What

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Whats Wrong With These Pictures?
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The Same Thing as This
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• The Facts
• fact finding is more effective than fault
  finding
• Demographic
• Economic
• Political

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• DEMOGRAPHICS
• Of all the forces that will change the world
  over the next generation, demography is probably
  the most important
• Hamish McRae, The World in 2020

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Demographics Living Longer
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Demographics Aging
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Demographics Changing
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Economics Earnings
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POLITICS The Theory

• A politician thinks of the next election a
  statesman of the next generation.

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A Model of the IssueIf the world were perfect,
algebra would actually come in handy
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The Model

• SSB BR
• R POP65(RTR65)
• SST tIW
• W POP18LFPR18
• SST SSB

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The Result
t B POP62 RTR62
I POP 18 LF18
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Social Security Tax Rate (t)
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B/I
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POP18/POP62
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RTR62/LF18
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Policy Options

• Lower B/I
• Lower benefits (B)
• Raise income (I)
• Lower (POP62/POP18)
• Immigration (POP18)
• Lower (RFR/LF18)
• Raise retirement age (RFR)
• Raise labor force participation rate (LF18)

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Arnold Toynbee

• The first tragedy is that man allows himself
  to be victimized by the artificial environment
  that he has created...The second tragedy is that
  he could save himself from at least the direst of
  consequences if... he were to allow his foresight
  to get the better of his inertia.

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Whats Wrong With These Pictures?
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Intergenerational Conflict
The baby-boom generation has crippled our
economy with 13 digit debt and depleted our
natural resources. Unlike our parents, we will
have difficulty finding jobs,we will not own our
own homes... We see the world they have left us
and many of us choose to drink