Implications of Global Oil Depletion for Transport Planning in South Africa

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Implications of Global Oil Depletion for
Transport Planning in South Africa

• Jeremy Wakeford
• Research Director
• Association for the Study of Peak Oil SA
• South African Cities Network
• Sustainable Public Transport Seminar
• 15 August 2008

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Outline

• Introduction
• Global oil depletion
• Alternative transport fuels for SA
• Implications for SA transport planning
• Conclusions

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Introduction

• Transport planning traditionally rests on demand
  projections
• This assumes cheap plentiful fuel (oil)
• Evidence suggests global oil production might
  peak decline within a few years
• Business-as-usual will no longer be feasible

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A World Addicted to Oil

• Oil provides
• 35 of total energy supply
• 95 of transport fuels
• inputs for industrial agriculture
• petrochemical feedstock
• Demand is surging in China India

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40 yrs
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Oil Production in Europe
Source Energy Watch Group (2007)
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Oil Producers Past Peak
Source Energy Watch Group (2007)
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World Oil Production Forecast
Source Energy Watch Group (2007)
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World Oil Production
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World Liquid Fuels Supply
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Peak Oil Exports

• Consumption growing in leading exporters
• World oil exports set to decline soon

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Alternative Energy Sources

• Unconventional oil has low net energy
• Coal is polluting may peak by 2025
• Natural gas supplies are already very tight
• Biofuels threaten food water security
• Nuclear electricity is limited risky
• uranium may peak by 2020
• Renewables produce electricity
• All viable alternatives require time money to
  be scaled up

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Alternative Technology

• Replacement of current inefficient vehicles will
  take many years and billions
• Costs of new infrastructure are soaring
• Fuel prices will have to rise high enough to
  destroy demand

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Hirsch Report to US DoE (2005)

• The peaking of world oil production presents
  the U.S. and the world with an unprecedented risk
  management problem. As peaking is approached,
  liquid fuel prices and price volatility will
  increase dramatically, and, without timely
  mitigation, the economic, social, and political
  costs will be unprecedented. Viable mitigation
  options exist on both the supply and demand
  sides, but to have substantial impact, they must
  be initiated more than a decade in advance of
  peaking.

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Likely Consequences

• Supply/demand crunch
• Rising oil price volatility
• Fuel shortages
• Rising inflation interest rates
• Recession growing unemployment
• Food insecurity social instability
• Financial crash?
• Resource wars?

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Oil Dependence in SA

• Petroleum 97 of transport fuels
• 63 imported
• 30 Sasol (coal-to-liquids)
• 7 PetroSA (crude gas-to-liquids)
• Transport heavily dependent on roads
• 80 of freight
• 95 of motorised passengers

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Domestic Fuel Supply Options

• Sasol might expand CTL to 50 of SAs fuel needs
  by 2014
• PetroSAs gas reserves are rapidly depleting
• Even if there are new off-shore oil gas fields,
  they will take 7-10 years to deliver
• Biofuel target is 2 of liquid fuels by 2013
• Electricity supply is already constrained
• Hydrogen is a net energy loser

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Likely Impacts

• Further rising fuel prices
• Fuel shortages within a few years
• Rising costs of new infrastructure road
  maintenance
• Falling demand for new road vehicles
• Reduced traffic congestion pollution

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Source SAPIA
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Source SARB
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Implications for Transport

• End of mass air travel
• Decline in private car use
• Wealthier will switch to hybrids, electric
  compressed air cars electric bikes
• Growing demand for public transport
• Non-motorised options more popular
• Changing land use patterns
• urban densification

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Fewer of these...
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... more of these...
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...and perhaps even
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Transport Vulnerabilities

• High dependence on imported fuels road
  transport
• Inadequate public transport
• Aged railways rolling stock
• Geographic distances, stranded townships
  suburban sprawl
• Poverty unemployment
• Taxi industry a potential flashpoint

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Opportunities

• AsgiSA infrastructure programme
• Transnet capex programme
• 2010 World Cup funds
• NATMAP
• New niches to exploit
• electric vehicles
• renewable energy

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Principles for Transport Planning

• Sustainability
• Energy independence
• Improve efficiency conserve
• Prioritise fuel use
• food production distribution
• essential services
• Promote public awareness cooperation
• Manage taxi industry carefully

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Transport Energy Efficiency
Source http//openlearn.open.ac.uk/file.php/1697/
t206b1c01f49.jpg
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Transport Policies

• Reduce road speed limits
• Mandate higher vehicle fuel efficiency
• Improve traffic management
• Expand public transport
• enhance safety security
• Promote non-motorised transport
• cycle lanes, pedestrian walkways, safety
• Ration liquid fuels

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Conclusions

• Peak oil is inevitable imminent
• Energy supply constraints higher fuel prices
  will drive transport options
• on both supply demand sides
• The sooner we prepare, the better well manage
  the transition

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Thank you.