OYAP Workshop for Experiential Learning Teachers

1
OYAP Workshop forExperiential Learning Teachers

• May 08, 2009
• London

2
The Demographic Challenge

• Why are we concerned?
• What are the issues?
• What can we do?
• Why do we have to act now?
• Who is the competition?
• Skills shortage or shortage of skills or both?

3
Population

• In 2006, OECD countries accounted for 18 of
  worlds population
• within OECD, United States accounted for 25,
  followed by Japan (11), Mexico (9), Germany
  (7) and Turkey (6)
• Canada accounted for 3 of OECD total
• China accounted for 20 of the worlds population
  and India for 17
• Between 1993 and 2006, the population growth rate
  for all OECD countries averaged 0.7 per annum
• Canadas population growth averaged 1.0

Source OECD Factbook 2008
4
Population
Source Ibid
5
Population Growth Rates
Canada
Source Ibid
6
Population Fertility Rates

• Total fertility rates declined dramatically over
  past few decades
• 2.7 in 1970 to 1.6 children per woman of
  childbearing age in 2005
• By 2005, total fertility rate was below its
  replacement level of 2.1 in all OECD countries
  except Mexico and Turkey

Source Ibid
7
Population Fertility Rates
Canada
Source Ibid
8
World Population 1750 to 2150
Source Wikipedia, the free encyclopaedia, 2007
9
Canada and The Worlds 15 Most Populous Countries
in 2007
The 15 most populous countries 66 of the 6.6
billion world population.
Canadas 33 million 0.5 and ranks 38 out of
236 countries.
Estimated Population in Millions, 2007
Source Wikipedia, the free encyclopaedia, 2007
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Immigration to Canada The Top 10
Total annual immigration is about 250,000 over
half from these 10 countries. Over half of
immigrants go to Ontario. Over half of Ontario
immigrants go to the GTA.
Source Citizenship and Immigration Canada, The
Monitor, 2006, Issue 2 and the Ontario Ministry
of Finance
11
Participation in Job-Related Continuing Education
and Training
Canada ranked 7th in 2003. Was 11th in 2002.
Source OECD, Education at a glance 2005, Table
C6.2
12
The Aging Population
Source HRSDC, Labour, Aging Workforce - Overview
13
The Aging Workforce

• In 2006, workers aged 55 and older accounted for
  15.3 of the total labour force, up from 11.7
  five years earlier
• baby boom generation approaching retirement age
• increased tendency for older works to participate
  in the labour force
• Median age of labour force surpassed the 40-year
  mark for the first time
• 39.5 years in 2001 to 41.2 years in 2006
• In 2006, 43.0 more individuals aged 55 to 64
  were employed compared to 2001
• Overall labour force participation for this group
  increased from 54.0 to 59.7

Sources Statistics Canada - Canadas Changing
Labour Force, 2006 Census
14
Shifting Composition of the Workforce
Source Ibid
15
Impacts on the Workforce
Source HRSDC, Labour, Aging Workforce - Overview
16
Impacts for Employers
Source HRSDC, Labour, Aging Workforce - Overview
17
Looming Labour Force Shortage

• Labour force grew by approximately 226,000 per
  year for last 25 years
• This decade will grow by 123,000 per year
• By 2010 this will have dropped to 42,000 per
  year
• By 2016 annual growth will be near zero
• Within the next decade, for every two people who
  are retiring there will be less than one person
  to take their place

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Londons Looming Workforce Shortage

• London has a greater challenge than other cities
  in Southern Ontario
• Slower population growth
• Poor retention of 25 44 year olds
• Unable to attract fair share of immigrants
  few/poor jobs for immigrants
• Unable to attract fair share of inter-city,
  inter-province migration

Sources LEDC - Workforce Development
Strategies, August 2007
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Canadas Changing Labour Force

• Manufacturing shed 136,700 jobs between 2001 and
  2006, equivalent to a 1.4 decline per year
• Shifts in production from Canada to other
  countries
• Total manufacturing employment fell from about
  2,033,200 to roughly 1,896,500
• Losses in manufacturing were concentrated in
  Central Canada
• Ontario shed 77,700 jobs (equivalent to a 1.7
  decline per year
• As a result, manufacturing accounted for 11.8 of
  the total workforce in 2006, down from 13.8 in
  2001

Sources Ibid
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Ontarios Changing Labour Force

• Employment growth in Ontario increased at a
  below-average rate of 1.5 a year (2001-2006),
  national average 1.7
• Large scale decreases in manufacturing dampened
  growth
• Windsor faced the worst declines in auto parts
  manufacturing
• Unemployment rate rose from 6.3 in 2001 to 8.3
  in 2006, one of the highest in the country
• Decline of 2,800 jobs in auto manufacturing, an
  average of 4.8 a year (2001-2006)
• The London area has lost more than 2,000 auto
  parts jobs through layoffs and closings

Sources Statistics Canada - Canadas Changing
Labour Force, 2006 Census The London Free Press,
May 20, 2008
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Apprenticeship Trends

• Numbers
• Numbers are increasing but most new activity is
  in the non-traditional occupations
• Industrial, Construction and Motive Power trades
  are down overall
• Service trades are up particularly ECE, Call
  Centre
• Incentives have improved (impact varies)

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Opportunities for OYAP

• Many companies would like help and cant afford
  employees
• New occupations may open doors for OYAP that
  werent there before the changes
• Dual Credit and SCWI initiatives may open doors
  to additional activity in the absence of
  placements

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Challenges for OYAP

• Current job market
• Time to train
• Construction ratios
• Economic shifts
• Skilled Trades Shortage the big sell the big
  letdown

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What can be Done?

• Advocacy for changes in ratios for construction
  sector
• Provision of work experience to help students
  formulate plans
• Keep an open mind about the future of skilled
  occupations
• Keep the economy in mind
• Think a generation or 2 out..

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Strategies

• Recruitment
• Use the system OYAP, Coop, Agencies, colleges,
  apprenticeships
• Let government help Job Connect, Apprentice Tax
  credits, Job fairs
• Have a workforce strategy do the math

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Strategies (cont)

• Retention
• Older workers corporate memory, flexible hours,
  ease into retirement
• New hires training, benefits, a salary
  advancement plan, apprenticeship
• Gen X, Y, Z get to know your target demographic
  remember when you were young?

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• Thank you for your attention!