The Oil Depletion Protocol

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• The Oil Depletion Protocol
• A Plan to Avert Oil Wars, Terrorism, and Economic
  Collapse
• ASPO 5, Pisa Italy
• July 18, 2006
• Richard Heinberg

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Without a Protocol

• Extreme price volatility will make planning and
  investment difficult
• Conflict over remaining oil reserves will hinder
  their development and divert resources from the
  energy transition
• Efforts to produce oil at maximum rates will
  damage reservoirs

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The General Direction

• We need a cooperative agreement to gradually
  reduce oil consumption in order to discourage
  competition, stabilize prices, and protect the
  resource base
• The rate of reduction should be pegged to some
  objective datum so as to avert lengthy
  negotiations

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History of the Oil Depletion Protocol

• Proposed by Colin Campbell at first ASPO
  conference in 2002
• Has been known as Uppsala Protocol and Rimini
  Protocol
• Initiation of the Oil Depletion Protocol Project
  in July, 2006 by Post Carbon Institute

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The Oil Depletion Protocol

• The world and every nation shall aim to reduce
  oil consumption by at least the world depletion
  rate.
• No country shall produce oil at above its present
  depletion rate.
• No country shall import at above the world
  depletion rate.

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• The depletion rate is defined as annual
  production as a percentage of what is left
  (reserves plus yet-to-find).
• The preceding provisions refer to regular
  conventional oilwhich category excludes heavy
  oils with cut-off of 17.5 API, deepwater oil with
  a cut-off of 500 meters, polar oil, gas liquids
  from gas fields, tar sands, oil shale, oil from
  coal, biofuels such as ethanol, etc.

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• Dealing with
• Diminishing Oil
• Options and Strategies

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Suggestions Only

• Energy Develop renewable sources including wind,
  solar, and biomass

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• Agriculture transition from oil-based industrial
  model to more labor-intensive, localized, organic
  model

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Permaculture

• "Consciously designed landscapes that mimic the
  patterns and relationships found in nature, while
  yielding an abundance of food, fiber, and energy
  for provision of local needs"
• Holmgren (2002)

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• Transportation Rail and light railthe best
  long-term options for motorized transport of
  freight and people

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Short-term strategies

• Community Car (communitysolution.org)
• Car co-ops, ride-share, and carpooling
• Community-supported hitchhiking

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Domestic Implementation Rationing

• Some form of rationing is inevitableby price or
  by quota
• Quota rationing works well in case of shortages
  of essential goods
• David Flemings proposal for Tradable Energy
  Quotas (teqs.org)

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• Questions and
• Objections

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• How are the challenges of Peak Oil and Climate
  Change different?

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• How are the challenges of Peak Oil and Climate
  Change different?
• How are they similar?

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• How are the challenges of Peak Oil and Climate
  Change different?
• How are they similar?
• How is the Oil Depletion Protocol different from
  emissions-based protocols (Kyoto)?

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• What incentive would countries have to
  participate? In the carbon reduction context,
  much attention has been paid to finding ways to
  compensate countries to provide them an incentive
  not to develop in a carbon-intensive manner. What
  would be the incentive in this case?

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• Does the Oil Depletion Protocol eliminate the
  need for emissions-based agreements?

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• How could cheating be prevented?

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• How could cheating be prevented?
• How would we know the real reserves, and the real
  import and production figures, of signatory
  nations?

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• What if post-peak declines are greater than 2.6
  per year?

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• What if post-peak declines are greater than 2.6
  per year?
• What if only some countries adopt the Protocol?

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• What if post-peak declines are greater than 2.6
  per year?
• What if only some countries adopt the Protocol?
• If the peak is occurring now, is it too late to
  enact the Protocol?

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• Wouldnt the Protocol violate the rules of the
  World Trade Organization?

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• Wouldnt the Protocol violate the rules of the
  World Trade Organization?
• Wouldnt interference with market forces be
  harmful to the process of economic adaptation?

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• Wouldnt the Protocol violate the rules of the
  World Trade Organization?
• Wouldnt interference with market forces be
  harmful to the process of economic adaptation?
• How would signatory countries actually go about
  reducing imports?

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• If some nations use less oil, wont others simply
  use more?

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• If some nations use less oil, wont others simply
  use more?
• If the Oil Depletion Protocol applies equally to
  all nations, will this be unfair to
  less-industrialized nations that have not
  benefited as much historically from oil
  consumption?

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• How Can the
• Protocol Be Adopted?

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Countries in full or partial de facto compliance
with the Protocol

• Sweden
• Iceland
• Cuba
• Kuwait (?)
• Declining producers (Indonesia, etc.)
• Poor nations unable to afford oil at 70

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Municipal Efforts

• San Francisco, CA
• Sebastopol, CA
• Denver, CO
• Burnaby, BC
• Plymouth, NH
• Portland, OR
• Tompkins County, NY
• Hamilton, ON
• Willits, CA
• Bloomington, IN

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San Francisco Peak Oil Resolution

• acknowledges the unprecedented challenges of
  Peak Oil
• Supports adoption of global Oil Depletion
  Protocol
• to provide a framework of predictability
• Undertaking a city-wide assessment
• Inventory of city activities and associated
  resource requirements, in regards to decreased
  energy availability and increased prices
• urges the Mayor to provide funding and
  directionfor development of a response plan.

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Personal Implementation of the Oil Depletion
Protocol

• Assess current oil consumption gasoline, food,
  plastics
• Plan to reduce the total by 3 per year (change
  your transportation habits now!)
• For most people in industrial countries, food
  accounts for over 30 of petroleum consumption
  to reduce this, eat locally, buy organic, and
  garden!
• Publicize personal and group efforts

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The Oil Depletion Protocol Project

• Post Carbon Institute
• Web site oildepletionprotocol.org
• Staff Karen Webster
• Support from Wallace Global Fund and others
• DVD
• Lobbying effort based on grassroots support

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oildepletionprotocol.org