Is TAP(I) Still an Option

1

• Is TAP(I) Still an Option
• An Afghan Prospective
• By Nasir A. Andisha

2
Asian Development Bank Study
3
Background

• TAP officially began 30 May 2002
• steering committee of the ministers of oil and
  gas (Mines) from the three countries
• Asian Development Bank (ADB) as development
  partner and to grant regional technical
  assistance, 16th Sept.2002

4
ADBs Role

• Feasibility study, 2002- updated 2005
• Risk mitigation and market study(Pak gas)
• Security challenges, 2005 report by ADB
• Framework and Model Agreements

5
PlayersProducer

• Turkmenistan limited export options
• LNG not an option, build liquefaction facilities,
  ports and tankers, transit routs
• Pipelines Westward pipeline, complication of
  Caspian's offshore waters
• TAP(I) Pipeline, foreseeable future option

6
Consumer IPakistan

• Expected 6-7 GDP growth, can absorb the exported
  30bm3/yr
• Natural gas is 53 of energy mix natural
• Gas production is expected to decline over the
  next 15-25 year period, while demand is expected
  to increase
• TAP(I) and IPI competitive to LNG option
• Pakistan Energy yearbook.2005

7
IndiaConsumer II

• India GDP growth 9.4
• Increase in Natural Gas consumption 12.77bcm 1991
  to 31.33bcm 2005-6
• Focus on energy security policy (joins the
  project
• End of this month)
• Energy Security Division in the Ministry of
  External Affairs- India

8
Afghanistan High level political Commitment
toward the Policy of Regional Coop.
9
National Priority projectsRegional Cooperation

• Ring road- lowering transit time (regional
  Project)
• Purchase and transit of Electricity (regional
  Project)
• Counter Narcotics/Smuggling (regional Project)
• TAP(I) Pipeline (regional Project)
• ECT membership- Dec 08

10
Govt. AfghanistanResponsible Agencies

• Ministry of Mines, focal point HoD in (StC)
• Ministry of Foreign Affairs-Newly established,
  Economic Cooperation Division, Directorate of
  Trade,Transit and Foreign Investment (StC
  member)
• Secretariat of Afghanistan National Development
  Strategy office of senior economic advisor for
  the President of IRA. (Supervisor)

11
TAP(I) in National Development Strategy
Project Description Current Status
Bottlenecks
Action Required
12
Challenges

• The process of discussion too slow and dominated
  by regional politics
• Turkmen commitment and status of reserves.
• Deterioration of security along the proposed
  line.
• ADB-20M Security plan
• Private sector interest
• Shell, Indian private sector ?

13
Alternative Route
Green lines are electricity Grids currently under
cons -traction
14
The momentum

• Next Steering Committee Meeting 19 Nov
• Indias official membership
• India-Pakistan energy security needs
• Central Asia-South Asia Regional Coop

15

• Thank you
• Sources
• www.mfa.gov.af
• www.ands.gov.af
• www.adb.org http//www.eia.doe.gov/emeu/cabs/Pakis
  tan/Background.html
• http//petroleum.nic.in