Analytical Support for Decision Making in the Security Sector

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Analytical Support for Decision Making in the
Security Sector

• Integration of C2 and MS elements in CAX for
  Crisis Management
• (federation management)
• Dr. Velizar Mateev Shalamanov, Institute of
  Parallel Processing BAS
• Sofia 1113, Akad. G. Bonchev Str., Bl. 25 A,
  IPP-BAS, BULGARIA
• Telephone [phone] Telefax 359 (2)
  8707273
• Email Address Shalamanov_at_acad.bg

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Outline

• CAX based Model for Concept Development and
  Experimentation
• MS Capabilities of CAX Environment
• CAX Federation Management
• This publication is supported by NATOs
  Scientific Division in the framework of Science
  for Peace Program - Project SFP-981149
  (2005-2007)
• CoE in Operational Analyses (http//www.gcmarshall
  .bg/sfp981149/)

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CAX based Model for Concept Development and
Experimentation
Scenario Development
Concept Development list of principles and
options
Strategic Review Process White paper
Operational Architecture
Analysis, Assessment, Lessons, Recommendations
Model Environment Set-up
CAX / MAX
Pre-exercise Training
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Training as a Tool for Change Management in Third
Generation of Security Sector Reform

• Building of Integrated Security Sector as Goal of
  Third Generation Security Sector Reform
• Defense (Sovereignty, Expeditionary Operations,
  Territorial defense)
• Public Order and Security
• Emergency Management / Consequence Management
• Diplomacy / protection abroad
• Information operations
• Key Pillar of Integrated Security Sector -
  Defense Against Terrorism and Consequence
  Management (Crisis Management)
• Role of Training in Change Management

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Third Generation SSR for Integrated Security
Sector
MoFA
MoD
MoFA
MoD
MoI
MoEM
Special Services
MoI
MoEM
Integrated Security Sector
Special Services

• One Ministrys Operation
• Defense
• Public order
• Emergency management
• Diplomacy
• Information

Complex Crisis Management Operations of the
Integrated Security Sector
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Training as a Tool for Change Management
Individual Training
General Education / Training
Joint CAX Planning
Pre-exercise Training
CAX
Lessons Learned Analysis
Specialized Tactical Training
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• CAX are main tool for training and respectively
  change management of complex systems. Integrated
  emergency management system is a typical element
  of complex adaptive system, which needs effective
  change management internally and at the same time
  is an effective change management tool for the
  whole security sector in transition from
  traditional national security to civil security
  concept.
• CAX requires integration of traditional C2 system
  with MS tools to provide real testbed for new
  concepts and new technologies including the key
  element people in the loop.

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MS Capabilities of CAX Environment

• MS elements in General Architecture of JTSAC
• Planning and Analysis Cell
• Planning and resource management
• Assessment of CAX
• White Cell / Simulation cell
• Concept to scenario transition
• Simulation of scenario and environment
• Simulation of IEWS/Notification System
• Operations Center
• Analytical Cell DMS tools
• Communications Cell planning and management tolls
• Integration between scenario MS and C2 system

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Architecture of Joint Training Simulation and
Analysis Center in Civil-Military Emergency
Planning / Response (JTSAC-CMEP)
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MS in JTSAC Service Oriented Architecture
Emergency Operations Center
White Cell
Information Fusion and Presentation
Scenario Modeling
Basic IM tools for EMS
Scenario Simulation
Environment Modeling And Simulation, incl. IEWNS,
Network
Decision Making Support
Planning
Assessment
WIS server
Meta simulation data
MS Server
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MS in Planning and Lessons Learned Drafting

• Life Cycle of CAX
• Key role of economic dimension and PPP
• Resource Management / Contracting
• Knowledge Management
• Business Continuity Management

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MS in CAX Planning
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MS in CAX Assessment
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Need for proxy organization

• BAS and JTSAC role
• Cooperation with NATO
• NSC
• RTO
• Cooperation with EU
• DG Environment
• 6 and 7 FP
• Cooperation on bilateral basis
• Regional (SEE, WBSA) cooperation

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CAX and Real C2

• CAX without real C2 system
• CAX with real C2 System
• Direct link
• C2 gt MS
• MS gt C2
• MS ? C2
• Link through air gap and human processing
• Trainees
• Support staff
• Combined

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CAX Federation
International Organizations
MS tools or real C2 of
Scenario Development
MoI
MoD
MoSPDA
MoFA
PMA and CBM
Federation Network BUS
Scenario Simulation
Design and MS of the Technology Diagrams as well
as the Network and Comms / Info Assurance
MHS
Internet
DMS
GIS
WIS
e GRID Computing resource
DB
IDS
Government Security Council, Standing Committee
on Protection of Population Integrated Security
Sector
Natural Environment MS from BAS Institutes
PMA Planning, Management and Assessment CBM
Continuity of Business Management DMS Decision
Making Support MS Modeling and Simulation DB
Data base GIS Geographic Information System
e-GRID European RD network of computing
resources
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Three critical elements

• There are four critical elements in CAX
  architecture
• simulation cell
• operations cell
• analytical cell
• comms cell
• that need conceptual, information, hardware and
  software integration in order to support
  realistic flow of the training process.

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Key mechanism

• Current paper explores a model of such
  integration based on static and dynamic
  technological diagrams with distributed nodes in
  these four cells.
• In normal C2 system all nodes will sit in
  operations and analytical cell with tendency to
  have as much as possible of them in the
  analytical cell providing scientific best
  solution for problems arising during crisis
  management scenario.
• In exercise simulation cell has to cover all
  nodes that is impossible to be covered by
  operations and analytical cells.
• So in one end is a system with participants in
  the exercise only looking at closed simulation
  run by simulation cell, without any input from
  operations or analytical cell.

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Next step is

• when we have some nodes implemented in analytical
  or operations cell and at the other end is a full
  C2 system where there are no elements in
  simulation cell all of the nodes are
  implemented in operations and analytical cell.

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Interoperability patchwork

1. Memorandum of Understanding between organizations
2. Standard Operating Procedures / Documents
3. Scenario as event / message list (Operational
   Architecture related)
4. Basic MHS/WIS/IDS to support interagency
   cooperation on proxy basis
5. GIS and DB (common for all organizations on proxy
   basis)
6. Environment simulation from different BAS
   Institutes hydrology, meteorology, seismology,
   remote sensing,
7. Internet simulated comms and computing power
8. CAX Federation BUS management based on
   Technological Diagrams
9. Integrated Implementation Plan and Balance Score
   Card Assessment

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Conclusions - I

1. Growing number of new and diverse concepts need
   for rapid experimentation and adaptation
2. Horizontal nature of the new concepts need for
   cross culture training
3. Key element in concept implementation / change
   management is the personnel people in the loop
   model for experimentation is needed
4. Low cost and flexibility of training environment
   is a prerequisite for large scale implementation
5. CAX and MAX balance in training and
   experimentation is needed

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Conclusions - II

• Evolutionary development (prototyping) and rapid
  implementation of the results of experimented
  concepts is required (CoE-OA gt JTSAC-CMEP gt EU
  TACOM SEE-2006 gt IEMS FS example)
• Integration of efforts of Administration /
  Forces, RD / ET academic institutions and
  business based on MS environment is a must
• Proxy Organization is needed to provide patchwork
  interoperability between all participant in
  federation
• JTSAC-CMEP is a tool set to provide environment
  for federation management