Choices for the Future A Presentation on the Willamette Valley Alternative Transportation Futures Project Transportation and Land Use Planning Applications Forum Gainesville, Florida October 19, 2001

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Choices for the FutureA Presentation on the
Willamette Valley Alternative Transportation
Futures Project Transportation and Land Use
Planning Applications ForumGainesville,
FloridaOctober 19, 2001
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Presentation Overview

• What Prompted This Project?
• What were our Objectives?
• How did we carryout the Project?
• What did we Learn?

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Origins of Oregons Land Use Program

• Concerns over
• loss of farm and forest land
• sprawl
• environmental impacts of growth
• Senate Bill 100

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Key Provisions of SB 100

• 19 Planning Goals dealing with a range of issues
  including
• housing, transportation, urbanization, farm and
  forest land
• Establishment of Urban Growth Boundaries (UGBs)

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Beyond SB 100

• Move beyond focus on UGB Islands
• Willamette Valley Efforts
• Partnership for Valley Future Conference (Oregon
  Progress Board) - 1994
• Willamette Valley Transportation Strategy - 1995
• Willamette Valley Livability Forum - 1996

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The WVLF is a Voluntary Consortium of Over 80
Members

• Forum Purpose - Help Valley residents and
  decision-makers find and promote solutions to
  growth and development issues in the Valley
• Forum Goals
• Share information
• Make connections
• Build a vision
• Advise state and local officials

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Opportunity

• Pacific Northwest Ecosystem Research Consortium
• Willamette River Basin Case Study
• 1000 Friends of Oregon
• Willamette Valley Alternative Futures Research
  Project
• ODOTs Development of Statewide Model

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Purpose
1) Take a long-range look at the future of land
use and transportation in Oregons Willamette
Valley.
2) Identify policy choices to avoid or minimize
future impacts of growth on transportation.
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Guided by a 14-member ProjectSteering Committee
Robert Liberty, 1000 Friends of Oregon Bob
Russell, OHUA Richard Brandman, Metro Susan
Brody, WVLF Marcia Kelley, MWACT Tom Schwetz,
LCOG Mike Propes, Polk County Joan Baker, EPA

• Jon Chandler, OBIA
• Chris Hagerbaumer, OTRAN
• Bob Cortright, DLCD
• Gary Johnson, ODOT
• Ed Gallagher, Governor's Comm. Dev. Office
• Craig Greenleaf, ODOT

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Approach

• Used state-of-art computer modeling techniques
• Simulated effects of alternative land use and
  transportation policies over the next 50 years
  for 11,500 Sq Mi Valley and State as a whole

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Integrated StatewideComputer Model
Analytical tool to help understand complex
interactions among Oregons economy, land use
patterns, and transportation system
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Scope of Integrated Model

• Designed to address the policy concerns in Oregon
  such as the effects of
• Land use and transportation policies on
  population and employment distributions
• Land use on travel behavior
• Highway capacity increases on travel behavior and
  land use
• Transit investments on highway use and
• Changes in the states population and economy on
  transportation and land use.

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122-Analysis Zone Structure
Not high definition the models resolution
lends itself to regional levels of analysis,
rather than evaluations of short-distance trips.
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Economic Submodel Calculates overall economic
activity
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Location Submodel Allocates population and
employment growth
A
B
C
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Transportation Submodel Calculates travel
resulting from movement of goods/svcs
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Policy Choices Considered

• Land available for development
• Investments in highways and transit
• Cost of driving

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Evaluated Seven Scenarios

• Created scenarios with distinct differences to
  facilitate evaluation of results
• Evaluated each to the year 2050 in 5-year
  increments
• Used same statewide population and employment
  forecasts

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Framework for Scenarios
No Action
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What have we learned ?
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Theres No Silver Bullet
Whatever we do, an additional 1.7 million people
will result in increased traffic congestion
levels.
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• We can have an effect on just how crowded
  highways will become in years ahead.

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• Combining compact development, increased transit
  service, additional highway lanes, and higher
  driving costs reduces 2050 traffic congestion
  levels in half.

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Other Key Findings

• Transit
• Transportation pricing increases transit
  ridership.
• Increasing the frequency and convenience of
  public transit encourages more use.
• Freight
• The hybrid approach also provides the greatest
  benefit for truck freight mobility
• Congestion impacts truck freight movement to a
  greater extent than passenger travel.

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Effects on Population and Employment Distribution
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Expanding public transit concentrates jobs in
major urban centers while pulling population to
outlying cities.
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Expanding highways draws both people and jobs to
outlying cities.
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Overall Findings

• No single approach (more efficient land use,
  infrastructure investments, or roadway pricing)
  is as effective in keeping traffic moving as is a
  balanced combination of these approaches
  (Hybrids).
• The model results confirm the interconnection
  between the economy, land use and transportation
  and reinforce the importance of regional
  approaches for transportation planning.

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Wrap-up

• Process Lessons
• Criticisms
• Things to improve

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Process Lessons

• Changes the Nature of the Planning Question
• Difficulty exporting the Ahas
• Process is Experiential
• Brings home the limits of public policy
• Value is in exploring broader causes and effects
• Decision aiding, not decision making

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Criticisms

• Complex relationships defy modeling for current
  conditions, let alone Fifty years out for a whole
  state
• Highly abstracted results are easily
  misused/misunderstood by interest groups
• Avoids more difficult and detailed planning
  needed in the short run

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Effort currently under way to improve robustness
of statewide model by Increasing geographic
resolution (i.e., more analysis zones) and
expanding detail of transportation network
Accounting for freight transported by rail and
barge. Adding capabilities to evaluate peak
congestion periods Representing economic
interactions between Oregon and rest of the
nation.
Next Generation
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For more information, visit the Willamette
Valley Livability Forums web site at
www.wvlf.org/atf.html