Garrett County Total NonAgricultural Employment First Quarter 1996 through First Quarter 2003

1
The Housing Market Implications of BRAC
Activities at FGGM
On Behalf of Howard County, Maryland
By Anirban Basu Sage Policy Group, Inc. July
23, 2009
2
Analytical Findings

• Restricted growth in area housing supply will
  force many home buyers -- including BRAC and
  other Fort Meade jobholders -- to seek housing at
  ever greater distances from the workplace
• Households earning less than 80K per year will
  be disproportionately affected by a lack of
  suitably priced housing
• Regional growth in jobs and households requires
  new solutions, such as transportation demand
  management and changes in land use policy.

3
Primary Project Objectives

• Assess the impact of BRAC for Anne Arundel
  County, Howard County, and the City of Laurel
  on
• Housing Demand for owner-occupied and rental
  housing
• Housing Supply
• Housing Stratification by price point
• Gaps in Housing Supply along multiple dimensions,
  including price/affordability.

4
Housing Demand
5
Employment generated by FGGM BRAC
6
Location of all FGGM BRAC-related Housing Demand
Source FGGM data on housing location of current
workers, Sage
7
Net increase in housing demand by jurisdiction
due to BRAC
SourceSage
8
Net increase in housing demand by jurisdiction
by owner-occupied rented
SourceSage
9
Housing Supply
10
Howard County Housing Stock Projections 2006-2015
Source Howard County Department of Planning and
Zoning
11
Howard County Home Sales1998-2008
12
Howard County Housing Permits1998-2008
13
Active Housing Inventory by Baltimore MSA
Jurisdiction, June 2008 vs. June 2009
Source Maryland Association of Realtors
Maryland Jun. 2008 52,157 Jun. 2009 45,359
14
MD County Housing Inventory, Apr. 2009
Source Maryland Association of Realtors

• MD 13 months

15
Housing Stratification
16
Distribution of net new BRAC-related housing
demand by household income
Source Sage
17
Distribution of net new BRAC-related housing
demand by household income
7.5 below 50k 24.4 between 50k and
75k 30.0 between 75k and 100k 31.3 between
100k and 150k 6.8 more than 150k
Source Sage
18
Housing demand by household income bracket by
jurisdiction
Source Sage
19
Housing Gap
20
Historic Housing Availability, 2000 and 2005-2007
Source U.S. Census, Anne Arundel County, Howard
County, City of Laurel, Sage
21
Future Housing Availability (est.), 2010 and 2015
Source U.S. Census, Anne Arundel County, Howard
County, City of Laurel, Sage
22
Howard County Median Home Sale Prices1998-2008
23
Howard County estimated annual rental housing
vacancy shares, 2005-2007
Source U.S. Bureau of Census 2005-2007 American
Community Survey, Sage
24
Steady state BRAC demand by 2015 households
earning less than 80,000
Roughly 30 percent of demand in these counties
will be displaced due to lack of affordability.
25
Strategies for Affordable Housing

• Expand the availability of sites
• Change Land Use Policies
• Funding Strategies and
• Empower Residents.

26
Thank You