Alan Forster Shell WindEnergy

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Alan ForsterShell WindEnergy

• LSU Alternative Energy Conference

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Agenda

• New energy drivers
• Industry overview
• Shell Renewables
• Carbon Management
• The solution?

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Agenda

• New energy drivers
• Industry overview
• Shell Renewables
• Carbon Management
• The solution?

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Renewables drivers are increasing
1970s Oil Shocks Air quality RD Limited
Source
Today Energy Security Climate change
Deployment Personal choice

• Driver
• Security of supply
• Environmental
• Technology dev
• Market structure

gt Most OECD some non OECD countries have set
RE targets
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Energy Independence Oil and gas import
dependence will increase
Oil Import dependence
Gas Import dependence
100
100
80
80
60
60
40
40
20
20
0
0
OECD Europe
OECD North America
OECD Europe
OECD North America
Source World Energy Outlook 2004, IEA
gt Renewable energy is largely indigenous
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Renewables drivers are increasing
1970s Oil Shocks Air quality RD Limited Source
Today Energy Independence Climate change
Deployment Personal choice

• Driver
• Security of supply
• Environmental
• Technology dev
• Market structure

gt Most OECD some non OECD countries have set
RE targets
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Environmental drivers

• Debate is drawing to close, even in the U.S.
• Science will become irrelevant perception is
  reality
• Cost of doing nothing greater than cost of
  action e.g. Kyoto
• Popular pressure will drive policy
• Public tone of White House has already changed
  e.g. Energy Hog campaign

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Renewables are not the only solution to these
drivers

• Others include
• Carbon Sequestration
• Energy Efficiency
• Fuel switching (e.g. Coal to gas, coal/gas to
  nuclear)
• Clean hydrocarbons
• Renewables are the solution of choice for those
  countries with either a major indigenous
  renewable resource, firm social/political will,
  or because a market support framework has created
  an industry

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Agenda

• New energy drivers
• Industry overview
• Shell Renewables
• Carbon Management
• The solution?

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Faster growth than conventional energy...
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Continued strong growth ahead
Solar PV
Wind
Biomass
Solar Thermal
Geothermal
Biofuels
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
Projected growth 2000 - 2010 (pa)
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A small but growing share of primary energy
Renewables 1100TWh/year
Total primary energy114000TWh/year
Gas
Wind
Hydro
Solarthermal
Renewables
Nuclear
Bio-mass
Oil
Geo-thermal
Coal
Biofuels
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The Narrowing Band U.S. Generation Costs,
19802004
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Agenda

• New energy drivers
• Industry overview
• Shell Renewables
• Carbon Management
• The solution?

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Carbon constrained futures
Carbon emissions
Energy system mix
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A global presence

• Renewables Hydrogen
• 1,400 employees
• 75 Countries
• Shell new energy portfolio also includes Biofuels

Wind Parks
Solar Manufacturing
Solar Marketing
Hydrogen lighthouse projects
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Shell WindEnergy Inc.
Rock River, 50MW
Brazos, 160MW
Whitewater Hill, Calif. 61MW
Cabazon, Calif. 41MW
White Deer, 80MW
Top of Iowa, 80MW
Colorado Green, 162MW

• Shell WindEnergy Inc owns/operates 634 MW
  (gross)
• Supplies 2TWh of emission-free electricity
  equivalent to 90 of the residential electrical
  demand of Wyoming.

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Solar PV mainly crystalline today
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Future rests with other technologies CIS
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Hydrogen how long is the road to
competitiveness?
1200
System costs /kW
250
Stack costs
200
Total Electric propulsion system
ICE competitive level
150
100
H2 storage
50
Total Balance of Plant
0
100
500
10K
30K
5000K
500K
Number of vehicles per year
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Shell is putting theory into practice
In safe operation for more than a year
Planned for 06
Los Angeles
Washington D.C.
Planned for 06
New York State
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Agenda

• New energy drivers
• Industry overview
• Shell Renewables
• Carbon Management
• The solution?

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There needs to be a steady Migration Pathway to
CO2-Free H2
CO2 Emissions
1000000s
H2 from fossil feedstock w/ CO2 Capture Storage
H2 from existing SMR
H2 from Renewables
H2 Production (t/d)
H2 Ren.
H2CCS
H2 CO2
100s
lt 10 years 10-30
years gt30-50
years
Time from now
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Carbon Management, A license for growth
trading
sequestration
renewables
ecbm
alternatives
efficiency
It is all about having the experience skills
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Managing our growing carbon footprint

• Economics of sequestration dont add up - UNLESS
  you view it as an enabler for growth
• No sequestration no chance to exploit
  unconventionals/coal
• Geological sequestration is possible without
  technology advances

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Managing our growing carbon footprint

• Proving safe storage is the challenge
• Governments needs to clarify legal liabilities
  wrt storage
• Public understanding is low NGOs are ready to
  fill the gap if we dont
• Its time to get moving

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Clean Power, C02 sequestration - Miller, Scotland
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Agenda

• New energy drivers
• Industry overview
• Shell Renewables
• Carbon Management
• The solution?

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A Portfolio enabled by technology
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Shell supplies 10 of the worlds transport
fuelswith many delivery options
Energy Sources Energy Carrier
drive-train options
Liquid Fuels
Oil
Conventional advanced biofuels
Conventional ICE
Synthetic fuels
Gas
Fischer Tropsch
Coal
Syngas CO, H2
Partial Oxidation
Hybrid diesel
Biomass
CCGT
Solar
Electricity
Plug-In hybrid diesel/HCCI
Wind
Hydro
Shift Reaction
Nuclear
Electric Vehicle
Hydrogen
Electrolysis
FCV
177
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The solution is the energy mix

• There is no single solution diversity of
  energy sources will increase, including other new
  energies like Hydrogen
• Renewables will be part of the solution costs
  will decrease, but stability, scale and new fast
  growth markets will determine pace of
  competitiveness
• All choices (including nuclear) need time to
  build
• So the time to make decisions is nownot only for
  new renewables, but also traditional fuels.

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