Vojvodina Serbia

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Vojvodina (Serbia)
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University of Novi Sad is a second largest in
Serbia and one of the prestigious in former
Yugoslavia. Established in 1956., University has
grown into a modern educational centre, gathering
students not only from Vojvodina and Serbia and
Montenegro, but also from abroad. Its today's
campus shape is unique in this part of Europe.
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Panorama
Vienna, 14-16 February 2007, Project Meeting
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Faculty of Agriculture
is the oldest at the
University. The Faculty is a home
of all the major agricultural fields
of education and research, giving a solid
base for agricultural development in
the region. http//polj.ns.ac.yu
One of 25 Central European universities at the
list of 2000 ranked world universities
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The First Project Meeting ADAGIO Climate change,
vulnerability, and adaptation in agriculture
the situation in Serbia Serbian
Crew corresponding by D.T. Mihailovic
Vienna, 14-16 February 2007, Project Meeting
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Partner 4
Participants

• Prof. Dragutin T. Mihailovic, Haed of Center for
  Meteorology and Environmental Predictions (CMEP),
  Faculty of Sciences Faculty of Agriculture
  University of Novi Sad, Novi Sad, Serbia
• Assistant Prof. Zivojin Petrovic, Faculty of
  Agriculture, Department of Agroeconomics and
  Rural Sociology, University of Novi Sad, Novi
  Sad, Serbia
• Prof. Zoran Keserovic, Faculty of Agriculture,
  Department of Fruit and Grape Growing, University
  of Novi Sad, Novi Sad, Serbia

Vienna, 14-16 February 2007, Project Meeting
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Partner 4
Participants

• Dr Radivoje Jevtic, Plant Protection Department,
  Institute for Field and Vegetable Crops, Novi
  Sad, Serbia
• Assistant prof. Branislava Lalic, Center for
  Meteorology and Environmental Predictions (CMEP),
  Faculty of Sciences Faculty of Agriculture
  University of Novi Sad, Novi Sad, Serbia
• M.S.c Ilija Arsenic, Center for Meteorology and
  Environmental Predictions (CMEP), Faculty of
  Sciences Faculty of Agriculture University of
  Novi Sad, Novi Sad, Serbia

Vienna, 14-16 February 2007, Project Meeting
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Partner 4
Main goals
Partner 4 from Serbia will take care about 1)
the applicants side of SSA activities for
Serbia (national project implementation
activities as defined in the proposal) and 2)
leading the thematic group Adaptation to
climate-related pest and disease risks
Vienna, 14-16 February 2007, Project Meeting
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Partner 4
Climate research in Vojvodina (Serbia) Window
for climate change
1) Classical approaches 2) New approaches 3)
Equipment unit 4) Further plans
Mihailovic, D.T., Lalic, B., Arsenic, I.,
Malinovic, 2004 Climate conditions for seed
production. In Seed Production, Vol. I, Eds.
Miloevic, M., Maleevic, M., Institute for Field
and Vegetable Crops, Novi Sad, 312 pp. (In
Serbian)
Vienna, 14-16 February 2007, Project Meeting
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Voivodinas climate picture (1949-1999) averaged
for 12 places
Classical approaches

• Temperature (C ) 11.0
• Temp. (Jan.) (C ) - 0.7
• Temp. (July) (C ) 21.3
• Precipitat. (mm) 602.0
• Rel. humid. ( ) 75.0
• Cloudiness 0.56
• Evaporation (mm) 738.0
• Cfawx

Vienna, 14-16 February 2007, Project Meeting
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Regime of precipitation in Vojvodina
(1949-1999) (averaged for 12 stations)
Classical approaches
90 80 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0

Precipitation (mm)

J F
A
A S
O N D
M
M
J
J
Vienna, 14-16 February 2007, Project Meeting
Month
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Mean annual air temperature in Novi Sad
(1957-1999)
Classical approaches
Vienna, 14-16 February 2007, Project Meeting
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0.2
Classical approaches
Trends in annual air temperature (C) (1949-1999)
0.3
-0.3
0.0
0.0
0.2
-0.1
0.0
-0.4
-0.2
0.3
-0.2
Vienna, 14-16 February 2007, Project Meeting
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Classical approaches
Summer maximum (a) and winter minimum (b) trend
distribution in Vojvodina (1974-2003)
(a) Summer
(b) Winter
(Lalic et al., 2004)
Vienna, 14-16 February 2007, Project Meeting
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Number of days for air temperature for some
treshold valuesin Novi Sad (1957-1999)
Classical approaches
?max gt25??
?max gt30??
Vienna, 14-16 February 2007, Project Meeting
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continued
Classical approaches
?max gt35??
?min lt -10??
Vienna, 14-16 February 2007, Project Meeting
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Classical approaches
Driest 2000 and NATO bombing campaign over
Serbia 1999 years versus Novi Sad average
precipitation
Vienna, 14-16 February 2007, Project Meeting
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Mean annual amount of precipitation in Novi Sad
(1957-1999)
Vienna, 14-16 February 2007, Project Meeting
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Classical approaches
Trends in annual precipitation (mm) (1949-1999)
-62
-7
35
-15
17
26
79
-55
-64
27
-40
Vienna, 14-16 February 2007, Project Meeting
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New approaches
1) Methods of non-linear dynamics
Lyapunov exponent Kolomogorov entropy Kaplan-Yorke
dimension Low attractors
Rimski Sancevi (1957-1999)
(Mihailovic and Djoric, 2004)
Vienna, 14-16 February 2007, Project Meeting
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New approaches
2) Modelling tools

• Parallelized regional weather forecast
  Non-hydrostatic model Workstation Eta
• Operationally uses for weather forecast at space
  resolution 15x15 km for area of Europe with
  NCEPs GFS files for initialization and boundary
  conditions
• ECAM global climate model
• LAPS land surface scheme
• BAHUS prediction occurrence of plant diseases
• EMEP chemical model
• NEOPLANTA UV radiation model

Vienna, 14-16 February 2007, Project Meeting
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New approaches
3D simulations
(Mihailovic et al., 2004)
Vienna, 14-16 February 2007, Project Meeting
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Equipment
PC cluster Wessco-Aurelie 2.01

• 16 Intel P4 processors 1.7 GHz, 250 Kb cache
  memory.
• 128 Mb RAM.
• 100 Mbps LAN network.
• MPI libraries for parallelization.

Vienna, 14-16 February 2007, Project Meeting
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Equipment

• 72 Intel Core Duo processors 2 GHz, 2 Mb cache
  memory, 2 GB RAM per processor, 1Gb LAN (FP6
  project - in progress)

Further plans

• FP7 project - in submission
• Risk assessment for crop damages and yield loss
  (non-ionizing, ionizing and plant diseases) seen
  through climate change optics
• The letter of intention will be send to groups

Vienna, 14-16 February 2007, Project Meeting
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Partner 4
Vojvodina The most vulnerable region to climate
change in Serbia
Climate change can affect agriculture (1) in
soil-plant processes (2) in crop development (3)
weeds, pests, and diseases (4) in economic and
social effects
Vienna, 14-16 February 2007, Project Meeting
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Vulnerability
Serbia, particularly Vojvodina (the highest level
of agricultural production), at this moment
is VULNERABLE ON CLIMATE CHANGE IMPACTS THROUGH
THE FOLLOWING POINTS (3) weeds, pests, and
diseases and partly yield loss (4) economic and
social effects
1) economic and social disparities 2) greater
economic and individual dependence on
agriculture 3) widespread poverty 4) inadequate
technologies 5) transition problems Impacts of
climate change are more emphasized
Vienna, 14-16 February 2007, Project Meeting
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Agriculture advisory services reports spring
frost event damage (2002)
Vulnerability
(Lalic, 2004)
Vienna, 14-16 February 2007, Project Meeting
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Agriculture advisory services reports spring
frost event damage (2002)
Vulnerability
(Lalic, 2004)
Vienna, 14-16 February 2007, Project Meeting
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Vulnerability
Vienna, 14-16 February 2007, Project Meeting
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Vulnerability
Observed changes in frequencies of plant diseases
occurrence as consequence of possible climate
change in Serbia
Diseases caused by phytopatological fungi
Alternaria spp. and Fusarium spp. (requiring
high temperature with an optimum of 30 0C for
their development - in the last ten years
this condition is often satisfied in Serba)
Alternaria spp. Alternaria blight on
sunflower - yield reduction 50-60 Diseases
caused by Alternaria spp. (Alternariosis)
wheat, tomato, carrot and etc.
Vienna, 14-16 February 2007, Project Meeting
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Vulnerability
Fusarium spp.

• (diseases occurring after drought or spring high
  temperature)
• Head blight of cereals seed yield reduction
  50-60
• Cercospora beticola
• (night temperature gt150C - very frequent in the
  last 10 years
• in Serbia)
• Cercospora leaf spot on sugar beet increasing
  the number
• of fungicide treatments protection cost up to 10
  EUR/ha without
• other costs
• Venturia inequalis
• Apple scab
• Podosphera leucotricha and Uncicula necator
• Downy mildew (apple and grape)

Vienna, 14-16 February 2007, Project Meeting
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Adaptation
Adaptation on climate change in Serbia
At this moment we can say THERE ARE NOT
SYSTEMATIC MEASURES FOR ADAPTATION ON CLIMATE
CHANGE IN (1) agriculture as well as other
vulnerable segments of activities and (2)
lifting the level of awareness of people involved
in primarily food production except
Old cross breading programs for wheat resistant
on high temperature and recent rural sociology
research about extension services in Vojvodina
Vienna, 14-16 February 2007, Project Meeting
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Adaptation
Overview done only with the employees in the
Extension Service of Vojvodina (Serbia) 13
Agricultural stations with 207 experts 199
experts were interviewed 60 questions with
different scale of offered possibilities Aim
(a) Reform of extension services in Vojvodina
(Serbia) in the transition period (b)
Establishing the neediness of the farmers for
knowledge based on the opinion of agricultural
experts in Vojvodina (Serbia) in the transition
period (c) Establishing the optimal way for the
knowledge transfer to farmers
Vienna, 14-16 February 2007, Project Meeting
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Adaptation
Questions related to the educational structure of
the interviewed experts
Petrovic et al. (2005)
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Question No.12Considering which problems did
farmers ask for advice?Please select numbers in
presented columns. Numbers 1,2,3 represent
FREQUENCY OF HELP/ADVICE REQUESTS considering
specific problem
Adaptation
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Question No.22 Based on experience you have in
your local area, what is your opinion about
farmers knowledge in the following areas?Please
select numbers in presented columns. Numbers 1,
2, 3 represent LEVEL OF FARMERS KNOWLEDGE in
specific areas.
Adaptation