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New Horizons in Search Theory, 4th
Workshop Investigating Hider Theory Introduct
ory Talking Points by Dr Ralph S
Klingbeil Undersea Warfare Analysis Department,
Code 60 Naval Undersea Warfare Center Division
Newport and Operations Department Navy Warfare
Development Command 27 April 2004
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Outline

• Hiders and hiding
• The search and detection problem

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Examples of Hiders and Hiding

• A ballistic missile submarine (SSBN) that does
  not want to be detected while on deterrence
  patrol
• A downed pilot in enemy-controlled territory who
  does not want to be found by the enemy but does
  want to be found by rescue forces
• An embezzler who does not want to be discovered
  for a long time
• An in-country terrorist waiting for orders or
  opportunity to strike within some time duration
• An encrypted electronic message that is perhaps
  buried within a benign or noise transmission
• A pollution event hide who did it and perhaps
  blame someone else

Hider Theory should shed light on what these
examples have in common and what makes them
different.
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Search and Hide

• search The process of attempting to find
  desired targets
• hide To use signature reduction, clutter,
  camouflage, deception, decoys, and evasion to
  thwart search by an opponent

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Some Definitions (DOD/NATO)

• camouflage The use of natural or artificial
  material on personnel, objects, or tactical
  positions with the aim of confusing, misleading,
  or evading the enemy
• deception Those measures designed to mislead
  the enemy by manipulation, distortion, or
  falsification of evidence to induce the enemy to
  react in a manner prejudicial to the enemys
  interests
• evasion The process whereby individuals who are
  isolated in hostile or unfriendly territory avoid
  capture with the goal of successfully returning
  to areas under friendly control
• decoy An imitation in any sense of a person,
  object, or phenomenon which is intended to
  deceive enemy surveillance devices or mislead
  enemy evaluation
• clutter (?Skolnik) The conglomeration of
  unwanted signals received by the searchers
  sensors (from the natural surroundings and sensor
  dependent) and which can be exploited by the
  hider

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Time

• Time is often a key variable the target may not
  need to hide forever
• A submarine goes away when it runs out of
  consumables or its mission ends
• An embezzler might be satisfied with not being
  discovered for a decade
• An old decoded message may not compromise a
  mission

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Outline

• Hiders and hiding
• The search and detection problem

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Detecting/Classifying Contacts
Classical Inference
Moving the threshold generates OC curve
nt
t
PDF
P(Tnt)
P(NTt)
METRIC FOR THE ATTRIBUTE
A locatable object must exhibit characteristics
that allow the searcher to differentiate it from
its surroundings.
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Confusion Matrix for Classification
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Extended Confusion Matrix
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Queueing and Reneging in Search
Probability of Classification PCLASS PACQ
CLASS P(Tt)
PRIORITY
SERVERS
The Searchers Queueing Problem
SERVICED DEPARTURES
ARRIVALS
QUEUE
TOI
Non-TOI
RENEGE
BALK
Entering/Exiting Sensor Coverage - Reneging -
TARGET TRACK
DETECTION RANGE
The hider wants the searcher to be very busy
doing the wrong thing
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Random Search from the Hiders Point of View

• P(T) 1 exp( 2 R V TEFF / A )
• Make detection range R small reduce signatures
• Make searcher reduce speed V due to false contact
  investigations and fear of counterdetection
• Make the search area A as large as possible
• Make effective search time TEFF small compared to
  available search time T
• Expose for short times TEFF TEXP
• Hide amongst false contacts TEFF T / ( 1 FCR
  TINV)

If it were done, when tis done, Then twere well
it were done quickly.
Macbeth Act I, Scene 7
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SSBN-ASW Game
Value of game max(x) min(y) t S xi vi / (1
ai yi) ?i Si Hi / Ai