Realizing Sustainability

1
Realizing Sustainability

• Karl R. Rábago
• rabago_at_mac.com
• October 27, 2007

2
Presentation Summary

• Global warming is the single most important issue
  facing humankind on this planet
• Global warming is primarily a problem of fossil
  energy
• We are altering the very functioning of the
  planet
• There are other vexing issues
• We need a new approach to life on Earth
• We have the tools and technologies to address all
  of these problems
• We made this problem in little steps we can
  solve it the same way

3
Some Reminders Things You Might HaveForgotten
You Knew
4
Commoners Four Rules

• . . . of Ecology
• Everything is Connected to Everything Else
• Everything Has to Go Somewhere
• Nature Knows Best
• There is No Such Thing as a Free Lunch

5
Webs of Life
Everything is connected
6
Everything Has to Go Somewhere
7
(No Transcript)
8
Nature Knows Best

• Nature Doesnt Compromise Nature Optimizes
• Think prairies, not monocultures
• Think passive energy systems, not active
• Think conservation of energy, not waste
• Think cooperation (in times of resource
  constraint), not competition
• The Pelican is not a compromise between a seagull
  and an otter . . . It is simply the best Pelican
  that Nature could so far devise.

9
There is No Free Lunch
10
Dimensions of the Problem
11
The Trend is Ominous
12
Upsala Glacier, Argentina
1928
2004
13
(No Transcript)
14
We Dont Seem to Care
PEW Center - Global Warming A Divide on Causes
and Solutions Public Views Unchanged by Unusual
Weather Released January 24, 2007
15
(No Transcript)
16
(No Transcript)
17
Source NRDC
18
The Models were Wrong

• CLIMATE Increases in atmospheric CO2 dwarfs
  predictions
• Lauren Morello, Greenwire reporter
• CO2 increases in the Earth's atmosphere have
  outpaced scientists' predictions by 35 since
  2000.
• Economic growth and lower efficiency in fossil
  fuel use are a key factor, but a significant
  portion of the increase -- about 18 percent --
  occurred because land and water are less able to
  absorb the heat-trapping gas than they have in
  the past.
• Between 2000 and 2006, the level of CO2 in the
  atmosphere grew by 1.93 parts per million, the
  biggest annual increase seen since scientists
  began continuous monitoring of CO2 levels in
  1959.
• The total level of atmospheric CO2 is now 381
  ppm. United Nations and Bush administration
  reports have said conditions would be
  "manageable" if atmospheric concentrations
  stabilized around 450 ppm.
• According to the new study, fossil fuels remain
  the largest source of human-caused CO2, emitted
  at a rate of 7.6 billion metric tons per year
  between 2000 and 2006 -- up from 6.5 billion
  metric tons per year in the 1990s.
• Meanwhile, changes in wind patterns over the
  Southern Ocean accounted for about half the
  decline in CO2 absorption by the world's oceans,
  the researchers said.
• The research was funded by the Global Carbon
  Project, the University of East Anglia and the
  British Antarctic Survey, and published last week
  in Proceedings, Natl Academies.

19
Concepts for the New Reality

• Cybernetic feedback
• Tipping point
• Thermo-haline conveyor
• Arctic soil carbon
• Vegetative migration rates

20
Where are We Going?

• Growing demand is on a collision-coursewith
  declining resources
• Current consumption and pollution trends will
  leave future generations with more problems and
  fewer solutions options.
• All human and natural activity must occur within
  the finite physical constraints of the planet
  Earth.
• The pace of degradation and the magnitude of the
  problem are increasing, in spite of impressive
  successes.
• With declining resources and rising costs (and a
  senseless war), we have to do more with less.

21
Barriers to Coherence

• Understanding definition of progress and
  inevitability
• World views our views of Gods intentions about
  resources
• Faith in science, or lack thereof
• Political beliefs
• Intentional/unintentional miscommunication
• Cause vs. solutions disconnect

22
By and large, our present problem is one of
attitudes and implements. We are remodeling the
Alhambra with a steam-shovel, and we are proud of
our yardage. We shall hardly relinquish the
shovel, which after all has many good points, but
we are in need of gentler and more objective
criteria for its successful use. Aldo
Leopold - A Sand County Almanac
23
SustainabilityGetting Back on Track
24
What is Sustainability?

• Sustainability is a condition of being able to
  continue indefinitely We can go on like this
  forever!
• Sustainable development meets the needs of the
  present without compromising the ability of
  future generations to meet their own needs
• Sustainability means livingand working as ifyou
  really believein a tomorrow

25
Sustainability - How?

• Triple Bottom Line
• Economic Sustainability
• Environmental Sustainability
• Social Sustainability
• John Elkington

26
Taking the Long View
College HallNew College, Oxford
Avery Victoria RábagoOct. 5, 2000
27
Sustainable Development
Society
Economy
Sustainability!
Environment
28
Aligning Our Church with Creation
29
Seeing the Big Picture

• Does the Future Have Rights?
• Discounted cash flows
• Massive economic deficits
• Massive social deficits
• Massive ecological deficits
• Do Other People Have Rights?
• Does Nature Have Rights?

30
Seeing All Dimensions
31
The Parable of the Cats

• In their book Extinction, Paul and Ann Erlich
  tell a story about how some years ago, the World
  Health Organization used DDT to control malarial
  mosquitoes and houseflies in Borneo. The DDT also
  killed the parasitic wasps that kept down the
  local caterpillar population. The caterpillars
  multiplied and began eating holes in the thatched
  roofs of houses. Meanwhile, the poisoned
  houseflies became a sudden bounty for gecko
  lizards who became sick from eating the flies.
  The sickened lizards became easy prey to cats who
  eventually died of their own accumulated burden
  of DDT. As a result, rats flourished, bubonic
  plague began to spread and the government was
  forced to parachute cats, like commandos, into
  the area. Presumably the cats had easy access
  through the tattered roofs.

Rocky Mountain Institute
32
Hurricanes Katrina and RitaA Tale of Two
Hospitals
33
Mississippi Baptist Medical CenterJackson, MS
34
Memorial Hermann Baptist HospitalBeaumont, TX

• In the days preceding landfall, the hospital was
  closed and patients were pre-evacuated to other
  facilities.
• Hurricane Rita made landfall near Beaumont-Port
  Arthur on Friday, September 23, 2005
• Back up generators started, but could neither
  power the chillers nor maintain power due to
  length of outage.
• As a result, the hospital was unable to provide
  services during the storm and could not reopen
  for about one week.
• The Hospital secured 22 natural gas engines
  staged in Houston. Full power restored by Sept.
  30, 2005, although repairs took 3 months.
• The Hospital incurred over 30M in hurricane
  costs damages, primarily related to loss of
  HVAC. Humidity infiltration resulted in extensive
  damage to floors, ceiling tiles, medical
  supplies, and equipment.

• Hurricane Rita
• Closed the hospital for one week
• Caused over 30M in costs and damages

35
Value of Distributed Energy

• Mississippi Baptist Medical Center
• Remained open and treated a high volume of
  patients
• Provided clothing, food, and housing for
  displaced patients during the first night of the
  disaster
• Opened a round-the-clock day care to allow
  employees to focus on patient care

• Memorial Herman Baptist Hospital
• Provided no medical services during or after the
  storm
• Remained closed for seven days due to lack of
  power and water
• Lost operating revenues and suffered damages of
  over 30M primarily from humidity infiltration

The Difference?A distributed, efficient
combined-heat-and-power system!
36
Multi-Attribute Maximization

• NOT balancing economy and environment
• Rather the Triple Bottom Line in action!

37
Triple Bottom Line Winners

• Bio-based products
• Energy efficiency
• Green buildings
• Efficient mass transit
• Green munitions
• Domestically produced biofuels
• Take-back rules
• Biomimicry
• Clean, distributed, renewable energy

38
I now suspect that just as a deer herd lives in
mortal fear of its wolves, so does a mountain
live in mortal fear of its deer. And perhaps with
better cause, for while a buck pulled down by
wolves can be replaced in two or three years, a
range pulled down by too many deer may fail of
replacement in as many decades. So also with
cows. The cowman who cleans his range of wolves
does not realize that he is taking over the
wolf's job of trimming the herd to fit the range.
He has not learned to think like a mountain.
Hence we have dustbowls, and rivers washing the
future into the sea. Aldo Leopold, A Sand
County Almanac
39
Electricity
40
Electricity

• 1,000,000,000,000 assets
• 270,000,000,000 annual sales
• 3 GDP
• 10X - 100X more capitalintense than oil
  gasindustries

41
Electricity

• 33 CO2, NOX 66 SO2
• 15 of delivered energy 40 of cost
• Heat Content 0.14/kWh 234.00/barrel oil
• 75 of homes lt 2.5 avg. kW
• 74 of commercial lt 10 avg. kW

42
Electricity - The Trend

• Between 1948 and 1998
• US population - up 82
• Electricity sold - up 1,500
• Per person electricity use - up 600

43
Practical Electric Economics
44
Annual U.S. energy waste 300 billion
U.S. power plant waste heat total Japanese
energy use
U.S. economy is less than 10 asenergy-efficient
as physics permits
45
Stagnant Efficiency - U.S. Electricity
Source EIA, Annual Energy Review 1996
46
Waste Makes . . . Money!

• Sun
• Plants
• 100,000,000 years
• Extraction Waste
• Transport Waste
• Combustion Waste
• Conversion Waste
• Transmission Waste
• Distribution Waste
• Work Waste

47
(No Transcript)
48
Renewable Energy
49
Renewable Energy Cost Trends
Source NREL Energy Analysis Office
Levelized cost of energy in constant 2005
(Ethanol is fuel)
Subsidies not included
50
Current electricity capacity and renewable
energy development rates (2006)
Non-hydro Renewables 23.8 GW
U.S. Electricity Capacity 988 GW
Biomass (electricity only, not fuels)
Average Annual U.S. Renewable Energy Capacity
Growth Rates (2004 to 2006)
U.S. Renewable Energy Installed Capacity
Source EIA, Navigant
51
Renewable energy resources exist at a scale large
enough to make an impact on mitigating climate
change
Concentrating Solar Power
Examples
Using 10 existing transmission
Sources Wind (Black Veatch, 2007) Geothermal
(NREL, 2006) CSP (DOE, Assessment of Potential
Impact of CSP for Electricity Generation Report
to Congress, 2007)
52
Renewable energy can come on-line at a rate to
keep up with needed capacity additions
Years
Source Margolis, R. (NREL) Notes Graph not
normalized for output or transmission and
distribution infrastructure. Geothermal value
does not include time and permitting for
exploration.
Renewable energy can impact climate change by
bringing new carbon-free electricity online
quickly
53
More aggressive technology scenarios of
efficiency and renewables are of large enough
scale to impact trajectories for 450 550 ppm
concentrations
BAU Baseline
U.S. share of global carbon equivalent emissions
54
Global RE Investment Trends

• Investors poured 71 billion of new investment
  into companies and new sector opportunities in
  2006, a 43 jump from 2005
• In 2007, clean energy investments predicted to be
  85 billion
• Venture capital and private equity investments
  increased 167 between 2005 and 2006
• Wind, biofuels, and solar attracted 71 of VC/PE
  investment
• Stock market investments in technology
  development, commercialization and manufacturing
  firms increased 141 in 2006 compared with 2005
• Solar dominated in the public market arena in
  2006, with 5.7 billion of investment activity
• Today, non-hydro renewable sources produce about
  2 of the worlds energy, but they account for
  about 18 of world investment in power generation

Global Investment in Sustainable Energy by
Technology (2006)
Source UNEP, 2007Sustainable Energy Finance
Initiative, New Energy Finance
55
WindWhat if 20 of ourelectricity camefrom
wind?
56
Excellent wind resource in US600 Gigawatts of
wind for 100/MWh or lessincluding transmission
limits (but not tax credits)
57
Growth Path for Wind under 20 Wind Vision
Scenario

• 305 GW wind energy in total by 2030, equaling
  20 of U.S. generation
• Ramp-up to about 16 GW per year, compared to 3
  GW per year today

58
Wind would be developed in most states
59
Natural gas benefits by 2030

• 20 from Wind would
• Reduce total US natural gas use by 11 Reduce
  natural gas prices by 12 or 0.90 per MMBtu.
• Save 128 billion in net present value over the
  23-year period.
• Lower on-peak electricity prices by 7 to 11

60
Job Benefits from 20 Wind
61
But Wait!Theres More . . .
62
Integrated Biorefinery Model
63
(No Transcript)
64
(No Transcript)
65
Source Todd Spink
66
(No Transcript)
67
The Fallacy of the Big Solution
68
The Subtle Bigotry of Large Expectations

• Renewable energy isnt significant unless it can
  displace ALL coal and all imported oil
• The fact that more technological progress is
  coming means we shouldnt invest in renewables
  now
• Challenges to sustainability, which we create
  with billions of individual actions, can only be
  met with comprehensive, global-scale solutions
• We cant start using food or feed crops for
  alternative markets without threatening the
  entire crop system
• We can use western land for wind, solar and
  geothermal development without threatening entire
  ecosystems

69
Beware Big Solutions The Nuclear Power Example

• Suppose that saving a kWh costs as much as 3
  (well above average, actually 1), and delivering
  a new nuclear kWh costs as little as 6
  (extremely optimistic, actually 12)
• Then each 6 spent on a nuclear kWh could have
  bought two efficiency kWh
• So buying the costlier nuclear kWh instead
  resulted in one more kWh of avoidable
  fossil-fueled generation
• So - Unless nuclear power is the cheapest way of
  all to meet energy-service needs, buying more of
  it will make climate change worse than if the
  best buys were bought instead

Rocky Mountain Institute
70
Opportunity Costs Matter!

• The order of economic priority is also the order
  of sustainability priority best buys first!
• You cant spend a on two different things!
• This elementary concept of opportunity cost is
  missing from the nuclear-power and other big
  solution conversations
• Development strategy is NOT a Chinese restaurant
  menu

71
A Tale of 2 Gigawatts
72
Choices Matter

• Decisions have opportunity costs.
• Power plant 20 50 years
• Waste water treatment plant 20 - 25 years
• Houses Offices 50 70 years
• Carbon Dioxide 100 years
• If your decisions have this impact, shouldnt
  your goals have this reach?

73
New Thinking(and New Economics) Needed

• Sun Sun
• Plants Conversion
• 100,000,000 years Distribution
• Extraction Work
• Transport
• Combustion
• Conversion
• Transmission
• Distribution
• Work

74
Creative Approaches,New Opportunities
75
Tradable Renewable Energy Credits (RECs)
76
Voluntary Green Power Markets

• 3,500 MW
• 700,000 customers
• Reaching 50 of US customers
• Complementary to compliance markets

77
The Voluntary Market - Texas
Texas REC Market 2005 Data (1 REC 1
MWh) Mandatory Retirements 1,497,000
RECs (61) Voluntary Retirements 951,000
RECs (39) Expirations 1,351 RECs
KEY TAKEAWAY MESSAGE The Voluntary Market in
Texas for Clean Renewable Energyis off to a
GREAT Start! Join us in proving that people want
RENEWABLE ENERGY BUY CERTIFIED TEXAS
RECs SUPPORT Texas Interfaith Power
Light www.txipl.org
Wind MW Installed June 2007
78
The Voluntary Carbon Market
150 Billion Tonnes to 2050!
79
We are citizensof the planetWe were
bornhereWere gonna diehere Come what
may Simon Garfunkle
80
Sustainable Development
Society
Economy
Sustainability!
Environment
81
(No Transcript)
82
(No Transcript)
83

• Thanks!

84
Unless . . .

• Someone like you cares a whole awful lot,
• Nothing is going to get better,
• Its not!

Theodore Giesel Dr. Seuss, The Lorax