ConcordKannapolis Interbasin Transfer IBT: Supplement 2 Why FEIS Earns a Failing Grade

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Concord-Kannapolis Interbasin Transfer (IBT)
Supplement 2Why FEIS Earns a Failing Grade
August 2006

• George Johnson
• Professor Of Operations
• Management, Retired, RIT

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Professor gives C-K IBT Petition/FEIS Failing
Grade

• Overlooked critical factor
• Unrealistic assumptions
• Inaccurate forecasts
• Data input/conversion errors
• Questionable model validity
• Misinterpreted results
• Encourages waste

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Failing Grade, cont.

• Overlooked critical factor
• Yadkin-Pee Dee basin has almost twice the natural
  surface water supply
• per person as
• the Catawba

4
Failing Grade, cont.

• Unrealistic assumptions, e.g.,
• Future weather patterns will repeat the past
• Duke Low Inflow Protocol (LIP) drought rules will
  be effective Dr. Robert Fearn
• Whats the hurry?
• Full quantity not needed until 2035
• Duke relicensing conditions for water releases
  and LIP wont be known until at least 2008

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Failing Grade, cont.

• Inaccurate forecasts
• C-K water demands are overestimated Dr.
  Robert Long
• Water use per person (15 too high)
• Population growth rate (12-16 too high)

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Failing Grade, cont.

• Inaccurate forecasts, cont.
• Request is 50 higher than modeled water demand
  in 2038
• Requesting 22 MGD Average
• Modeled 15 MGD Average
• Under estimates impact on Catawba

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Failing Grade, cont.

• Data input/conversion errors
• Extra 14 MGD included in initial modeling
• Data conversion errors understated IBT demand by
  80
• Vastly under estimates impact on Catawba

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Failing Grade, cont.

• Validity of computer model
• Modeled drought conditions unrealistic conflict
  with recent experience
• Currently in Stage 1 drought
• Duke voluntarily implemented proposed LIP
• Most water customers along Catawba did not comply
  with request to implement their drought response
  plans

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Failing Grade, cont.

• Misinterpretation of results
• Use of averages hides small changes
• Simulated lake levels hover dangerously close to
  1192 (Lake James critical level for access to
  lake)

• Frequent lake closings discourage public
• recreation and undermine lakes economic role

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Failing Grade, cont.

• Misinterpretation of results, cont.
• Illogical conclusion
• Preferred Alternative (Catawba/Y-PD) -- 138.7 M
• Alternative 2 (All Y-PD) -- 116.3 M
• Other factors rated same for both alternatives
• Environmental consequences (Low)
• Secondary and cumulative impacts (Low)
• Public health issues (Low)
• Hydroelectric power generation (Low)

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Failing Grade, cont.

• C-Ks Preferred Alternative rewards
• Unrestrained growth in C-K
• Poor water quality practices in Y-PD basin Dr.
  Robert Long
• Continued use of out-of-date sewage treatment
  plants
• Failure to enforce sedimentation regulations

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Failing Grade, cont.

• Having assigned and evaluated numerous technical
  projects over 40 year career, I was very
  disappointed with the quality of this endeavor.
  As a result, it was assigned a failing grade.
• George A. Johnson
• Retired Professor, RIT

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IBT Summary

• Ignores Y-PD water supply advantage over Catawba
• Permanently reduces growth potential of Catawba
  basin
• True impact unknown - Final EIS full of errors
• Poor public policy
• Would reward
• Unrestrained growth in C-K
• Poor water quality practices in Y-PD basin
• Conclusion
• Reject IBT as proposed use Y-PD basin water only
  
• Pass NC SB 1561

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What You Can Do

• C-K IBT
• Send a letter or email with your concerns to
  NCDENR Phil.Fragapane_at_ncmail.net
• Emphasize effects on economic development,
  environmental impacts, poor public policy and
  public recreation
• Call EMC members, Governor, Lt. Governor,
  Senators, Representatives, etc.
• Attend Sept. 7th public meeting Old Rock
  School, 400 W. Main St., Valdese, 5 PM (Arrive at
  4 PM)(Written and oral comments)

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What You Can Do, cont

• IBT Legislation
• Ask state Senators and Representatives to push
  for Sen. Clodfelters bill SB 1561
• LIP (FERC Duke Power)
• Attend public relicensing hearing when it occurs

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The (Desired) End