How The Rebel Regained His Cause: Hizbullah

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How The Rebel Regained His Cause Hizbullah the
Sixth Arab-Israeli War

• ASSR, 19 September 2006
• Reinoud Leenders

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How The Rebel Regained His Cause Hizbullah the
Sixth Arab-Israeli War
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Hizbullahs Quandary

• Pre-war room for maneuver popular support
• post-2000 Israeli withdrawal deterrence
• Syria pulling out of Lebanon spring 2005
• France/US pressures via UNSCR 1559 for Hizbullah
  disarmament
• Hizbullahs decision to take part in government

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The War and Hizbullahs Symbolic Capital Gains

• From deterrence back to resistance
• Payoffs of populist discourse

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The War and Hizbullahs Symbolic Capital Gains
Populism

• Strong charismatic leadership appealing directly
  to common folk unmediated by and hostile to
  institutions
• Attack on political establishment and their
  institutions in Lebanon and Arab world for
• Lack of patriotism
• Facilitating US/Israeli designs for the new
  Middle East
• Corruption and selfishness
• Gap rulers and ruled.

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The war and Hizbullahs symbolic capital gains
Populism

• Distancing from government institutions and
  political class it is itself reluctantly part of
• Beyond narrow sectarian constituency the silent
  majority versus the illusive majority
• Restoring regional significance in appeal to Arab
  public
• Declaring victory

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Problems of Hizbullahs populism

• Once again deterrence?
• Continuing need for Lebanese state and political
  elites
• Regional content of populism pitfalls impact
  on remaining nationalist credentials in Lebanon.
• ? Sought after precarious balance of state
  parallel to the state yet risk of state within
  a failed state

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Forced Disarmament or a Rebel Without A Cause?
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Note on Methodology Sources

• Problems of studying a highly secretive and
  closed organization
• Real or purported military material assets and
  supply routes
• Symbolic capital

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Notes on Theory Comparative Issues Symbolic
Capital

• To distinguish from
• IR Realism
• Regional Conflict Formation use of cross-border
  movements fuelling war
• Terrorism

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Notes on Theory Comparative Issues Populism

• Self-perceived populism?
• ????????? Populism / ???? Populist
• Silent versus illusive majority
• Vanguard Talia

• Structural-material roots of populism
  Sectarianism
• Internal Contradictions of Populism?

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Notes on Theory Comparative Issues Populism

• Reluctantly in office?
• Charismatic leadership and / or strong party
  structures?
• Chameleon-like features of populism