Adaptive integrated assessment of land use in Mexico

1
Adaptive integrated assessment of land use in
Mexico

• Steven M. Manson manson_at_umn.edu
• Department of Geography umn.edu/manson
• University of Minnesota
• 414 Social Sciences
• 267 - 19th Avenue South
• Minneapolis, MN 55455

ARGCC, OSU October 2003
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GEC Unanswered Questions

• Uncommon futures
• Equity
• Vulnerability
• Sustainability
• Land use/cover change (LUCC)
• Focus of key adaptive strategies
• Global change component
• Local impacts
• Politics/Power

(IPCC 2001)
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(Agarwal 1991)
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Southern Yucatan Peninsular Region (SYPR)
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Timeline (1960 ? Today)
Immigration
Big Projects
Diversification
Debt Crisis
Oil Boom
Calakmul
1980
2000
Route 186
1960
6
1987
1997
Land use 1338 km2 / 7.7
Land use 1954 km2 / 11.3
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SYPR Integrated Assessment (SYPRIA)
Concepts
Institutional Analysis and Development
Bounded Rationality Social Rationality
Ecological Findings Landscape Ecology
Theory
Model Components
Agent-Based Model System Model
Agent-Based Model Artificial Intelligence
Methods
Cellular Model
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Data
Archival Land use Institutions Climate
Survey Household Labor Production Institutions
Ecological Structure / function Nutrient
flows Biodiversity
Spatial Satellite imagery (1975 2000) Aerial
photography (1969, 1980s) Environmental GIS
layers Land-use/cover maps (1970 2000)
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Environment

• Environment
• Endogenous functions
• Exogenous impacts
• Cellular model
• States in spatial factors
• Rules

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Actors

• Actors
• Smallholders
• Bounded rationality
• Agent-based model
• Actions
• Decision making
• Rules/Heuristics
• Linear estimation
• Genetic programming

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Institutions

• Institutions
• Influence actors
• Channel drivers
• Agent-based model
• Direct change of actor resources
• Indirect change of spatial factors

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Example Dynamics
Example Simulation
Year 1
Year 2
Year 3
Year 4
Year 5
Actor plants on available land
Current field invaded by weeds
Actor plants on next parcel
Field invaded by weeds no more land available
Institution grants land access OR Actor leaves
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SYPR Integrated Assessment (SYPRIA)
Concepts
Institutional Analysis and Development
Bounded Rationality Social Rationality
Ecological Findings Landscape Ecology
Theory
Model Components
Agent-Based Model System Model
Agent-Based Model Artificial Intelligence
Methods
Cellular Model
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Model scenarios scenarios vary along actor,
environmental, and institutional lines. Model
outcomes aggregate results of the modeled
subsystems (actors, institutions, environment)
can be applied to assessment of adaptive
strategies.
(a) Spatially-explicit mappings of LUCC
(b) Correlation analysis
(c) Statistics for individual households
Factors Importance Population
7.30 Environment 6.85 Institutions 28.33 Ejida
l 12.86 Market 15.47 Land Use/Cover
7.52 Fragmentation 20.45 Distance 20.47 Cover
type 16.60 Total 100
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Outcomes Ejidal Scenarios
Real SIAM Forest Forest Ag Forest Forest
Ag Ag Ag
KIA 0.102
No ejido limits
Ejido limits
Kappa Index of Agreement (-1 to 1) Typical
model range 0.40 to 0.55
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Outcomes Agricultural Scenarios
Real SIAM Forest Forest Ag Forest Forest
Ag Ag Ag
KIA 0.091
No persistence
Agriculture persistence
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Outcomes Spatial Residuals
Real SIAM Forest Forest Ag Forest Forest
Ag Ag Ag
Ejido boundary
Roads
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Conclusion

• Regional integrated assessment model
• Actors Environment Institutions
• Multiple models of decision making
• Future research
• Greater socioeconomic ecological ties
• Local scenario-based adaptive strategies

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Adaptive integrated assessment of land use in
Mexico
Publications available from www.geog.umn.edu/cou
rses/GIS/protected/pubs.htm User/Password
geog/minnesota

• manson_at_umn.edu
• umn.edu/manson

ARGCC, OSU October 2003