Title: Emerging Technologies Potential New Terror Threats in the 21st Century
1Emerging Technologies Potential New Terror
Threats in the 21st Century
- Dr. Yair Sharan
- Interdisciplinary Centre for Technology
Forecasting Tel-Aviv University - Sharany_at_post.tau.ac.il
- Third Annual Science and Technology
ConferenceJune 2007, RUSI, Whitehall
ICTAF- Interdisciplinary Center for Technological
Analysis and Forecasting
2ICTAFs - Mission
- To be Israels leading institute in
- Analyses of multidisciplinary processes
- Technology Assessment and Foresight
- Improve decision and policy-making processes
- Harness the knowledge of University personnel
- for the benefit of the economy and society.
Interdisciplinary Center for Technology Analysis
and Forecasting (ICTAF)
3Introduction
- Beside their huge contribution to quality of life
and scientific progress ,new technologies have
intrinsic dangers. - Terrorists might take advantage of these
technologies ,identify new opportunities and Use
them in the future for hostile actions. - Key words technological threats, technology
abuse, disruptive technologies, emerging
technologies, wild cards, structural chemistry,
synthetic biology, data and knowledge control,
threat potential, threat management, threat
perception, grey and green goo, NBIC, converging
technologies.
ICTAF- Interdisciplinary Center for Technological
Analysis and Forecasting
4 Why should we be more worried today?
- New terrorist profile greater number of
potential terrorists and supporters with-high
levels of technical and scientific knowledge
(e.g., engineering students and researchers from
Islamic and third world countries in Western
Academy and Defense connected Industries). - Gap narrowing between Civilian and Military
products/applications. - More potentially dangerous technical information
is becoming available on the net.
ICTAF- Interdisciplinary Center for Technological
Analysis and Forecasting
5 Why should we be more worried today? (Cont)
- Global networks of terror interconnected by
Internet. - Great difficulties in control and prevention of
sensitive knowledge dissemination in free
societies. - Trends of miniaturization and cost reduction of
many military technologies facilitates terrorism
(e.g., easier procurement, theft, concealment). - Public perception of threat posed by new
technologies (grey goo, green goo).
ICTAF- Interdisciplinary Center for Technological
Analysis and Forecasting
6Examples of New Scientific Areas of Research
and Emerging Technologies, Prone to Misuse
- Nanotechnology.
- Biotechnology.
- Robotics mini/micro, robotic toys.
- Communications and Information technology.
- Brain research, cognition, and mind control
Thought Power.
ICTAF- Interdisciplinary Center for Technological
Analysis and Forecasting
7Nanotechnology
- The science and technology of building devices
such as electronic circuits from single atoms and
molecules. - Nanotechnology broadly refers to techniques that
produce or measure features less than 100
nanometers in size this embraces advanced
microfabrication and metrology. - Several technologies converge with
nanotechnology, the most important being
miniaturization of semiconductor structures
driven by progress in microelectronics. More
directly relevant are efforts to extend chemical
synthesis to the construction of larger and more
complex molecular objects. Protein engineering
and supramolecular chemistry are active fields
that exploit weak intermolecular forces to
organize small parts into larger structures.
ICTAF- Interdisciplinary Center for Technological
Analysis and Forecasting
8Nanotechnology
- Nano 1 billionth of meter/10 atoms wide (IBM
spelled in atoms). - Nanotubes/spheres - 100X tensile strength of
steel, 1/6 weight, no friction, store energy. - Faster chips, 1 million x data storage (40 by
11). - Superconducters 100 X efficiency of copper.
- Space elevator 1 meter film of nanotubes to
geosynchronous orbit in 15 yrs. _at_ 10B. - 6000 patents, 1200 ventures.
- From William E. Halal, 2006
Interdisciplinary Center for Technology Analysis
and Forecasting (ICTAF)
9The Worlds Smallest Abacus
width 10 nanometers
made of C60 molecules
nano-engineering, where solid-state physics and
chemistry merge. We may be able to assemble
complex structures from the bottom up, as nature
does, molecule by molecule, and thus break ground
for entirely new fabrication technologies with a
broad range of applications (source IBM
laboratory in Zurich)
ICTAF- Interdisciplinary Center for Technological
Analysis and Forecasting
10Nanotechnology
Functional Materials for operation in extreme
conditions
systems with self multiplication And repairing
capability
Molecular Manipulation for building devices
Nanobots traveling in blood system
Molecular Manipulation for building of new
materials
2020
2025
2010
2015
Interdisciplinary Center for Technology Analysis
and Forecasting (ICTAF)
11Nanotechnology Potential Terror Threats
- High power new explosives and propellants
- MOAB (Mother Of All Bombs) superthermites
that combine nanometals with metal oxides that
can greatly improve output. - Methal less weapons.
- Small missiles.
- New highly toxic compounds
- - Human toxicity (respiratory and food
exposures). - - Environmental long term pollution.
Interdisciplinary Center for Technology Analysis
and Forecasting (ICTAF)
12Nanotechnology
Interdisciplinary Center for Technology Analysis
and Forecasting (ICTAF)
13Biotechnology
- Use of microorganisms, such as bacteria or yeasts
or biological substances such as enzymes to
perform specific industrial or manufacturing
processes. - Applications include the production of certain
drugs, synthetic hormones, and the use of
genetically altered bacteria, and recombinant
deoxyribonucleic acid (DNA) technology to
generate unique organisms with new traits or
organisms that have the potential to produce
specific products.
Interdisciplinary Center for Technology Analysis
and Forecasting (ICTAF)
14Biotechnology Potential Terror Threats
- Creation/ Purchase of dangerous biologic warfare
agents (microbes, viruses, and toxins) or
building blocks, using commercial/ scientific
products available - Creation of new biological and nano-toxins, using
synthetic biology, and structural chemistry
methods
Interdisciplinary Center for Technology Analysis
and Forecasting (ICTAF)
15Robotics
Widespread use of unmanned vehicles
Robots with self decision capability under
conditions of uncertainty
Smart robots for variety of services
Robots remotely operated in risky areas
2015
2005
2010
Interdisciplinary Center for Technology Analysis
and Forecasting (ICTAF)
16 Robotics mini/micro Potential Terror Threats
- The current achievements in Robotics (RD and
production) smarter, smaller and cheaper robots
increase the danger that such products will
become available (buying or theft) to terrorists
Interdisciplinary Center for Technology Analysis
and Forecasting (ICTAF)
17Robotics Radio-Controlled Mini Toys - Potential
Terror Threats
- Possible use of robotic toys as platforms to HED
(high explosive device) or other terror devices
(chemical, radiological, biological) for
attacking defended targets, without exposing
terrorists to danger. (Jurgen Altmann, Routledge,
2006)
Interdisciplinary Center for Technology Analysis
and Forecasting (ICTAF)
18Information and Communication
Bio-Computers
Automatic Systems for security and surveillance
Automatic translation in telephone system
Automatic Anti-Viral vaccination
Automatic conversion of Natural (Hebrew)Speech
into text
Highly reliable network systems
Widespread use of electronic forms
2005
2009
2011
2015
2007
2013
Interdisciplinary Center for Technology Analysis
and Forecasting (ICTAF)
19 Communications and Information Examples of
Potential Terror Threats
- Attacks on air navigation facilities in bad
visibility conditions. - Targeted attacks by HED (High Explosive Device)
and Electronic warfare against critical civilian
communication infrastructures (for example,
flight control facilities at civilian airports at
peak traffic hours).
Interdisciplinary Center for Technology Analysis
and Forecasting (ICTAF)
20 Thought Power Soft Applications
- Recruitment of large numbers of suicidal
candidates - Human Bombs by Mind Control
Technologies - Indoctrination using new technologies of
learning and mind control (e.g., Virtual Reality,
Hypnosis). - Combination of the above with new psychological
drugs (developed for medical treatment of mental
illness).
Interdisciplinary Center for Technology Analysis
and Forecasting (ICTAF)
21 Thought Power Applications Hard Technologies)
- Implanted electrodes detect brain signals.
- Wireless control of PC, machines, Communications.
- Chips implanted in 1 M dogs and cats, 1000
people Prof. Warwick experiments (chip implant
technologies) - Remote control of weapons? Terrorists?
- Electronic eyes, hearing, - bionic person
- Artificial limbs controlled by thought
- Source William E. Halal, 2006
ICTAF- Interdisciplinary Center for Technological
Analysis and Forecasting
22Potential Threatening new Technologies
Applications (Sources Altman et al, Sharan et
al)
ICTAF- Interdisciplinary Center for Technological
Analysis and Forecasting
23Potential Threatening new Technologies
Applications
ICTAF- Interdisciplinary Center for Technological
Analysis and Forecasting
24Potential Threatening new Technologies
Applications
ICTAF- Interdisciplinary Center for Technological
Analysis and Forecasting
25Converging Technologies (NBIC)
Interdisciplinary Center for Technology Analysis
and Forecasting (ICTAF)
26Bio-nano-info
Interfaces between neural information and
artificial organs (Brain machine Interface)
Micromachines traveling inside organisms
Architecture for bio-computers
Bio-Chips for use in Electronic circuits
Remote surgery based on virtual reality
Identification of multiple genes related to
psychiatric disorders
Anti-Viral drugs
Smart cards with personal medical data (in Israel)
Widespread use of Bioinformatics
2005
2010
2015
Interdisciplinary Center for Technology Analysis
and Forecasting (ICTAF)
27 Beginnings
- Nanotechnology, robotics, cognition, information
technology are leading us to a new world. - New technologies can better life in the future,
but - Terrorists can and might use the technology to
the detriment of society - It is our task to safeguard the new technologies
and control proliferation.
Interdisciplinary Center for Technology Analysis
and Forecasting (ICTAF)
28Thanks to my collegues Dr. Jacob Negreanu, Dr.
Aharon Hauptman and Dr. Richard Small. And thank
you for your attention
Interdisciplinary Center for Technology Analysis
and Forecasting (ICTAF)