Sun

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Sun Solar System ConnectionsFoundation Roadmap

• Status Report
• March 15 2005
• J. Todd Hoeksema Team

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SSSC Foundation Roadmap

• The bottom line
• Our society can no longer function efficiently
  without space weather understanding
• Human beings can not work safely and effectively
  outside low Earth orbit without space weather
  forecasts
• Predictive space weather capability requires
  basic knowledge we do not have

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A few Space Weather Effects
Earth-Space Activities... disrupted by solar and
geomagnetic events Satellite operations
Navigation Space Shuttle and Space Station
activities High-altitude polar flights Electric
power distribution Long-line telephone
communication HF radio communication Pipeline
operations Geophysical exploration Satellite
reliability Going to Moon or Mars
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SSSC Foundation RoadmapSpace Weather Effects
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SSSC Foundation RoadmapRadiation Effects

• Needs to be developed

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Oct/Nov 2003 Superstorms
Space Storms at Earth
Disturbed Mars-Space Atmospheric Loss
Dangerous Radiation
Space Storms at the Outer Planets
Disturbed Upper Atmosphere
Solar System Blast Wave
LESSONS LEARNED FROM THE 2003 SUPERSTORMS A
fleet of earth-orbiting and interplanetary
spacecraft with distinctly different missions
joined together in late October 2003 as one
great observatory to provide a first-ever view
of a space weather front moving through the solar
system from its source on the suns surface to
space storms triggered at Earth, Mars, Jupiter
and Saturn and finally to its encounter with the
outer boundary of the heliosphere many months
later. This front was created by a series of
strong solar eruptive events from three active
regions on the Sun. Surprises lie in the
inhomogeneity of the front propagation and of the
energetic solar particles even at locations in
close proximity thus highlighting the
importance of global propagation, energization
and expansion in local space weather conditions
and the difficulties in predicting such
conditions for future explorers. The space
weather front elicited different responses from
planets protected with a magnetosphere and those
without protection. At Mars,in the absence of a
strong global magnetic field, high solar wind
dynamic pressure pushed in the solar wind -
ionosphere boundary to low altitudes allowing
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SSSC FRMHalloween 2003
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SSSC Foundation RoadmapEnabling Exploration

• Spacecraft Design Requirements
• Space Operations information
• Solar System wide space weather prediction

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SSSC Foundation RoadmapSpace Weather Prediction
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SSSC Foundation RoadmapImportant Science

• Reconnection
• Particle Acceleration
• Magnetic Dynamo
• Global Change

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SSSC Foundation RoadmapEnabling Exploration

• Spacecraft Design Requirements
• Space Operations information
• Solar System wide space weather prediction

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SSSC Foundation RoadmapExciting Science
Exploration

• Visit the solar corona
• Probe the interstellar medium
• Investigate planetary habitability

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SSSC Foundation RoadmapScience in the Sweet Spot

• Science that is Vital, Compelling Urgent

Science Addressing National Objectives
Science Flowing From Exploration
Science in the Sweet Spot
Science That Transforms Knowledge
Science Enabling Exploration
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SSSC Foundation RoadmapObjectives
SSSC Science Exploration Objective F Opening
the Frontier to Space Environment
Prediction Understand the fundamental physical
processes of the space environment from the Sun
to Earth, to other planets, and beyond to the
interstellar medium. SSSC Science Exploration
Objective H Understanding the Nature of Our Home
in Space Understand how society, technological
systems, and the habitability of planets are
affected by the variable space environment. SSSC
Science Exploration Objective J Safeguarding
Our Outbound Journey Maximize the productivity
and safety of human and robotic explorers by
developing predictive capability for the extreme
and dynamic conditions in space.
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SSSC Foundation RoadmapOpening the Frontier to
Space Environment Prediction

• SSSC Science Exploration Objective F
• Opening the Frontier to Space Environment
  Prediction
• Understand the fundamental physical processes of
  the space environment from the Sun to Earth, to
  other planets, and beyond to the interstellar
  medium.
• F.1 Understand magnetic reconnection as revealed
  in solar flares, coronal mass ejections, and
  geospace storms.
• F.2 Understand the plasma processes that
  accelerate and transport particles
• F.3 Understand How Nonlinear Interactions
  Transfer Energy and Momentum Within Planetary
  Upper Atmospheres.
• F.4 Determine how solar and planetary magnetic
  dynamos are created and why they vary.
• F.5 Understand the role of cross-scale coupling
  in creating plasma boundaries and the
  significance of boundaries in controlling
  physical processes.

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SSSC Foundation RoadmapUnderstanding the Nature
of our Home in Space

• SSSC Science Exploration Objective H
• Understanding the Nature of Our Home in Space
• Understand how society, technological systems,
  and the habitability of planets are affected by
  the variable space environment.
• H.1 Understand the causes and subsequent
  evolution of solar activity that affects Earths
  space climate and environment
• H.2 Determine changes in the Earths
  magnetosphere, ionosphere, and upper atmosphere
  to enable specification, prediction, and
  mitigation of their effects
• H.3 Understanding the role of the Sun as an
  energy source to the Earths atmosphere, and in
  particular the role of solar variability in
  driving change.
• H.4 Apply our understanding of space plasma
  physics to the role of stellar activity and
  magnetic shielding in planetary system evolution
  and habitability

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SSSC Foundation RoadmapSafeguarding Our Outbound
Journey

• SSSC Science Exploration Objective J
• Safeguarding Our Outbound Journey
• Maximize the productivity and safety of human and
  robotic explorers by developing predictive
  capability for the extreme and dynamic conditions
  in space.
• J.1 Characterize the variability, extremes, and
  boundary conditions of the space environments
  that will be encountered by human and robotic
  explorers.
• J.2 Develop the capability to predict the origin
  and onset of solar activity and disturbances
  associated with potentially hazardous space
  weather events..
• J.3 Develop the capability to predict the
  propagation and evolution of solar disturbances
  (including shocks, and the acceleration and
  transport of energetic particles from solar,
  interplanetary, and galactic sources) to enable
  safe travel for human and robotic explorers.
• J.4 Understand and characterize the space weather
  effects on and within planetary environments to
  minimize risk in exploration activities.

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SSSC Foundation RoadmapA New Science
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SSSC Foundation RoadmapPredictive Requirements

• Geo- planetary space storms
• X-rays/EUV events
• Energetic particle events
• CMEs heliospheric storms
• Cosmic ray modulation
• Irradiance variations

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SSSC Foundation RoadmapPriorities
Implementation

• NOT YET COMPLETED

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SSSC Foundation RoadmapDiscovery Schedule

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SSSC Foundation RoadmapStrategic Elements

• Current thinking
• Implement the program currently underway
• Use strategic lines to address key problems
• Emphasize need for the Explorer LCAS programs
• Evolve the SSSC Great Observatory
• Consider new initiatives for new objectives
• Develop Analysis, Modeling Forecast Tools
• Focus Technology development
• Maintain Human Resources

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SSSC - Exploration

• Exploration encompasses both new locations and
  new understanding
• Scientific and Technical progress go hand in hand
• SSSC already provides knowledge essential for
  safe and productive Exploration
• SSSC already provides transformational scientific
  knowledge of the universe

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SSSC Foundation RoadmapOur Great Observatory

• Missions in the extended operations become
  something new - part of a Great Observatory
  that is more than the sum of its parts
• The widely distributed fleet of SSSC spacecraft,
  coupled with data analysis and modeling, provide
  a remarkable view of solar system events
• The SSSC great observatory is constantly being
  renewed, upgraded, and refocused
• The great observatory addresses all three SSSC
  objectives

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SSSC Foundation RoadmapExplorers, STP, LWS

• The RM Team has only begun to discuss
  implementation. Current SSSC programs will
  certainly be elements of the continued program.
• EXPLORERs are crucial to SSSC advance they
  augment the strategic lines. Competitive
  selection of the most exciting current science.
  Provides decision points for pathways.
• STPs address strategic objectives that
  absolutely require a larger investment to
  successfully address fundamental questions
  required for progress in broader areas.
• LWS addresses questions of direct relevance to
  life and society. LWS missions focus on
  understanding the complex systems, building on
  STP results. LWS missions may lead to
  operational missions.

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SSSC Foundation RoadmapInfrastructure

• Productivity depends on a healthy science
  community infrastructure
• SSSC relies on SRT, GI, Theory, LWS TRT to
  analyze data and lead future developments
• Computing, Modeling, Assimilation, and
  Visualization
• Combining data from multiple sources Virtual
  Observatories
• Interpretation of sparse measurements
• Collaboration with other agencies

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SSSC Foundation RoadmapLow Cost Access to Space

• Some exciting SSSC science can only be done in
  the LCAS program
• New opportunities can be realized soon
• Instrument development, reduction of program risk
  are important benefits
• Rapid response to evolving needs
• Training of future observers, PIs, engineers

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SSSC Foundation RoadmapPartnerships

• Multiple partnerships exist at various levels
• International Living With a Star (ILWS)
• Exploration missions and support of VSE
• Explorers, New Millennium, Technology
• Planetary missions Mars, planets, comets,
  moons, etc.
• Astrophysics stars, ISM, planetary systems
• Climate variability, weather effects, modeling,
  visualization
• Europe, Canada, Japan, Russia
• DOE, DOD, NOAA, NSF

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SSSC Foundation RoadmapScience Achievements

• Helioseismology Solar Far Side, Sunspots,
  Dynamo
• Coronal Loop Dynamics
• CME Origin, Evolution and Propagation
• Flare energy release
• Solar Particle Acceleration
• Particle Acceleration in the Heliosphere

• Heliospheric Boundary Encounters
• Interstellar Particle Observations
• Magnetic Reconnection
• Particle Acceleration in the Magnetosphere
• Parallel Electric Fields in the Auroral Region
• ENA Imaging of trapped particles Earth Saturn

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SSSC Foundation RoadmapTechnology

• Enabling high delta-V propulsion
• Enabling the development of compact low-cost
  spacecraft
• Enabling the visualization, analysis and modeling
  of solar system plasmas
• Enabling the development of the next generation
  of SSSC instrumentation
• Enabling the return of large data sets from
  throughout the solar system

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SSSC Foundation RoadmapEducation Public
Outreach

• Many successful efforts currently underway
• Evolving to more uniform NASA format
• SSSC effort emphasizes unique content
• Coordinate formal and informal programs
• Integrate SESD content into curriculum
• Need more centralized outreach to educational
  system

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SSSC Foundation RoadmapExternal Factors

• Implementation has been left for future meetings,
  but important external factors that limit our
  programs are already apparent.
• Access to affordable launch capability of
  appropriate size
• Public Trust and Risk Tolerance at NASA
• National Security Working with International
  Partners

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SSSC Foundation Roadmap

• The bottom line
• Our society can no longer function efficiently
  without space weather understanding
• Human beings can not work safely and effectively
  outside low Earth orbit without space weather
  forecasts
• Predictive space weather capability requires
  basic knowledge we do not have

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SSSC Backup Charts

• Backup Charts

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SSSC Foundation Roadmap Information

• Important documents for the RM effort are
  available at several web sites.
• http//sec.gsfc.nasa.gov/roadmap for general
  information
• http//sun.stanford.edu/roadmap for working
  documents

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NASA Strategic Objective 15
Explore the Sun-Earth system to understand the
Sun and its effects on Earth, the solar system,
and the space environmental conditions that will
be experienced by human explorers, and
demonstrate technologies that can improve future
operational systems.
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Sun Solar System Connections Science
Exploration Objectives

• Understand the fundamental physical processes
  important in space from the Sun to Earth, to
  other planets, and beyond to the interstellar
  medium.
• Maximize productivity and safety of human and
  robotic explorers by developing predictive
  capability for the extreme and dynamic conditions
  in space.
• Understand how society, technological systems,
  and the habitability of planets are affected by
  the variable space environment.

• Explore the Sun-Earth system to understand the
  Sun and its effects on Earth, the solar system,
• and the space environmental conditions that will
  be experienced by human explorers, and
• demonstrate technologies that can improve future
  operational systems.

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SSSC Foundation RoadmapActivities

• Schedule
• Roadmap kickoff with SECAS, approach,
  guidelines Mar. 10-11, 2004
• Roadmap plans, schedule reviewed at HQ/OSS Apr.
  2004
• SECAS, legacy RM strategy, charge to
  committee Jul. 26-27, 04
• NRC draft report - update to decadal
  survey Sep, 2004
• Solar Sail technology workshop Sep. 28-29,
  2004
• Roadmap team meeting 1 Oct. 5-6, 2004
• Roadmap activity review at SECAS Nov. 3-5,
  2004
• Community-led imaging technology workshop Nov.
  9-10, 2004
• Community-wide legacy roadmap workshop Nov.
  16-17, 2004
• Roadmap team meeting 2 Nov. 18-19, 2004
• Roadmap team meeting 3 Jan. 19-21, 2005
• Roadmap team meeting 4 Mar. 17-18, 2005

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SSSC Changes from 2002

• 2005
• Understand the fundamental physical processes
  important in space from the Sun to Earth, to
  other planets, and beyond to the interstellar
  medium.
• Maximize productivity and safety of human and
  robotic explorers by developing predictive
  capability for the extreme and dynamic conditions
  in space.
• Understand how society, technological systems,
  and the habitability of planets are affected by
  the variable space environment.

• 2003
• Understand the Sun, helio-sphere, and planetary
  environments as a single connected system.
• Understand the changing flow of energy and matter
  through-out the Sun, heliosphere, and planetary
  environments.
• Explore the fundamental physical processes of
  space plasma systems.
• Define the origins and societal impacts of
  variability in the Sun-Earth connection.

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Orbit Insertion, Descent and Landing at Mars