Brutal Facts and Big Steps

1
Brutal Facts and Big Steps

• Dr. Scott Ralls, President
• North Carolina Community College System
• www.nccommunitycolleges.edu

2
Education is Economic Development
3
Divergent Skill Distributions
Demographic Shifts
Changing Economy
4
North Carolina Population Pyramids Percent of
Total Population Age and Gender
2030
2000
Female
Male
Male
Female
5
Diverging Hourly Wages
Total dollar wage for manufacturing workers in
U.S.
6
Third International Mathematics and Science
Study

• Percentage of eighth-grade students reaching the
  advanced benchmark in 2003
• Singapore 44
• Taiwan 38
• South Korea 35
• Hong Kong 35
• Japan 24
• United States 7

7
China

• Increasing scholarships and other student aid
  from 240 million in 2006 to 2.7 billion in
  2008
• Plans to expand government spending on education
  from 2.8 of GDP to 4 by 2010.

8
Share of foreign-born scientists and engineers in
U.S.

• By degree level 1990 and 2000

9
Young People Losing Ground High School
Attainment of Younger and Older Adults U.S. and
OECD Countries, 2005
Source Education at a Glance, 2007, Organisation
for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD)
prepared by National Center for Higher Education
Management Systems (NCHEMS).
Japan data is from 2004.
10
North Carolina High School Pipeline
11
at 2-year colleges?
Median of top five states. Source Source
National Center for Public Policy and Higher
Education, Measuring Up 2004, http//measuringup.h
ighereducation.org/database.cfm.
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Brutal Fact 1

• The emerging "nontraditional" student and the
  vanishing African American male student

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"Traditional" but not normal

• "Traditional" recent high school graduates
  enrolled as full-time residential students
• One out of five undergraduates -- 20 -- in US
  now "traditional"

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"Nontraditional" the new normal

• "Nontraditional" older, working, rearing
  families, commuting, stopping in and out,
  part-time
• Most of 72 national increase in undergrads
  since 1970 driven by "nontraditional" students
• Almost 2 out of 3 -- 64 -- of highly
  nontraditional students go to community
  colleges.

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The Vanishing African American Male Student

• African-American males 16 of NC K-12 public
  school students
• African-American men 8 of NC Community
  College System's curriculum headcount (06-07),
  16,885 total.
• Number of African-American male community college
  graduates declining in each of past three years
  as benefits of education rapidly growing.

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Brutal Fact 2

• Facing the consequences of North Carolina's
  community college completion rates and the
  costs of remediation

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Completion Rates

• "Non-traditional"
• 46 leave first year (48 in NC)
• With at least two risk factors, lt15 complete
  programs

• "Traditional"
• 23 leave first year
• 57 complete their programs

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North CarolinaGoing the wrong way

• National community college completion rates
  improving
• North Carolina's worsening, because
• Lack of intent to earn a degree
• Work recruitment prior to graduation
• Financial pressures
• Inability to quality for financial aid
• Lack of academic preparedness

19
How many high school students graduate on time?
Median of top five states. Source Manhattan
Institute, April 2006, Leaving Boys Behind
Public High School Graduation Rates.
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Understanding Completion Achieving the Dream

• Full and part-time students
• Six years after entering (not 150 of normal
  time)
• Earned degree or certificate
• Transferred without award
• Enrolled in year six with at least 30 college
  credits

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Brutal Fact 3

• North Carolina's looming work force shortage, the
  emerging role of immigrants, and the consequences
  of low college-going rates.

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Key Labor Source Immigrants

• By 2016, NC population likely up 15 (US just 9)
• Last 10 years, NC foreign-born population grew
  272 -- tops in US
• Asian -- up 128
• Hispanic/ Latino -- up 394

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Brutal Fact 4

• Balancing rising enrollments, lagging faculty
  salaries and inadequate equipment funds with
  expanding needs for graduates

24
2002-2009 Enrollment Increases in NC Community
College SystemFull-Time Equivalent Students (FTE)
25
Technology Utilization and System Simplification

• Effectively utilize existing technologies and
  simplify procedures, policies, and communications
  so that colleges may be more nimble, efficient,
  and accountable.
• Essential for staying ahead of changing economy,
  demographics, skills distributions

26
Name these places
Dubai
Dubai
Today
Ten Years Ago
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12 Largest U.S. Companies

• 1900
• American Cotton Oil
• American Steel
• American Sugar Ref.
• Continental Tobacco
• Federal Steel
• General Electric
• National Lead
• Pacific Mail
• Peoples Gas
• Tennessee Coal/Iron
• U.S. Leather
• U.S. Rubber

• 2000
• General Motors
• Wal-Mart
• Exxon
• Ford
• General Electric
• IBM
• Citigroup
• ATT
• Phillip Morris
• Boeing
• BankAmerica
• SBC Communications

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University of Phoenix Stadium
29
Axia College at the University of Phoenix
http//www.axiacollege.com/how-axia-college-works.
asp
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Four Largest Colleges in U.S.

• 2002
• Miami-Dade Comm. College54,926
• University of Texas (Austin)52,261
• The Ohio State University49,676
• University of Minnesota48,677

• 2004
• University of Phoenix115,794
• Miami-Dade Comm. College57,026
• The Ohio State University50,995
• University of Minnesota50,954

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Economic and Workforce Development

• Enhance economic and workforce development by
  transforming customized training programs,
  strengthening technical education, expanding
  health care programs, and developing strategic
  partnerships.

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Program Completion and Low-Income Students

• Increase program completion rates and college
  opportunities for low-income students.

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Seamless Education

• Promote seamless education by collaborating with
  public schools (to increase college and workplace
  readiness, reduce the number of high school
  dropouts, and increase dropout recovery) and with
  the UNC System (to increase strategic
  two-plus-two program completion opportunities).

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Budgeting, Planning, and Advocacy

• Develop long-term budgeting and planning
  strategies and increase the advocacy and
  financial support of community colleges
  throughout North Carolina.

35
Terry Sanford

• You will hear some whisperings abroad
  saying that we have done enough, have moved well
  and far and rapidly, and so it is time now to
  slow down, rest, and catch our breath.These
  whispers come from the fearful and those who have
  always opposed the accomplishments from which
  they would now rest. This cannot be and is not
  the spirit of North Carolina.
• Much remains to be done, to provide better
  educational opportunities for the competition our
  children will surely face, to encourage broader
  economic development so everybody will have a
  better chance to make a better living. Now is
  the time to move forward. Now is no time to loaf
  along.