EMERGING TECHNOLOGIES Market Review

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EMERGING TECHNOLOGIESMarket Review
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SECTION I

• ACCESS DEVICES
• WIRELESS
• INTERACTIVE TV

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Wireless Internet Technologies

• Technology in Use
• WAP industry standard, based on circuit
  switcing, mainly for GSM networks
• i-Mode proprietary technology of DoCoMo, based
  on packet transmission
• Standard in Development GPRS
• Packet switching protocol, applicable on existing
  GSM networks

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Problems With WAP

• Connection slow and Unreliable
• Expensive due to circuit switching
• Data transfer at 9.6 Kpbs is slow for surfing
• Screen size ease of navigation
• Processing power of handsets
• Did not catch on with consumers

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Advantages of i-Mode

• Connection always on
• Lower cost due to packet switching
• Data transfer speed high
• Tried tested
• Favourable User Reception

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GPRS Next Winner?

• Combines best elements of WAP and i-Mode
• Works, like WAP, on GSM networks
• Packet switched like i-Mode
• Supports always on connection
• Lower cost, charge by data
• Launched in mid-2000, market reception to be seen

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MobileTechnology Time Frame
WAP
GPRS
3G
Concentrates mobile industry on connectivity
inter-operability Starts Consumer Interest in
Data Services
Introduces packet-based systems Commercial data
services launched Usage indicates demand picture
and leads the way to 3G
Data speeds reach levels eough for
streaming Platforms technologies evolve, costs
decline to reach mass market

• 2000

2001
2003
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Turkish Market Growing Fast

• Penetration will reach 20 by year-end 2000
• Expected to approach 50 by 2009

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Competition Services

• Little competition so far
• Two operators share the market since 1994
  Turkcell (68) and Telsim (32)
• Operators target subscriber numbers, little
  service differentiation
• Prepaid cards introduced recently Low-revenue
  but very popular with new users

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Competition Heats Up

• Two new operators to enter market in 2001
• IsBank-TIM joint Venture (Aria)
• Türk Telekom Mobile (Ay-cell)
• TTMobile to allow back-door access for
  conglomerates
• Infrastructure and operations to be subcontracted
  on revenue sharing basis
• Bidders include Koç-Nortel Sabanci-Dogus-Alcatel
  consortia

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Revenue Threat in Mobile Voice

• New Users Bring Lower Revenue Despite growth in
  numbers, average revenue per user (ARPU)
  declining
• Prepaid ARPU is one third of post-paid
• Prepaid market share expected to reach 50 by
  2003
• Customer acquisition costs are increasing and
  will further go up due to new entrants

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Wireless Will Move to Data

• New Goal Increase usage instead of subscriber
  numbers
• Usage can be increased by data services
• Consumer internet access
• E-mail services
• Wireless portals
• E-commerce

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Possible Role for Companies

• Where is the server?

Mobile Operators Server
Cos Wireless Server
Here?
MOBILE NETWORK
Does the wireless operator control access or
does it allow access for others?
Cos Wireless Server
Or Here?
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Emerging Web Access iTV

• Crowded Space in Europe
• Major players Murdoch ( Open TV, BSkyB), Vivendi
  Universal ( Canal)
• Initial investment requirement high, hinders
  rapid deployment
• Delivery through Cable or Satellite

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Cable Vs. Satellite

• Cable
• provides higher security
• better equipped to deal with two way traffic
• Infrastructure expensive to install
• Satellite
• Carousel structure implies no real-time access
• Back channel via telephone, creating user
  inconvenience and security

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Satellite Structure
Operator pulls applications to the carousel
Pushes applications to the consumer
Internet
Telephone as back channel connectivity
security problems
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Cable TV in Turkey

• Türk Telekom built initial infrastructure, then
  granted operating concessions to four operating
  companies
• Cable infrastructure passes 1,9 million homes,
  of which 800,000 are subscribers
• Operating companies controlled by
• Erol Aksoy
• Uzan Family
• Koç-Dogan jv.

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Cable TV in Turkey 2

• Cost Advantage for Operating companies Avoided
  heavy initial infrastructure costs
• Ratio of homes passed still low at 13,
  additional capacity requires heavy investment
• Only analogue TV and internet access now, iTV
  requires settop box investment
• Will remain small until large capital inflow
• Consolidation likely

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Satellite TV in Turkey

• Satellite broadcasing picks up in 2000.
• Players
• Stardigital (the Uzan family) claims 300,000
  subscribers, benefits from football franchise
• Digitürk (Çukurova Group) launched in 2000
• Both plan to launch interactive service with
  technology to be provided by Open TV
• Dogan had plans for entry in late 2000.

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Prospects of Satellite

• All satellite companies target the same 5 million
  households
• Investment estimated at 100-150 million
• Competiton for market share prevents companies
  fron passing investment costs on to consumers
• Market not large enough to support three players,
  given large upfront investment amount.

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SECTION II

• FRONT-END VENDORS
• Software Vendors
• Platform Providers
• System Integrators

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Software Solutions

• User Demand shifted from higher productivity to
  increased sales and service
• Value proposition no longer ROI cost saving, but
  time to implement application
• Customers main goal time-to-market
• Growing players
• Packaged Enterprise Applications
• System Integrators

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Evolution of Software App.
Packaged Applications
Complete Platform
Integrated Application
Customer Relationship
Content Management
Build In-House
Point Solution
Transaction Processing
1999
2001E
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Integrated e-commerce architecture
CRM
Legacy System
Personal.
Content Mngmt
Customer Support
B2B or B2C
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Customer Interaction Software

• Market Segment Best-of-breed
• CRM Siebel
• PersonalizationBroadvision
• Content ManagementVignette
• Real-Time Messaging Tibco
• Vendors try to develop in all segments, but
  best-of-breed aligned with partners in
  complimentary segments

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B2B Platforms

• Two Leading Platform Providers
• Commerce One
• Ariba
• Develop Alliances
• With other vendors to increase functionality
• With system integrators to reduce time to market
• With industry leaders to promote marketplaces

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B2B Alliances

• Commerce One
• Sun for operating Platform
• SAP to integrate purchasing
• Citigroup for payment systems

• Ariba
• IBM and i2 for system integration
• Amex for payment systems

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System Integrators

• Traditional IT consultants
• IBM Global Services
• EDS
• Andersen Consulting
• CAP Gemini

• Start-up integrators
• Sapient
• Marchfirst
• iXL
• Scient
• Viant
• Mphasis

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Turkish Vendors

• Software Vendors Medium size companies
  developing enterprise software for SMEs
• Logo
• Link
• Integrators
• Koc Sistem
• Meteksan
• Low-end Integrators
• Servus
• Probil