectations
expressed in this presentation, including,
without limitation, our ability to implement and
achieve our objectives in the long-range plan
changes in commodity prices for oil, natural gas,
and power the ability to obtain necessary
governmental approvals for proposed projects and
ability to successfully construct and operate
such projects regulatory uncertainties general
economic and weather conditions in geographic
regions or markets served by the company and its
affiliates, or where operations of the company
and its affiliates are located the uncertainties
associated with governmental regulation
competition and other factors described in the
companys (and its affiliates) Securities and
Exchange Commission filings. While the company
makes these statements and projections in good
faith, neither the company nor its management can
guarantee that anticipated future results will be
achieved. Reference must be made to those
filings for additional important factors that may
affect actual results. The company assumes no
obligation to publicly update or revise any
forward-looking statements made herein or any
other forward-looking statements made by the
company, whether as a result of new information,
future events, or otherwise.
3Dominion Transmission, Inc.Pipeline and Storage
- 7,600 miles of pipeline
- 6.3 BCF/day peaking deliverability
- Operate 950 BCF of storage
- Direct access to growing East Coast markets
Charleston, WV
4DTI Storage Fields
Woodhull
Harrison
Sharon
Tioga
Ellisburg
Sabinsville
Leidy
Greenlick
South Bend
Oakford
Lebanon
North Summit
PL-1
Bridgeport
Fink Kennedy
Racket
Cove Point
4
5Cove Point - 2005
- 4 tanks w/ combined
- Capacity of approx 5 Bcf
- 5th tank added 2.8 BCF Capacity
- 1 BCF/Day Deliverability
- Shippers
- BP
- Shell
- Statoil
- On-site liquefaction
6U.S. Natural Gas Demand 2010
Sources EIA, Dominion Estimates
7U.S. Natural Gas Demand - 2010
Sources EIA, Dominion Estimates
8Long-term Electric Demand Changes thru 2010
Due to future
environmental regulations
9Growing Supply/Demand Imbalance in the U.S.
Imbalance
Amount of gas needed annually to cover decline
and future growth 6.1 Tcf
Annualsupply decline rate 28 or
5.5 Tcf
Average incremental production brought on line
annually over the last 5 years 4.5 Tcf
Tcf
Sources Supply decline rate for U.S. natural
gas production based on industry data. Demand
growth and historical production data based on
EIA/DOE reports and company estimates.
102004/2005 Dominion Hub ActivityAverage Daily
Volumes (Dt)
11Cove Point Imports
Monthly Total (Bcf)
25
20
15
10
5
0
J
F
M
A
M
J
J
A
S
O
N
D
2004
2003
Source Office of Fossil Energy / Office of
Natural Gas Regulatory Activities US Dept of
Energy
12SP TCO Daily Spot Prices
10
9
8
7
6
5
4
3
2
Jul-02
Oct-02
Jan-03
Apr-03
Jul-03
Oct-03
Jan-04
Apr-04
Jul-04
Oct-04
Jan-05
South Point
TCO
Source ICE/10X Day Ahead Gas Indices
13South Point to Northeast Cash Basis
14Whats Our Price View?
Gas Prices (/mmbtu)
Resid Oil Displaces Gas
Demand Decreases
Marginal LNG Imports Increase
6.50
Storage Level
World Events
World Weather
5.50
Gas Displaces Marginal Coal
Marginal LNG Imports Decrease
Rig Utilization Decreases
2.50
Supply Bubble
2.00
2000
2010
23
15US Storage Status - (06/24/2005)
Current Inventory 2,123 Bcf Injection 92 Bcf
5 Year Maximum
5 Year Average
2005 Actual
5 Year Minimum
Inventory Level (bcf)
Nov.1
Mar.31
2004 Actual
April 1
Oct. 28
Week
16US Injection Benchmark Assumes Historic
Injection Pattern (00-04)
Nov. 1 Inventory
Current Inventory 2,123 Bcf
3.4 Tcf
3.2 Tcf
3.0 Tcf
2005 Actual
2.8 Tcf
Inventory Level (bcf)
Cooling Degree Days
Norm CDD
Actual CDD
Week
17Storage Outlook
- 2-3 increases in NE residential usage
- Winter 2004-05 setting new peaks
- Mid Atlantic electrics set new winter peaks
- Volatility in NYMEX and cash market
- Weather
- Storage
- Spec Traders
18LNG Import Terminals
Cove Point
Existing
Proposed
- Of 40 new LNG projects targeting North America,
13 have already been canceled - In addition to existing terminal expansions,
Dominion believes up to 7 Greenfield projects may
proceed by 2010
Source EIA, Poten, Dominion Estimates
19How Can The U.S. Market Respond?
Source EIA, Dominion Estimates
20LNG Market Update
- LNG can enter or exit available terminal capacity
within weeks of market signal - US price signals must compete with other global
options - Flexibility may be limited by
- Long-term LNG supply contracts by those with load
obligations in Europe Pacific - Shipping and export capacity limitations
- Liquefaction appears to be a bottleneck in the
2008-2010 timeframe
21Cove Point Expansion
22Cove Point Expansion 2008
23Dominions View
- Traditional supply and Canadian imports still
critical for US supply portfolio - LNG will play an important role in balancing
supply and demand - Electric sector is becoming key component of
natural gas demand
24Visit our website at www.dom.com/investors/