VLJ Summit

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VLJ Summit

• Session IV
• Flying VLJs The Reality

Perceived Challenges and the Reality - VLJs and
Safety
Dubai 24 April 2007
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Very Light Jets Impact on Future Safety
Performance
There are many questions

• How should VLJs be viewed?
• Are VLJs on the continuum of todays products, or
  a revolutionary force?
• Who is the target market for VLJs and how well
  will VLJs meet their needs?
• To owner/pilots?
• To business aviation?
• To new services, such as high-density air taxi?
• What threat or opportunity do VLJs pose to the
  community?
• What are the unique, operator focused safety
  opportunities for the Industry, given the near
  term availability, affordability, and potential
  rapid growth of owner flown turbine powered
  aircraft?

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VLJs are viewed as a revolutionary new segment
inprivate aviation and should be thought of in
2 distinct classes
What Are Very Light Jets?

• Technically Jet-powered aircraft under 10,000
  pounds maximum takeoff weight (entry and light
  business jets are 12,000-18,000 lbs. MTOW)
• Practical Capability Typically 4 passengers in
  seating closer to a sedan than a business jet,
  with typical ranges of 1,000 to 1,300 nautical
  miles
• The View Marketed as a revolutionary opportunity
  to open the private jet market to a broad new
  customer segment and new services, such as
  walk-up air taxi networks
• Range of Products While they are generally
  referred to as a single category, there are
  really two different classes

High Very Light Jets HVLJ
Low Very Light Jets LVLJ
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Purchasers typically trade price against comfort,
speed, payload and range, and put different
values to each specification
A wide range of specs exist but manufacturers
make similar trades in designing aircraft
seeking to create the most marketable aircraft
Weight/Payload
Ferry Range
Cabin Comfort
Speed
Source Manufacturer websites, Conklin de
Decker, SHE Research
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A composite performance index seeks to compare
aircraft with diverse specifications, and is
strongly correlated to price
Though good for top-level analysis, buyers
require aircraft with certain capabilities,
making the index less useful for each purchase
decision
Some parameters are too new to judge.
Price(Millions)
Purchase Price vs. Performance Index

• Other Influencing Parameters
• Operating costs
• OEM and model brand
• Safety reputation
• Residual value performance
• Cabin fitting
• Cockpit avionics
• Takeoff and landing length
• Payload
• Pressurized baggage
• Cabin height
• Lavatory presence
• Utility for cargo medevac
• Maximum ceiling

Composite PerformanceIndex
Source SHE Analysis
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Industry forecasts for VLJ sales have suggested
the segment will be the largest component of the
private jet market, by unit
Annual Business Jet Delivery Forecasts(Forecast
Period)
Annual Deliveries
Average annual forecast shown production
generally expected to be higher in later years
741
Long-Range
Heavy
Average Forecast 465 / year
Super-Mid
Medium
Total 741
Light
VLJ Forecasts
Other Business Jets
Note Honeywell forecast excludes potential
demand from air taxis Source Public forecasts,
deliveries from ACAS.
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The VLJ market segment touches overlapping
customer segments

• New air taxi ventures planned for VLJs are
  targeted toward cost-conscious businesspeople who
  might augment commercial travel with air taxi
  services for specific routes several recent
  start-ups have demonstrated market potential with
  alternate aircraft
• More traditional business users typically fly
  under a corporate umbrella for at least some of
  their hours, thereby justifying a portion of
  their fixed costs
• Focus on comfort and safety demanding two-pilot
  operation
• Capacity and spaciousness are important
• Owner-pilots are those that generally use their
  aircraft for effective business use, but also as
  a hobby
• Cost focus accepting single-pilot operation
• VLJs are a trade-up from piston aircraft much
  like turboprop aircraft are today.

Air Taxi
Business Aviation
Owner-Pilot
This segment represents the greatest potential
threat to VLJ safety performance
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VLJs and the Single Pilot
Single-pilot operation of VLJs will require
additional training for all pilots, but
particularly those with only piston experience

• For these pilots, flying is not usually job one
  
• Purpose of the flight is usually not the flight
• Schedule pressure and time demands on this group
  are usually severe
• These individuals usually wear all the hats
  company owner, deal maker, director of
  operations, chief pilot, scheduler, dispatch,
  weather and safety officer
• Airspace complexities coupled with increased
  aircraft performance contribute to create a high
  workload environment
• Required / available technology may mask
  potential airmanship issues

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VLJs and the Single Pilot - Continued

• These pilots may have only a working knowledge of
  available cockpit technology
• Ingrained operational mindsets may preclude
  appropriate use of cockpit technology
• Operations (area, time, duration, mission
  profile) are unrestricted and may be unfamiliar
  or beyond the pilots abilities
• Initial pilot training quality and intensity
  varies
• Recurrent pilot training quality and intensity
  varies
• There may be training voids relative to
  sophistication of the proposed equipment high
  altitude weather, physiology, and aerodynamics
• Existing turbojet training may assume an
  otherwise qualified professional pilot

WOW Lots of Challenges!
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VLJs require more pilot training than pistons,
and so VLJ manufacturers are establishing
substantial training programs
Single-pilot operation of VLJs will require
additional training for all pilots, but
particularly those with only piston experience

• NBAA assembled Training Guidelines for VLJs in
  cooperation with manufacturers, insurance
  companies, training firms, and the FAA
• Prerequisites for training are a private pilot
  license, multi-engine rating, and instrument
  rating
• Guidelines are particularly focused on using the
  relatively advanced avionics in VLJ cockpits
• Recurrent training amounts to 4 day per year,
  including 10 hours in the classroom and 12 hours
  in the simulator
• Pilots must have mentors after the completion
  of training in order to ensure that they have
  acquired the necessary skills for VLJ operation
  the time spent with the mentor is at the
  discretion of the insurer, but NBAA has provided
  recommendations ranging from 25 hours for other
  jet aircraft pilots to 100 hours for pilots of
  single-piston aircraft

• Eclipse 500 owners will be provided with pilot
  training through an affiliation with United
  Airlines, with classroom and simulator training
• Cessna is developing its training program through
  renowned FlightSafety International to ease the
  transition from single or multi-engine propeller
  driven aircraft.

Manufacturers have recognized the additional
requirements that will be needed and are setting
up programs to facilitate training
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For corporate aviation, safety concerns will
prompt two-pilot operations and additional
training that must be overcome
Still, the two in-production light jets designed
for single-pilot operations have garnered a 20
share of recent light jets deliveries

• Most business aviation customers insist on
  two-pilot operation to improve safety and peace
  of mind
• Fractional/Charter Operators have yet to embrace
  single pilot operations could be because of
  insurance pressure or Operators belief that 2
  are better than 1 to ensure safety.
• Since September 11th, corporate policies that
  steer senior executives toward private aviation
  have often been couched in terms of safety
  against terrorism. These decision-makers will
  not be taking chances
• Aviation liability insurance strongly favors
  two-pilot operation, charging roughly a 4x
  premium for single-pilot operation

• The FAA and other policymakers have also strongly
  favored two-pilot operation, but established
  guidelines for single-pilot training and
  certification
• The Premier and CJ1, which have been certified
  and are typically configured for just 1 pilot,
  have amassed
• 15-20 of recent light jet deliveries,
• equating to 50-60 deliveries per year,
• and with a current backlogs of 180 jets

Technology can enable a greater impact on safety!
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Optimism Tempered by History
The Flight Safety Foundation has reported in its
April 2007 Journal AeroSafety World

• There will be a learning curve (or accident
  history) with the VLJ as information is
  accumulated by pilots, operators and regulators
• Pilot training and the integration or linking to
  the available technology will help minimize the
  learning curve
• The partnerships developing between manufacturers
  and training vendors is very positive
• Other programs, like mentoring, will introduce
  new pilots to the technology with expert
  guidance and quickly accumulated experience

• Reducing paperwork, paper and decision making in
  the cockpit will reduce fatigue and confusion
• Some systems, dubbed the Virtual Cockpit, are
  aimed at just that, making decisions easier
• Some may argue, an over-reliance on technology is
  a breeding ground for potential accidents
• Excessive confidence needs to be tempered with
  well trained skills, a reliance on airmanship,
  and most importantly, a respect for the technology

Technology, however, cannot be solely relied upon
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Accident Phases of Flight Business
Aviation1991 - 2002
Enhanced Performance Requires Better Cockpit
Planning
Source Flight Safety Foundation
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Causes of Approach and Landing Accidents1991 -
2002
Managing available performance and decision making
Source Flight Safety Foundation
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Statistical Review

• Nonprofessionally flown "business" operators are
  10 times more likely to have an accident than
  professionally flown "corporate" operators, and
  7.5 times more likely to have a fatal accident
• (Based on a 13 year average Business
  (Nonprofessional) accident rate per 100,000 hours
  flown of 2.0223 and fatal accident rate of
  0.5531, versus Corporate/Executive (Professional)
  accident rate of 0.1942 and fatal accident rate
  of 0.0732)
• Over the past 10 years, nonprofessionals flying
  turbojet aircraft have had almost twice the
  number of fatal accidents as the professionals,
  and suffered twice the number of fatalities
• (Accident Years 1992 2001 Business 13 fatal
  accidents, 43 fatalities, versus
  Corporate/Executive 7 fatal accidents, 22
  fatalities)
• A single pilot has a 40 greater chance of having
  an accident than a two pilot crew (the 5 year
  average assigns a 50 greater chance)
• (10 year average U.S. Turboprop Aircraft All
  Operations, Accident Years 1992 2001)
• Source Breiling Associates Annual Turbine
  Aircraft Accident Review for Underwriters
  Volumes 1992 2001

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Statistical Conclusions

• To achieve Corporate/Executive accident rate
  levels (the best of any group measured), Business
  operations need to be conducted, and owner pilots
  need to perform, just like the professionals
• This means more attention to quality training and
  systems understanding
• Two pilots are 4 to 5 times better than one.
  Thats the Stats!
• For VLJs In Single Pilot Configuration. A much
  greater emphasis on
• training and the thorough integration of
  available technology
• cockpit planning and management and
• understanding the technology behind the flat
  panel.

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Summary

• For VLJ activities within the Region, this Summit
  and those sponsored by the Middle East Business
  Aviation Association are the best means of
  educating potential owners/operators and for
• Raising Awareness
• Identifying Resources
• Providing an open forum for sharing and
  networking.

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Thank You