Status of Food Aid Needs and Availabilities and Future Food Security Projections

1
Status of Food Aid Needs and Availabilities and
Future Food Security Projections

• Marc J. Cohen
• International Food Policy Research Institute
• Alliance for Food Aid International Food Aid
  Forum
• Washington, DC
• December 5, 2007

2
852 Million People are Food Insecure
Source FAO
3
Ag Production has Outpaced Population Growth (so
far)
Source FAO
4
But Poverty Keeps People from Buying or Producing
Food

• About 1 billion people in the developing world
  live on less than 1 per day (PPP)
• The global under a dollar poverty rate fell from
  29 percent in 1990 to 18 percent in 2004
• 2.5 billion people half the developing worlds
  population live on less than 2 per day

Source World Bank
5
Hidden Hunger Iron Deficiency

• Kills 100,000 mothers a year during childbirth
• Impairs mental development and learning capacity
  in childhood and adolescence
• Limits the capacity to perform physical labor

3.5 billion people in the developing world are
iron deficient
Source SCN
6
Vitamin A Deficiency in Pre-School Children
Consequences Blindness, infections, death
Source Micronutrient Initiative and UNICEF 2005
7
Long run commodity prices have been declining
will this trend continue?
Source FAO
8
Cereal and Oil Prices, 2000-07
Sources FAO and IMF
9
World Cereal Stocks, 2000-2007
Source FAO
10
Prices Stocks Drive Downfood Aid Tonnage
Source WFP
11
Emergency Assistance Continues to Dominate Food
Aid Flows
In million tons
Source WFP
12
Food Aid Flows by Type in 2006
Source WFP
13
2007 U.N. Humanitarian Appeal

• Requested 4 billion
• 27 million beneficiaries
• In 29 countries

Source OCHA
14
Are Appeals Falling on Deaf Ears?

• Sector of 2007 Appeal Covered
• Ag 42
• Ed 24
• Food 85
• Health 40
• Water Sanitation 38
• Mine Action 96
• Human Rights/Protection/
• Rule of Law 31

Source OCHA
15
Is the World Getting More Peaceful?
Source Human Security Report
16
Looking ahead
17
Policy Issues

• GMOs
• Food vs. Cash/LRP
• Monetization
• Role of WTO in food aid
• FAC Commitments
• Humanitarian Reform
• Improving Needs Assessment

18
WFS MDG Targets Moving in the Wrong Direction
with Business as Usual
Source FAO
19
Per Capita Daily Calorie Availability
Source IFPRI
20
Child Malnutrition
Source IFPRI
21
A Water Crisis Scenario

• Escalating competition over water resources could
  lead to
• 10 decline in world cereal production
• and increase in cereal prices

Source IFPRI-IMPACT simulations
22
A Water Crisis Scenario

• Escalating competition over water resources could
  lead to
• 10 decline in world cereal production
• and increase in cereal prices

Source IFPRI
23
Climate Change

• Will probably mean more frequent and intense
  droughts and floods
• Means increased need for humanitarian assistance
• Flooding especially likely due sea level rise
• Risks to poor will increase markedly
• Depend more on local water and food supplies, and
  are especially vulnerable
• Negative health consequences likely

Source IPCC
24
Ag Impacts

• Warmer and drier weather in Africa will have a
  severely negative impact on agriculture food
  security
• Multiple stresses, low adaptive capacity
• Negative impacts on ag also likely in LAC
• Negative impacts on global fisheries

Source IPCC
25
Ag Adaptation Strategies in Africa

• Climate change likely to reduce earnings from
  both dryland crops and livestock herding
• Irrigated crop production in cooler parts of
  continent relatively insulated from effects of
  climate change
• Increasing irrigation from its very low base
  could be an adaptation strategy

Source IPCC
26
Impact of Climate Change on Cereal Production,
1990-2080 ( change)

•  -0.6 to -0.9
• 2.7 to 9.0
• -3.3 to -7.2
• -2.5 to -7.8
• -18.2 to -22.1
• -3.9 to -7.5
• 5.2 to 12.5

 World Developed countries Developing
countries Southeast Asia South Asia Sub-Saharan
Africa Latin America
Source Tubiello Fischer
27
Impact of Biofuel Demand on Prices in 2020 (
Increase)
Biofuel Expansion
Drastic Biofuel Expansion
Crop

• Cassava 11.2 26.7
• Maize 26.3 71.8
• Oilseeds 18.1 44.4
• Sugar 11.5 26.6
• Wheat 8.3 20.0

Source IFPRI
28
Impact of Biofuel Demand on Calorie Availability
in 2020 ( change)
Source IFPRI
29
Child Malnutrition under Ag ST Scenarios
Source IFPRI
30
Millennium Development Goal Cut Hunger in Half
by 2015

• Meeting the MDG hunger target in Sub-Saharan
  Africa will require a 94 boost in anticipated
  investment levels for irrigation, rural roads,
  education, agricultural research, and clean water
• 
  
  

Source IFPRI